Everywhere is war

Good Friday morning. This is Dan Bloom.

DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING THIS MORNING: In the last few minutes Rishi Sunak has arrived in Kyiv to announce a major new funding package for the Ukraine war. The prime minister will meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this morning to sign a new security pact after unveiling a £2.5 billion pledge to support Ukraine’s military forces for the coming financial year. Sunak’s trip to the war zone comes hours after he sanctioned U.K. military strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen in a completely separate conflict 2,500 miles south. As expected, 2024 shows absolutely no sign of slowing down.

Number-crunching: Downing Street said Britain’s £2.5 billion commitment to the Ukraine war marks a £200 million increase on last year’s pledge, and will support a massive increase in drone technology for Kyiv as well as long-range missiles, air defense systems and much-needed artillery ammunition. Zelenskyy has been issuing increasingly dire warnings about the need for more funds as U.S. Congress continues to prevaricate about American support for the war.

Friends forever: Sunak and Zelenskyy will today also put pen to a new U.K./Ukraine security pact which will formalize much of the support Britain has been offering, from cybersecurity to intelligence sharing and training for military troops. No. 10 said the pact commits Britain to consulting Ukraine in the wake of any future Russian invasion and providing “swift and sustained” assistance for its defense.

Message to Putin: In a statement issued shortly before 7 a.m., Sunak said Britain “will not falter” in its commitment to Ukraine. “We will stand with Ukraine,” the PM said, “in their darkest hours and in the better times to come.”

**A message from TikTok: With Project Clover, we will store our UK and EEA user data by default in new European data centres in Ireland and Norway. The first in Dublin is already online, and we will shortly begin installing and testing servers at our Norway centre.**

All eyes on the telly: Expect the first pictures of Sunak in Kyiv to start dropping any moment now. We should get a pool clip of the PM answering questions about his trip later this morning.

But please don’t forget about … The *other* war, which is now escalating rapidly in the Middle East. While you were sleeping, Britain — in conjunction with the U.S. — carried out its first military strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The rebels have been targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea in response to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. Western nations had been issuing increasingly dire warnings to the rebel groups to cease their activities or face the consequences.

Special relationship: AP reports the U.S. hit more than 60 targets at 16 sites in a “massive retaliatory strike.” For our part, the Ministry of Defense said four Typhoon jets struck two Houthi facilities — Abbs Airport and a site in nearby Bani used to launch drones. There was non-operational support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands. The attacks happened at around 11.30 p.m. Thursday night.

Evaluating: The MOD said the impact of the strikes weren’t yet clear, but “early indications are that the Houthis’ ability to threaten merchant shipping has taken a blow.”

Biden speaks: U.S. President Joe Biden warned: “I will not hesitate to direct further measures if necessary.” He said the Houthi attacks were unprecedented, used ballistic missiles, and had seen crews from more than 20 countries “threatened or taken hostage in acts of piracy.” POLITICO has an inside look at his decision here.

Brits speak: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insisted the strikes were “limited, necessary and proportionate action in self-defence” … and Defense Secretary Grant Shapps tweeted a video of the jets saying “it was our duty.”

Everyone speaks: In a joint statement, released a short time ago, the governments of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, Korea, the U.K. and U.S together condemned the “illegal, dangerous, and destabilising Houthi attacks” in the region of late. The countries say their aim is to de-escalate tensions in the Red Sea, but added: “We will not hesitate to defend lives and ensure the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats.”

WHAT NEXT? Sunak’s language suggests the strikes are designed to be one-off, not a whole campaign — for now. But he did not rule out going again in the future. In the meantime, questions will be asked about whether it will raise tensions further in the powderkeg region and push up energy prices.

Tensions like these: Sky quoted Houthi official Abdulsalam Jahaf saying “we have longed to confront America for more than 20 years … This is the holy jihad, and this is the decisive historical stage with which God honoured us to humiliate America, Britain and Israel.” Which doesn’t sound wholly ideal.

Questions to put to … Armed Forces Minister James Heappey, Labour leader Keir Starmer and Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey, who are all on morning broadcast rounds (times below).

