Sunday Crunch: Keeping those promises

Опубликовано: Sunday, 03 December 2023 13:00

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By ANNABELLE DICKSON

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Good Sunday afternoon. This is Annabelle Dickson in the Crunch hot seat.

Don’t forget: Tune in to tonight’s Politics at Jack and Sam’s — the essential Sunday night briefing with POLITICO’s U.K. Editor Jack Blanchard and Sky News’ Sam Coates — to find out what might be in store this week.

THINGS TO KNOW

KEEPING THOSE PROMISES: Two of Rishi Sunak’s big pre-election pledges are back in the spotlight today. Health Secretary Victoria Atkins has been suggesting the PM’s plan to cut NHS waiting lists could be achieved if doctors stop striking, while Home Secretary James Cleverly is on standby to head to Rwanda to seal a new treaty with the African nation as soon as this week — a key plank of Sunak’s attempt to salvage his “Stop the Boats” commitment.

Meanwhile: The man vying for Sunak’s job Keir Starmer has been making mischief with a Telegraph article praising traditional Labour nemesis Margaret Thatcher. Yes, you read that right, and more on that bombshell below.

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Worrying times: As temperatures plummet (your Crunch author is currently draped in two blankets), Atkins, who was on the morning media round, was presented with a slew of statistics backing up many voters’ own experiences which suggest the NHS is in a bit of a pickle. She told the BBC the government would do everything it could to avoid a winter crisis, but acknowledged “the worry that people have, particularly when an accident or something like that happens.”

Line to take: Atkins insisted there was “record funding” going into the NHS, and highlighted plans to put 800 new ambulances on the road and install 5,000 extra beds in hospitals. She was also keen to stress the “extremely constructive start” to her relationship with striking consultants and junior doctors.

So what about the waiting list promise? Asked about Sunak’s bold pledge at the beginning of the year that “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly,” Atkins said the government was “looking to meet those targets,” but she went on to say: “I need, please, the consultants to pass this settlement that we’ve put forward. I hope very much that doctors in training will be able to reach a settlement with us as well.” It very much looked like she could be laying the groundwork for striking workers to be the scapegoat if that target isn’t achieved.

Pinch of salt: On the BBC, Royal College of GPs chair Kamila Hawthorne suggested people take that with a “pinch of salt” pointing out national think tanks had concluded waiting list problems were not just due to industrial action. She also warned that despite all the preparations “if we have another Strep A crisis as we did last winter, we’re really in trouble.”

Going private: On whether she had gone private for healthcare, Atkins was more forthcoming than her tetchy boss Sunak, who when asked a similar question in January refused to say, insisting it was not really relevant. Her answer: She had once used it for a second opinion many years ago.

Independently minded: On her husband’s role in sugar giant ABF Sugar, Atkins reiterated she took the perception of conflict seriously and had declared and recused herself, but also stressed: “I’m an independently-minded woman.”

Meanwhile Down Under: Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting has been talking to the Telegraph about his own plans for neighborhood health teams, inspired by the Aussies.

TO RWANDA WITH LOVE: Reports in the Sunday Times that the U.K. government will hand over at least an extra £15 million to secure an immigration treaty were branded “speculation” by Atkins — although not denied. Multiple papers think Cleverly could head to the Rwandan capital Kigali this week, and that is certainly not being ruled out by officials close to discussions. Downing Street officials say they are “working quickly and the Treaty and then emergency legislation will be brought forward as soon as we can.”

On the legislation: It’s the proposed law to declare Rwanda a safe country. Atkins was keen to play down expectations of its imminent publication, telling Sky’s Trevor Phillips: “It will take a little bit of time to draw up this legislation because we want to make sure it’s in the right form.”

Blame the blob: Civil servants are in the firing line, again. Telegraph sources claim ministers are facing resistance in Whitehall to the “semi-skimmed” option of dis-applying the U.K. Human Rights Act in relation to the safety of Rwanda. This has come “in the form of questions repeatedly being raised around its legitimacy, conflicting advice and attempts to dissuade ministers,” the paper explains.

