Far-right leader Geert Wilders wins Dutch election: Exit poll

The anti-Islam, euroskeptic radical Geert Wilders is projected to be the shock winner of the Dutch election.

In a dramatic result that will stun European politics, his Freedom Party (PVV) is set to win around 35 of the 150 seats in parliament — more than double the number it won in the 2021 election, according to an initial exit poll.

Frans Timmermans’ Labor-Green alliance came second, winning 26 seats — a big jump from its current 17. Dilan Yeşilgöz, outgoing premier Mark Rutte’s successor as head of the center-right VVD, is on course to win 23 seats, a loss of 11, according to the exit poll by Ipsos for national broadcaster NOS.

A win for Wilders will put the Netherlands on track — potentially — for a dramatic shift in direction, after Rutte’s four consecutive centrist governments. The question now, though, is will any other parties join Wilders to form a coalition government, given that despite emerging as the largest party, he will lack an overall majority in parliament.

For the last 10 years, mainstream party leaders have refused to work with Wilders in power-sharing arrangements. However, in recent weeks he has signalled that he wanted to be part of a coalition after this election. His radical views on Islam are taking a back seat because “there are more important priorities” to deal with after the election, he has said.

His anti-Islam rhetoric, however, is still very much part of the PVV’s program for government. The party wants to ban mosques and the Quran, and forbid Islamic headscarves in government buildings. Wilders is also a hardline euroskeptic, calling for a referendum on leaving the EU.

“This exit poll is historic; it is the biggest shift we have ever seen in the Netherlands,” political scientist Tom van der Meer told national broadcaster NOS.

According to Van der Meer, three things might explain Wilders’ unexpected win. “First, we have had a center cabinet for 11 years. In response to that, voters mainly went to the flanks. Second, migration was a big theme and voters quickly think of the PVV when they think of that issue. Lastly, VVD leader Yeşilgöz opened the door to the PVV as a coalition partner. In the Netherlands, people have long been looking for a party that is more outspoken than the VVD, but can govern. Now that door to the PVV is open, they have found it.”

Even though Wilders has won the most seats, it is unlikely that he will end up as prime minister.

Yeşilgöz said on Tuesday that she ruled out supporting Wilders as prime minister if he won the largest share. And Pieter Omtzigt, whose newly formed party is projected to win 20 seats, has ruled out joining forces with Wilders at all, saying his anti-Islam policies go against freedoms of expression and religion that are enshrined in the Dutch constitution. Timmermans has also set himself firmly against supporting Wilders.

Wilders’ PVV is holding its election campaign party in a small cafe in Scheveningen, a beach town next to The Hague. The small room where the party is being held erupted in cheering when the first exit poll was announced.

The result is a big shock for PVV officials, too. The venue for the election night party was only found three days ago after Wilders made an unexpected surge in the polls.

This story is being updated.