FOR THOSE SWOTTING UP: The Guardian has decent explainers in recent days on who the Houthis are and why they’re doing this … and how all this could affect global trade.

NIGHT OF DRAMA: The cat was out of the bag after news of an urgent Cabinet call was broken by Times Political Editor Steven Swinford. The frenzy that ensued helped the story make the front pages of the Guardian, Mail, Mirror, Times, Express, Telegraph, and i.

Action stations: After COBRA and National Security Council meetings earlier in the day, Foreign Secretary David Cameron was seen entering No. 10 and the Telegraph reports he briefed ministers on the call. Keir Starmer and Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey were briefed on Privy Council terms — the former from his tour to the north west.

Awful timing: Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle was also briefed — so had to duck out of hosting a drinks do for about 100 political journalists. Unsurprisingly, word got round about where he’d gone pretty quickly.

SPEAKING OF THE COMMONS: Swinford also broke the news that parliament won’t be recalled today, something the Lib Dems (obv) and others had called for. There is no legal need for the PM to let MPs vote on military action, and Labour seems unlikely to demand one — but that doesn’t mean all MPs are delighted.

On the left: Labour group Momentum were quick out of the blocks, with MP John McDonnell saying there was “a risk of setting the region alight,” and MPs should have a vote on military action.

AND ON PRICES: Worries are growing that the 5,000-mile detours being taken by tankers will push up prices in the U.K., just as inflation was coming down. The Times mentions a Treasury assessment before Christmas that said disruption to shipping could shrink the U.K. economy by up to 0.3 percent … and the Independent’s Kim Sengupta had “Whitehall calculations” that inflation could rise by 0.2 to 0.5 percent.

IT GOES FURTHER: Another worry is how the action will go down in Israel and Gaza. Former Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt told the BBC’s The World Tonight it “will be portrayed by others … as an attack on the Palestinian interest” in general.

No, further than that: Sophia Gaston, head of foreign policy at the think tank Policy Exchange, tells Playbook: “The U.K. and allies’ actions here will be watched closely by China. Just a few days out from the Taiwan elections, it’s vital we signal our unwavering commitments to freedom of navigation operations, as these may be tested in the months to come.”

Speaking of the Taiwan election: Voting begins on Saturday in the closest-watched poll in three decades, loomed over by the threat of a more muscular China — especially if there’s victory for the ruling DPP to which Beijing is so hostile. The Guardian has a big explainer while the Henry Jackson Society had an alarming report warning of 500,000 deaths if China were to invade.

MEANWHILE AT THE HAGUE: South Africa’s ICJ case accusing Israel of genocide — which has been condemned by Israel and the U.K. government — has its second day of hearings, including Israel’s defense.

IN KING CHARLES STREET: David Cameron has an op-ed in the Guardian calling on Israel to allow more aid into Gaza, writing: “The fact is the need is too great for direct delivery via air and sea to make a significant difference in the short term. What matters is simpler: more aid delivered by land, more quickly and more effectively.”

IN SCOTLAND: The Guardian has an interview with Nadia El-Nakla, wife of Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf, who says she is “pleading” with the U.K. government to let her host her Palestinian brother. She is calling for a scheme similar to that offered to Ukrainian citizens.

LABOUR LAND

WRECKING BALL: Labour leader Keir Starmer has definitively ruled out bringing back the Birmingham to Manchester leg of the HS2 rail line that was scrapped by Rishi Sunak. Despite reports the land won’t have been sold off before the election, making it technically revivable, Starmer told the Manchester Evening News: “It’s not going to happen.”

TICK TOCK: Sunak has lobbed the political football into Labour’s … court (?) by declaring he is ready to grant the party “access talks” with the civil service to prepare for government. Your author, who broke the news along with the Times’ Aubrey Allegretti, is told Cabinet Secretary Simon Case wrote to Starmer on Thursday night saying he’s ready. Starmer will reply “in due course,” says a Labour official.