PITCHING AND PINCHING TORY VOTERS: Keir Starmer has used a Sunday Telegraph article to make a pretty blatant attempt to appeal to wavering Tory voters. The Labour leader’s claim “Margaret Thatcher sought to drag Britain out of its stupor by setting loose our natural entrepreneurialism” wins him the front page headline: “Starmer piles praise on Thatcher.” Mission accomplished.

Telegraph reader bingo: In the piece, Starmer also accuses the government of “squandered economic opportunities,” and of a failure “to realize the possibilities of Brexit.” He says recent high immigration figures are a “betrayal of their promises.”

Defending Keir: Shadow Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, who comes from a mining town in County Durham, explained that: “I wouldn’t support her [Thatcher’s] politics; I would recognize she was that force for change.”

Enjoying that one: On Sky, Atkins had fun when asked about the piece, telling Phillips: “Don’t forget he wasn’t appealing to Margaret Thatcher’s entrepreneurial spirit when he was courting votes from the hard left, and I suspect the great lady herself would view a man who is trying to ride on the coattails of her success with the following words ‘No, No, No.’” Chapeau to whoever came up with that one in the early hours of Sunday morning.

ISRAEL UNDER PRESSURE: On the international stage, there is plenty of speculation about whether U.S. patience with Israel has run out. The Israeli government has faced some pretty strong calls from high profile U.S. figures this weekend to avoid further harm to Palestinian civilians. Speaking at COP28, Vice President Kamala Harris said too many innocent Palestinians had been killed in Gaza. Back home, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the Israeli government risks “strategic defeat” in Gaza if it doesn’t do more to protect civilians.

We’re trying: The BBC had key Israeli adviser Mark Regev on, and he insisted Israel was “making a maximum effort, maybe even unprecedented in similar circumstances.”

Happening this afternoon: A Together for Humanity March is being held outside Downing Street at 3 p.m. this afternoon. It is trying to bring together the two sides and says the vigil will “oppose antisemitism and anti-muslim hatred.”

Drone flights: The big domestic angle this weekend is news that U.K. planes are flying over Gaza. Atkins told Sky the U.K. had sent some “unmanned and importantly unarmed surveillance drones into the region to help look for hostages” because they wanted to do “everything we can to help find those hostages and to secure their release.” She insisted in the same interview that U.K. support for Israel was “steadfast.”

ROLLING THE PITCH: Heather Hallett and Hugo Keith — the chair and lead lawyer of the COVID-19 inquiry — may well have been choking on their cornflakes this weekend after chatty pals of Boris Johnson were busy briefing the weekend papers on the case for the ex-PM’s pandemic defense. It somewhat takes the wind out of the sails of his big appearance, although we can still expect some loaded moments on Wednesday.

Soz: Saturday’s Times got the scoop that Johnson will admit he “unquestionably made mistakes” over COVID, including by being far too complacent at the beginning of the pandemic, while also insisting he was ultimately a lifesaver. Today, the Sunday paper’s Tim Shipman has a further download of Team Johnson’s thinking, with a bit of ally spin thrown in. One minister from the Johnson government tells the paper after seeing his written evidence: “I think he gives a good account of himself, actually.” The Sun on Sunday has a quote from a Johnson ally on claims from ex-adviser Dominic Cummings that he behaved like a trolley: “The only trolley involved were the trolleys full of vaccines Boris helped deliver for the U.K.”

Look over there: The Mail on Sunday says Johnson has “told friends he is puzzled about why the hearings are not examining whether the virus’ origins were natural or as a result of an accidental leak from a Wuhan institute.”

Unimpressed: The Observer has spoken to the families of those who lost loved ones to COVID-19, who will be there en masse, and says they are planning to greet Johnson on his arrival with photographs of those who died.

QUICK-FIRE CATCH-UP

CONTAMINATED BLOOD PLAN: Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said Labour will back an amendment to the Victims and Prisoners Bill this week which would establish a body to administer compensation to the victims of the contaminated blood scandal. On the BBC, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins said it was right for the government to “take our time” and await the inquiry report and think through its consequences in terms of whether legislation is needed. The Sunday Times says Reeves’ backing for the amendment will leave Sunak “facing defeat” tomorrow.