So what happens now? Starmer needs to write to Sunak asking for talks and the PM will reply saying yes. Labour insiders were confessing last month that they still weren’t ready. But shadow cabinet teams are now scrambling to finalize their policies in time for the first week of February. My colleague Aggie Chambre and I looked in depth at the odd process in a piece and podcast in December.

Mystic George: Twitter smarties were saying this means a May election, but that feels wrong to your author. It’s still less time for talks than in 2010 or 1997, even if the election is in December. Ex-Chancellor George Osborne reckons the date will be November 14.

FOR NOW: Starmer is returning from his “missions tour” in the north west with some kind of visit today. Labour want to talk about what’s billed as a big pledge to “end hospital waits for children within a Parliament” and … er … “create the healthiest and happiest generation of children ever.” Simples!

To be precise: The waiting list promise is partly spun-up from Labour’s existing health “mission” last year, which had a waiting time goal for all patients — not just kids. The new bit is that Labour would write to Integrated Care Boards telling them to “prioritize” paediatric waiting times, and Starmer would “personally monitor” the progress.

The obvious question: Since there’s no new money for today’s pledge (beyond £1.1 billion already promised), will prioritizing kids come at adults’ expense? Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting said in December that his “hope” was for a “serious reduction” in the waiting list, but that’s not a solid deadline.

Let’s ask him: Starmer is doing a mini-broadcast round starting with BBC Radio 5 Live at 7.45 a.m. He swerved the “more money” question when asked by the BBC’s Hugh Pym on Thursday night.

Into the weeds: The pledge is to ensure 92 percent of patients are treated within 18 weeks of referral in England, an NHS standard that was last hit in 2015. The other 8 percent are to reflect that there will always be some cases that take longer.

CCHQ’s standard line: Health Minister Andrea Leadsom said “in Labour-run Wales — Sir Keir’s ‘blueprint’ for the U.K. — they have the longest hospital waits in Britain.”

SORRY, NO MORE SOCIAL JUSTICE: ITV has lashed out at Labour’s loooooong-held plan to ban junk food ads before the watershed, telling the Mail it’s more likely to cut TV dramas than child obesity. That Post Office series is great for anything, eh?

OBJECTION: Starmer has been complaining to aides that the CCHQ dossier on his briefs as a barrister is ill-informed nonsense, according to Patrick Maguire’s Times column. But … a hint of caution? Maguire also hears campaign chief Morgan McSweeney has set up a “social organizing unit” in Labour HQ to post a “guerrilla rebuttal” when the leader is attacked online. Well, Jeremy Corbyn had his “outriders” …

MEANWHILE IN SNP LAND: Scotland’s First Minister Humza Yousaf is launching the SNP’s general election campaign in Glasgow from 11.30 a.m. with a short speech, one-on-one interviews with broadcasters and a press huddle.

The key message: An official says Yousaf will skirt delicately around his party’s big poll dip and instead tell people to “vote SNP for a Tory-free Scotland.” The idea is that many target seats are blue-yellow marginals. Er, don’t tell that to the central belt, where several are yellow-red. A Scottish Labour insider told my colleague Andrew McDonald this week that Labour winning more than 25 seats is now realistic.

Perhaps no wonder … Yousaf will also attack the Westminster “consensus” of “yes-men.” Plus ça change.

AND IN TORY LAND: Tory campaigns guru Isaac Levido is due to address backbenchers on the 1922 committee on Monday night, Playbook has confirmed — for the first time since he was dropped back into CCHQ to prepare for the election. He’s due to talk to them about … the latest polling. Lots of happy faces.

GOING POSTAL

IT KEEPS GOING: There’s no sign of the finally hyped Post Office scandal dying back, while the government spends weeks drawing up laws to overturn hundreds of wrongful convictions against sub-postmasters whose lives were ruined by the faulty Horizon computer system. Years of grievances that lay buried are now floating to the surface.

EXCORIATING: The BBC has trawled back through the “threats, lies and smears” the Post Office used to try to head off a 2015 Panorama report in a devastating overnight read. You don’t often see language like that in a BBC story. It really is worth your time.

Uh-oh: The Times’ Tom Witherow and Emma Yeomans have been briefed on “about 80” (!) covert recordings from 2013 that have been handed to the public inquiry. It’s claimed one shows a senior Post Office executive was preparing to brief CEO Paula Vennells that remote access to sub-postmasters’ Horizon accounts (a crucial point in the scandal) was possible … years before Vennells denied it.

Speaking of the inquiry: It continues today with a hearing on the Post Office’s approach to disclosure. That might not match the sweep of coverage for Post Office investigator Stephen Bradshaw and his denial (while dressed all in black) that he acted like a “mafia gangster.”

Not to mention … a 2010 email from the Post Office’s head of criminal law that warned launching an investigation into Horizon could put prosecutions in doubt (well, duh!) … and a 2012 internal message urging the firm to “grit its teeth and get on with prosecuting.”

More on Fujitsu: Peter Geoghegan’s Substack has taken a critical look at the professional, uh, journey of former Fujitsu chief Simon Blagden.

Lib Dem land: Lib Dem leader and former Post Office Minister Ed Davey is visiting a primary school in the north west today. A More in Common poll found 56 percent think Davey bears at least some responsibility. But … Director Luke Tryl adds: “It isn’t unusual for people to say a politician, even fictional ones, should resign.”

BAFTA AHOY: My colleague Bethany Dawson has spoken to the team behind ITV’s “Mr Bates vs the Post Office” (who thought the show would “slowly, at a later date, find an audience”), Private Eye Editor Ian Hislop, and Rebecca Thompson who broke the story at Computer Weekly.

REFLECTIVE MOOD: The Times’ Lucy Bannerman has a lovely interview with Tory peer James Arbuthnot, who fought for years for the sub-postmasters but tells her: “I achieved absolutely nothing.”

FIRST PRIZE FOR HONESTY: Ex-Chancellor George Osborne has used his podcast to ask “how on earth did I not know this was happening?” He adds: “I’ve really racked my brains and I cannot think of a single conversation I had about it or a single piece of paper that I saw about it.” Clearly he hadn’t noticed Computer Weekly … or Private Eye … or Panorama … or this entire Commons debate in 2013 … or this other one in 2015 … or, well, you get the idea.

**French journalism at its best, now in English. Le Monde dissects the stories that shape our planet, from politics to culture, with on-the-ground reporting and in-depth analysis. Explore original perspectives on world events through the lens of France’s leading newspaper. Join us on our quest to build bridges between language and culture with high-quality journalism. Welcome to Le Monde’s English edition.**

RWANDA PLAN, DAY 638

DRIP, DRIP: Tory right-wingers are now up to 54 backers for their amendments seeking to harden up the Safety of Rwanda Bill — Rishi Sunak’s gambit to get asylum seekers’ deportation flights to Rwanda off the ground. GB News’ Christopher Hope hears the key votes on their set of amendments will be Tuesday next week.

A different approach: One Nation Tory Robert Buckland’s amendments to soften the bill, by stripping out some clauses entirely, are still only in his own name — there’s no long list of backers showing off their wares. While these big lists aren’t necessary, could it be fuel, perhaps, for the theory that some One Nationers want the amendments as leverage rather than to actually pass them?

Speaking of which: One person in the right-wingers’ camp told Playbook with obvious glee: “It’s like Carry On Amending where Buckland is Kenneth Williams. You’re not supposed to reveal you don’t want to pass your amendments!”

But but but … The five families won’t like today’s Daily Mail leader column, which tells them to “swallow their pride, seek sensible improvements and ram the Bill through” rather than risking it collapse altogether.

IN THE RED CORNER: Despite opposing the Rwanda plan overall, Labour is putting a lot of focus on the details. The party’s amendments have been published overnight.

They include … to publish a full impact assessment on the costs of the bill … ensure Rwanda’s “safe” status can be altered if circumstances change … and give parliament a vote on the future of the scheme if someone accused of serious crime is returned from Rwanda to the U.K. Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper overnight called it an “extortionate con.”