RIGHT ROYAL ROW: Most of the front pages are dominated by the big Royal race row after the Dutch version of the controversial new book Endgame named the two senior Royals alleged to have discussed the skin color of Prince Harry and Meghan’s first child, Archie, before he was born. Parliament is going to get some Royal action this week, though. The Mail on Sunday says Conservative MP Bob Seely is putting forward a Bill that could deny the couple their Duke and Duchess standing.

COP PROGRESS: World leaders departed the COP28 climate summit last night with something to show — a pledge by oil and gas companies to reduce emissions, and a commitment by 118 countries to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and double energy savings efforts. POLITICO’s Zia Weise and Charlie Cooper have the detail, and the skepticism from those who cry “greenwashing.”

Not pulling his punches: Al Gore, the former U.S. vice president, does not pull his punches on what he thinks of Rishi Sunak in an interview with the Observer. He brutally tells the paper the U.K. had normally “punched above its weight” in international affairs, but that “when it is backsliding, it tends to sometimes give permission to other nations to backslide more than they might otherwise do,” he said. Not happy reading for a PM who is so desperate to be part of the global statesman club.

On the domestic front: Sunak is under pressure from more than 40 Conservative MPs and peers in the Net Zero Scrutiny Group who want him to drop a vote on Monday to approve net zero quotas for the sale of electric cars as they claim it is “likely to cause enormous harm” to companies and consumers. The Sunday Telegraph has the details.

WASHINGTON BOUND: New Foreign Secretary David Cameron has tee-ed up a visit to Washington on Wednesday to bang the drum for Ukraine with an op-ed in the Sun on Sunday warning: “If Putin isn’t stopped in Ukraine he will be back for more.” A message to waving Republicans as much as domestic Brits. ICYMI my POLITICO colleagues Eleni Courea and Esther Webber had a piece on fellow ex-PM Liz Truss being an unlikely diplomatic superhero on her visit to the U.S. last week.

Labour’s defense fears: Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey has a fascinating interview with the Sunday Times about his fears the U.K. lacks the equipment necessary to deter Russian aggression in the “High North” above the Arctic Circle — which could open up thanks to the impacts of climate change.

SURVIVING THE STRESS: The Sunday Times interview with former Deputy Prime Minister Therese Coffey on how she almost died from a brain abscess is a must-read. Her belief that it was the stress of being a minister should be food for thought for many in SW1.

TELEGRAPHING TRUSS: Liz Truss is the latest high profile figure to wade in and call for the government to act over the proposed takeover of the Telegraph by an Abu Dhabi-backed fund. The ex-PM makes her comments in the Telegraph, of course.

Also on her agenda: Truss is also launching a bill this week to stop teenagers from being given hormone treatment before they reach 18. The Sun on Sunday has more.

EDUCATION MPS: A new service to help MPs spot conspiracy theories is being set up by the House of Commons library. House of Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, who has been involved in its formation, told the Telegraph it had been prompted by a flood of online disinformation.

ON THE BRINK: Another potentially huge headache for the PM and Chancellor could be looming early next year with more local councils potentially on the brink of bankruptcy. Remember these are the organizations providing the really tangible day-to-day stuff like social care, road repairs, housing and bin collections. The Sunday Mirror’s Mikey Smith says that with no new money for local government in last week’s economic statement, industry sources fear councils will be “dropping like flies.”

OSBORNE’S MARBLES PLAY: Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis met with British Museum chair and ex-Chancellor George Osborne in London last Monday hours before Rishi Sunak abruptly called off his meeting with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greek newspaper “Ta Nea” reported over the weekend. According to the report, translated by my top POLITICO colleague Nektaria Stamouli, Osborne proposed shipping to Athens either one-third or half of the Parthenon Marbles held in the British Museum for a period of 10 or 15 years. In exchange, ancient Greek artifacts never seen in Britain would be sent on loan to the U.K. A British Museum spokesman said trustees had been “public and open about the fact we’re talking to the Greek government,” and hoped for an agreement “within the existing law.”