It never ends: The Telegraph’s Charles Hymas has seen legal advice that says individual appeals in the European Court of Human Rights could hold up flights for three months — or judges may be “tempted to push it beyond the next election.”

Enemies everywhere: The Sun has been handed a “No. 10 dossier” from Sunak’s time as chancellor that complains he was “refusing to fund” large centers that could get asylum seekers out of hotels. No. 10 pushed back on the details.

THAT’S NOT THE LINE: The i’s Arj Singh, Times and Guardian have trawled through a document dump around the bill, and spotted that the Home Office said Rwanda still has “issues with its human rights record around political opposition to the current regime, dissent and free speech.”

WATCH OUT FOR 5 PM: Has The Sun’s Harry Cole spoilt Boris Johnson’s Friday Daily Mail column? He hears the ex-PM is “about to go tonto” on the bill (despite Sunak apparently wanting Johnson to campaign for the Tories in the election).

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Not sitting.

BREAKING: U.K. GDP figures for November have been released just now by the ONS. Though the much bigger moment of drama is next month’s quarterly figures for October to December, which might show the U.K. narrowly fell into a technical recession last year.

But remember … Whether we’re in or out of a technical recession by 0.1 percent either way might make a headline — but it makes stuff-all difference on the ground.

Also out just now: U.K. trade data for November

RAMMED JAILS: Prison population statistics are out this morning — including a monthly bulletin for December on jail capacity.

BRIDGEN LOAN: Independent MP Andrew Bridgen has now declared £4.4 million (!) in loans from Reclaim Party funder Jeremy Hosking between 2020 and 2023 after the Times asked why he hadn’t done so. The paper said the money helped fund a legal battle over the family potato farm.

HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH: Labour leader Keir Starmer took a private jet trip funded by Qatar in order to meet the kingdom’s leader last month — via the MPs’ interests and the BBC. Seems so long ago that he boycotted the World Cup because of Qatar’s human rights record, doesn’t it?

MONEY MATTERS: Investigative site DeSmog meanwhile has turned on donations by Tory ex-Chair Michael Hintze, who funded climate skeptic pressure group the Global Warming Policy Foundation. They include £3,000 to Security Minister Tom Tugendhat and £2,000 to … err … Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho.

PETROLHEAD: Tory peer and former Environment Minister Zac Goldsmith has been temporarily banned from driving (for the second time in a decade) after he was caught speeding four times last year. Via the BBC.

THAT’S THE SPIRIT: The government got through 130 bottles of wine and spirits in 2020-21 and 1,300 in 2021-22, the latest Wine Cellar report found — a drastic drop on the usual 3,000 to 5,000. Thankfully the Co-Op on the Strand filled the void. Via the Guardian.

YIKES: The Sun’s Harry Cole may be scathing of London Mayor Sadiq Khan — but he says the mayor’s Tory rival Susan Hall should be replaced in a withering column today.

Speaking of Khan: The i’s Paul Waugh has a shrewd piece pointing out his speech Thursday night on Brexit is perhaps the biggest break between Khan and Starmer — the mayor believes the U.K. should consider rejoining the single market and customs union. Never mind the gulf between him and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

ACT SURPRISED: The BBC found ousted MP Peter Bone canvassing on the doorsteps for his partner Helen Harrison — who is standing as a Conservative in the by-election to replace him. He also said he’s not suspended from the Tory party.

BACK BURNER: The i’s Chloe Chaplain hears plans to look at a “social tariff” for poorer energy customers are not a priority. Jeremy Hunt hinted as much in an interview this week.

EVERY COMRADE FOR HIMSELF? The government has begun looking at hiving off nurses from the NHS pay system onto their own scale. This was part of a promise in strike negotiations with the Royal College of Nursing. But it’s wound up other NHS unions no end, because their pay campaigns will carry less heft without the nurses rowing the same boat. More via Nursing in Practice.

POWER SURGE: The Times’ Chris Smyth has been trawling through Thursday’s nuclear roadmap and found mini nuclear plants will be allowed almost anywhere outside built-up areas.