COMING ATTRACTION: Robert Buckland, the former justice minister and newly appointed chairman of the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, has told the flagship Sunday politics program on BBC Belfast that the committee is about to recommend “innovative ways” to revive Stormont after nearly two years of DUP-driven deadlock. He says the report to be published at midnight tonight — based on months of testimony from politicians in Belfast, London and Dublin — would recommend changes in “those key moments in the formation of an executive and, indeed, the start of the assembly process.” My colleague Shawn Pogatchnik writes in to say that what will be music to the ears of middle-ground moderates currently marginalized by the DUP’s blockade on government formation, Buckland said the rules governing how to establish and sustain cross-community governments at Stormont have been altered many times since the original rulebook was laid down in the Good Friday peace accord a quarter-century ago — and should change again.

INSIDE REFORM: Will Rishi Sunak be the latest leader to fall foul of a Nigel Farage-backed Tory vote stealing outfit? Unherd’s Tom McTague’s deep dive into Reform is a must-read for all SW1 strategists, although Tory MPs should be aware it could give them nightmares. McTague writes: Reform party leader Richard Tice “believes by Christmas the party will have hit 12 percent. Put bluntly, these are figures the Tory party simply cannot afford.”

MEDIA ROUND

Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): Director of Killed Women Anna Ryder … Conservative MP Selaine Saxby … Labour MP Graham Stringer … SNP MP Carol Monaghan … Playbook’s own Rosa Prince.

Westminster Hour (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.): Conservative MP Robert Buckland … Labour peer Jenny Chapman … the Institute for Government’s Jill Rutter … the i’s Hugo Gye.

WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY

ECONOMY: All-star line-up at the Resolution Foundation Economy 2030 report launch, which includes a fireside chat with Jeremy Hunt, and appearance from Labour leader Keir Starmer, from 9.30 a.m.

COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with leveling-up questions followed by the Victims and Prisoners Bill.

DIPLOMACY: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to arrive in Qatar for talks on the Middle East conflict.

CRIME: National Crime Agency Director General Graeme Biggar at the RUSI Serious and Organised Crime Conference, 9.40 a.m.

DIPLOMACY: Former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton at the foreign affairs committee talking about the Middle East and North Africa, 4 p.m.

TUESDAY

LORDS: Foreign Secretary David Cameron to take his first departmental questions.

STRIKES: Aslef drivers take strike action on the C2C and Greater Anglia rail lines.

DIPLOMACY: Gulf Cooperation Council leaders’ summit expected to be dominated by the Mideast conflict.

EDUCATION: OECD PISA 2022 results to be published.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with health and social care questions followed by an opposition debate.

WEDNESDAY

COVID-19: Boris Johnson begins two days of evidence to the COVID-19 inquiry.

STRIKE: Aslef drivers take action on the Southeastern, Gatwick Express and South Western Railway lines.

ECONOMY: Bank of England to publish its Financial Stability Report.

ONLINE SAFETY: Ofcom Chief Executive Melanie Dawes to give evidence to MPs on the public accounts committee on online safety regulation, 9.15 a.m.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Wales questions followed by PMQs and the Sentencing Bill.

ECONOMY: Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride at the work and pensions committee, 9.25 a.m.

EDUCATION: Education Secretary Gillian Keegan at the education committee, 9.30 a.m.

THURSDAY

STRIKE: Aslef drivers take action on Cross Country and GWR rail lines.

DIPLOMACY: European Union and China to hold joint summit.

COVID-19: Boris Johnson to continue his COVID-19 inquiry evidence.

COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with environment and attorney general questions followed by the business statement and general debates on tackling Islamaphobia and ownership in the Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies.

ECONOMY: Treasury Permanent Secretary James Bowler talking public borrowing at the public accounts committee, 10 a.m.

FRIDAY

STRIKES: Aslef drivers to take action on the Northern and Transpennine Express.

SATURDAY

INDUSTRIAL ACTION: TUC to hold a special congress in London to discuss how to oppose government plans to bring in minimum service levels during strikes by key sectors.

DIPLOMACY: G7 interior ministers to meet in Mito, Ibaraki.

SUNDAY

ELECTION: Egypt presidential election.

Thanks: To Jones Hayden for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.

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