**Reach the heights of the Alps and global policymaking conversations with us at Davos. By reading Global Playbook, POLITICO’s global newsletter, you gain unfettered access to the events shaping global policy — including the World Economic Forum. Don’t miss out — register today.**

BEYOND THE M25

BREATHING FIRE: Senedd committee members have said they’re “astonished” Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer hadn’t met under-fire S4C Chair Rhodri Williams, in a very unhappy letter that makes the Guardian.

DOGHOUSE: SNP MSP Christine Grahame is rebelling against the Scottish government’s plans to ban XL Bully dogs because it’s been … “bullied” into the decision. Via ITV.

TRUMP CARD: Ex-U.S. President Donald Trump accused the judge in his New York civil fraud case of having his “own agenda” during a fiery five-minute closing monologue — my Stateside colleagues have more. The Times has meanwhile gone through Trump’s potential picks for vice president … including governor of Arkansas and former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

BIDEN HIS TIME: U.S. President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty to nine tax-related charges as prosecutors allege he evaded £1.1 million in taxes between 2016 and 2019 — the Telegraph has more.

**A message from TikTok: One of the principles of our European data governance strategy is to store UK and EEA data locally. We’re investing billions in new data centres in Ireland and Norway, to store UK and EEA user data in Europe by default. The first data centre in Dublin is online and migration of user data to the centre has begun. We recently took possession of the first of three buildings at our data centre in Hamar, Norway, and will begin installing and testing servers shortly. Aligning with our long-term aspiration of building a sustainable business, our Norway data centre will run on 100% renewable energy and will come online next year.**

MEDIA ROUND

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey broadcast round: GB News (6.45 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.03 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.).

Labour leader Keir Starmer broadcaster round: 5 Live Breakfast (7.45 a.m.) … Radio Manchester (8.05 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (8.30 a.m.).

Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey broadcast round: GMB (6.40 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.20 a.m.) … LBC News (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Breakfast: Retired senior British Army officer Rupert Jones (7.45 a.m.) … Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik and former Deputy Chief of the Defense Staff Simon Mayall (both 9.30 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Simon Mayall (7.05 a.m.) … former Middle East policy head for the U.K.’s mission to the U.N. Carne Ross (7.10 a.m.) … Reform UK leader Richard Tice phone-in (9 a.m. until 9.30 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Crossbench peer and Big Issue co-founder John Bird (7.10 a.m.) … former MOD Director of Defense Diplomacy John Deverell (8.40 a.m.).

TalkTV Breakfast: Former Chief of the General Staff Richard Dannatt (7.05 a.m.) … former Downing Street Director of Communications Jonathan Haslam (9.20 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: How a TV drama blew up Westminster.

Daily Express: Britain and U.S. unite to strike against Iran backed rebels.

Daily Mail: U.K. blitz warning to Iran.

Daily Mirror: So proud of you.

Daily Star: Sven — I have a year to live … at best.

Financial Times: Iran raises threat to Mideast shipping lanes with seizure of oil tanker in Gulf.

i: U.K. prepares air strikes on Yemen rebels to protect food shipping.

Metro: I have a year to live. And I appreciate every day …

The Daily Telegraph: U.S. and U.K. prepare strikes on Houthi rebel bases.

The Guardian: Britain and U.S. poised to launch strikes against Houthis in Yemen.

The Independent: Investigators for the Post Office “behaved like mafia gangsters.”

The Sun: Kyle love child no two.

The Times: Airstrikes on Houthis after strife in Red Sea.

TODAY’S NEWS MAGS

The Economist: Who rules the waves?

THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY

EU Confidential: The team discuss the ongoing tug of war between Budapest and Brussels ahead of the forthcoming European Parliament election.

Power Play: POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy talks to Latvia’s Foreign Minister Krišjānis Kariņš about NATO’s plans to combat renewed Russian aggression.

Plus 6 of the other best political podcasts to listen to this weekend:

Encompass: Paul Adamson hears from Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Kings College London Lawrence Freedman about Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine.

Iain Dale All Talk: Dale is in conversation with Commons Deputy Speaker Nigel Evans about remaining neutral and his relationship with former Speaker John Bercow.

Inside Whitehall: Jonathan Gullis and James Starkie speak to Tory MP Matt Warman about the One Nation Conservatives’ history and plans for the future.

Leading: Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell talk to former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt about Europe’s future and running Belgium for a decade.

Parliament Matters: Mark D’Arcy and Ruth Fox interview Tory peer James Arbuthnot about why he believes ministers failed to act on the Post Office scandal.

Whitehall Sources: The team is joined by Labour MP Kevan Jones to discuss campaigning for sub-postmasters.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Light cloud and a gentle breeze. Highs of 7C.

Big freeze: Cold health alerts from the U.K. Health Security Agency and the Met Office have been extended until January 18, with all of England under a yellow warning.

SPOTTED … Political hacks in the gilded Speaker’s House for drinks with Lindsay Hoyle (before he ducked out to be briefed on warfare). His big new official portrait on the wall, the Commons speaker welcomed new lobby Chair Harry Cole, whose unopposed elevation to the job was “less transparent than electing a pope.”

Wot won it: Ex-blogger-turned-Sun Pol Ed Cole, now very much part of the Establishment, said: “I was more than happy to sell out my radical beliefs once I heard you get your name in gold on the wall.” But he said Hoyle had been “on a journey” too: “Mr Speaker is more PLO these days than PLP.”

Anyway, the real question: Will we spend 173 words reviewing the canapés again? No, thank God. Your author has locked Emilio in a cupboard to keep him out of trouble. Plus, I had to run out to take calls, so didn’t eat a single one.

NEW GIG: Tindle Newspapers Chief Executive Danny Cammiade has started as News Media Association chair, calling for the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill and the Media Bill to be delivered.

JOB ADS: The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is hiring a deputy director of strategy development.

CULTURE VULTURE: Nine artworks from Newcastle’s Laing Art Gallery have gone on display in Downing Street for a year. Pics here.

LISTEN TO: The portrayal of elections and politics on screen is the topic of Radio 4’s Screenshot, broadcast at 7.15 p.m. tonight.

FRIDAY FILM CLUB: Ridley Scott’s 1991 classic film Thelma & Louise is on BBC One tonight at 11.30 p.m. … and 2014 biopic The Theory of Everything, about the life of the late physicist Stephen Hawking, is on BBC Two on Sunday at 10 p.m.

NOAH’S CULTURE FIX: Infinite Life, a play set in northern California, closes at the Dorfman Theatre on Saturday at 7.30 p.m. … A World in Common, displaying contemporary African photography, closes at the Tate Modern on Sunday … and artist Sarah Lucas’ exhibition Happy Gas closes at Tate Britain, also on Sunday.

NOW READ: The latest Economist pens an obituary to the housing ladder, saying it is an idea “around two decades out of date” now broken up for firewood.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Andrew McDonald.

WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Dan Bloom.

BIRTHDAYS: Eastbourne MP Caroline Ansell … Scottish Tory MSP Maurice Golden … Lib Dem peer Sally Hamwee … retired Labour peer Jennifer Hilton … Amazon Executive Chair Jeff Bezos turns 60.

Celebrating over the weekend: Commons Leveling-Up Committee Chair Clive Betts … Opposition Whip Mary Glindon … ITV News at Ten Chief Anchor Tom Bradby … LBC presenter James O’Brien … Mail columnist Stephen Glover … the Guardian’s Health Editor Andrew Gregory … former Tate Modern Director Frances Morris … Shadow Deputy Commons leader Nick Smith … former leader of the Lib Dems in the European Parliament Catherine Bearder … Crossbench peer Nigel Crisp … former U.K. Consul General to Hong Kong and Macao Andrew Heyn … Scotch Whisky Association Chief Executive Mark Kent … Retired diplomat Simon Smith.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Jack Lahart, reporter Noah Keate and producer Seb Starcevic.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters