Outside (and outsized) impact

Presented by Control AI

By SARAH WHEATON

PRESENTED BY

Tips, tales, traumas to @swheaton or [email protected] | View in your browser

HOWDY. We’ll start this week’s edition of EU Influence by congratulating two strangers on their excellent (justifiably paranoid) media hygiene. Two people were standing near the coffee during a Transparency International event Tuesday, talking about Guntram (or Gunther?) and his delayed departure, pending some sort of discussion by the board in Berlin — only to deliberately move somewhere else after about 30 seconds of me standing there. To them I say: well done. I was totally, intentionally eavesdropping on your conversation. If anyone from the NGO/transparency world would like to fill me in on the rest of this intrigue, hit me up: [email protected].

(OFF THE RECORD)

“Well, that’s somebody’s fuck up, not mine thankfully.”

— An unnamed Irish official, to POLITICO’s Shawn Pogatchnik, expressing the combination of relief and schadenfreude you’ve all felt watching a comms disaster from the sidelines. (In this case, the fact that Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s full statement about the release of an Israeli-Irish hostage was only visible in third-party screengrabs.)

**A message from Control AI: The EU AI Act is in jeopardy. The EU must resist the pressure and stand its ground. Join our campaign and find out more here.**

CIVIL SOCIETY ON DEFENSE

NGOS BRACE FOR THIRD-COUNTRY FUNDING REGISTRY: Civil society groups are making a last-ditch pitch to sink the Commission’s plans for a registry of third-country interest representatives. Their last, best hope might be discord within the College of Commissioners over whether a European version of a foreign agents registration act will do more harm than good.

Plowing ahead: Despite a pause to conduct an impact assessment, the Commission is on track to adopt the Defence of Democracy package on December 12. One of the main elements of the package will be a “directive on transparency of interest representation activities carried out on behalf of a third country,” a Commission spokesperson confirmed in an email Wednesday. “It is time to bring covert foreign influence and shady funding to light.”

Still mad: The consistent argument from civil society groups is that NGOs with foreign funding — even if it’s from friendly countries — will be stigmatized, while malign actors will find loopholes. Instead, they want to see a broad lobbying database for all interest representatives. Transparency International EU chief Nick Aiossa has been repeating this new talking point this week: “In practical terms, in 2026 … if it goes forward and transposed, I will have to go down to the newly created Belgian foreign agent office and register because I receive foundation funding from New York, but Lukoil lobbyists here and in the 27 member states won’t have to.”

Other arguments: Watchdog groups argue that the Commission’s plans (still not public) could violate EU law and just plain won’t work.

INTERNAL MISGIVINGS: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged more transparency for third-country players in her 2022 State of the EU speech — with Beijing and Moscow as the targets — and it’s seen as a political must-do ahead of the 2024 elections. But NGOs hope the idea will lose steam after citizens vote.

Quiet dissent: “The Commission is not one uniform voice,” said Ken Godfrey, executive director of the European Partnership for Democracy, at an event at the Open Society Foundations offices on Monday, referring to “very high level people who have serious concerns about this” — though they’re not speaking those concerns publicly.

When the EU is the foreign agent: There are some hints at those concerns out in the open, especially among officials who deal with the EU’s foreign policy. Erica Gerretsen, a director for human development and migration within the Commission’s Directorate-General for International Partnerships (DG INTPA), said earlier this month that she’d recently heard fears from recipients of EU funding that if their own governments start monitoring third-party financing, that cashflow could be at risk. “This discussion is a very, very sensitive one,” Gerretsen said at an International IDEA event about the global state of democracy. (EU Influence also appeared on the panel.)

DON’T COUNT ON OUTSIDE HELP: Publicly, the other EU institutions seem to be inclined to back the third-country registry.

Council: Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib, a key agenda-setter during next year’s Belgian presidency, specifically mentioned her eagerness for the Commission’s defense of democracy proposal during her own speech at the International IDEA event, “especially its proposals to better manage foreign influence within our borders.”

Mixed messages from Parliament: Even many of civil society’s traditional allies in the Parliament don’t seem eager to stick their necks out on this issue ahead of the elections. Many left-of-center MEPs bemoaned the delay this summer when the Commission hit pause to conduct the impact assessment.

And with a new resolution on NGO transparency heading toward a December 14 vote in the Budgetary Control Committee, the sector is only likely to face more scrutiny. An opinion from the Foreign Affairs Committee seems to want it both ways, calling in one paragraph for an “assessment of new measures” to avoid “unintended limitations” of registries on civil society; another calls on the Commission to present proposals for more third-country funding transparency.

SAUDI SUCCESS STORY

HOW SAUDI ARABIA WON THE 2030 EXPO RACE: Riyadh will host the World Exhibition in 2030 after a vote in Paris on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia got over 70 percent of votes from country delegates in a ballot organized by the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE), beating Italy and South Korea. But how did Riyadh manage to score such a landslide victory?

Transactional diplomacy: Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud on Tuesday told reporters that the secret of his country’s success was the ability to anticipate “what should be delivered in order to get [voters’] trust.” For many countries, especially in Africa and the Caribbean, that meant promises of investment opportunities or other economic benefits, according to BIE delegates who spoke to my colleagues Giorgio Leali and Paul de Villepin (you can read it here).

…and parties: Riyadh also did better than its competitors in organizing opulent parties in Paris with BIE delegates — featuring sword-wielding dancers and blue lobster. The last Parisian party happened last night at a luxury hotel next to the Paris Opera.

Time to rethink? For several delegates, the Saudi campaign showed that the BIE should rethink its rules, for instance by fixing a cap on campaign spending. Italy, which only got 17 votes out of 165, implicitly accused Saudi Arabia of buying consensus and regretted that EU countries did not align to support Rome’s bid. Giampiero Massolo, president of the committee promoting Rome’s candidacy for Expo 2030, denounced a “mercantile drift” in this type of vote. If this trend continues, one day non-permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council might also be on sale, he added.

Macron also won: French President Emmanuel Macron was the only EU leader to openly endorse Riyadh bid, raising criticism from some EU countries off-the-record and human rights campaigners.

COMMENT DIRE ‘JUMPING THE SHARK’?

QUICK HITS

HOW RABAT BOUGHT INFLUENCE: With the branding of the European Parliament’s corruption scandal as “Qatargate,” it’s easy to overlook another major player — Morocco. Despite allegations by Belgian investigators that the Moroccan state masterminded a multi-year corruption operation aimed at the heart of EU democracy, no European leader has officially condemned Rabat. Elisa Braun and Barbara Moens bring you the inside story of Morocco’s role in the scandal.

DEREGULATION AS A FUNDRAISING JACKPOT: Who needs foreign funding for NGOs when you can raise money through gambling? The Association of Charity Lotteries in Europe (ACLEU) is urging European governments to relax rules on charity lottery fundraising. If all European countries (EU + U.K., Switzerland, Norway) adopted a more flexible regulation, for instance modeled on the Dutch one, the sector could raise up to €10 billion per year, argues a study by Regulus Partners. That’s compared to the approximate €1.5 billion raised now.

CHATTERBOX

TOBACCO OUSTER SETS OFF (SMOKE) ALARM: The European tobacco lobby’s ejection from a Brussels think tank is fueling debate and paranoia across the Brussels influence industry.

Quick refresh: As we wrote a few weeks ago, the European Policy Centre’s board canceled Tobacco Europe’s membership earlier this year. In written communication with Tobacco Europe, the EPC attributed the move to a fresh look by the European Ombudsman into tobacco lobbying, while also noting that the Commission’s DG SANTE “will not engage with the EPC while you are members.”

Fears of ‘tobacconisation’: Think tanks should be “open to ideas, discussion and confrontation,” wrote Daniel Guéguen, a dean of the Brussels influence sector, kicking off a conversation on LinkedIn. Sure, tobacco is a “product that kills,” he wrote, but warned of a “tobacconisation” for other sectors, including fossil fuels, pesticides and junk food, who would be stripped of their voice because they’re seen as bad for society. “This is an insidious and dangerous form of totalitarianism,” Guéguen wrote.

In denial? David Zaruk, a consultant in “risk perception management,” echoed the point, noting that for now, Chevron and ExxonMobil are still EPC members, but questioned whether Commission moves could also lead them to be ejected. “No one in industry is standing up or speaking out.” (EPC declined further comment.)

Fend for yourselves: Sustainability Consult founder Kathryn Sheridan was less sympathetic. “Courage cuts both ways,” she wrote. “Should we bend over backwards to help industries which willingly cause harm?” Sheridan noted that many agencies are refusing to help spin for the fossil fuel industry. “No one is banning those industries from hiring their own lobbyists.”

Speaking of hiring their own: “My father died of emphysema at 63.” That’s the beginning of a LinkedIn post in which Travis Parman eventually shares (after quoting Abraham Lincoln) “I have accepted the position of U.S. chief communications officer for Philip Morris International.”

PARTY HOPPING

POLITICO — WHO’S NEXT? Journalists are a notoriously slovenly bunch, but we got spiffed up for our first-ever black-tie gala to reveal the POLITICO 28 Class of 2024 power ranking.

That’s all it takes: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who’s been declining POLITICO’s interview requests for years, said she finally accepted in light of the black-tie occasion. Did you hear that, Axel Springer number crunchers? EU Influence has no choice but to submit expenses for weekly ballgown purchases. Journalism!

But in all seriousness, Madame President: You were charming and in command on stage, leaving the audience wondering why you don’t do more interviews. Your closed-up style remains baffling.

Breaking bread together, sort of: Don’t miss Playbook’s dishy look at EPP chief Manfred Weber’s consultations with Catalan pro-independence leader Carles Puigdemont.

There were other strange juxtapositions. For example, further signs of Saudi Arabia’s full re-integration into polite Western society after the kidnapping and assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi: Saudi Ambassador Haifa Al-Jedea attending a news outlet’s Brussels gala. (Whoever buys a table gets to invite who they want.) Presumably, she received a warmer reception at the POLITICO 28 gala than she would have done at the other soirée happening Tuesday, the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Awards, which EU Influence is genuinely disappointed to have missed.) On the opposite side of the dining room at the Africa Palace was Israeli Ambassador Haim Regev.

Weber’s pro tip: During his on-stage interview, Weber said he goes back to “my village in Bavaria” every weekend, and that’s how he learns about how Brussels is perceived by regular people. That prompted one smart lobbyist in the audience to text EU Influence: “So, did MW just tell people like me to find that village in Bavaria and just opinion-bomb the locals he listens to so very assiduously.”

Looking around: POLITICO Editor-in-Chief Jamil Anderlini kicked off the evening by recalling that he’d been schmoozing with MEP Eva Kaili at last year’s POLITICO 28 gala just days before she was arrested for her alleged role in the Qatargate scandal. Even before Anderlini said it, the murmurs could be heard around the room: Who’s next?

INFLUENCERS

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

— Leonardo Zannier has been promoted to team leader, inter-institutional relations at the European Commission’s DG ENER.

— Dana Spinant is the new director-general of the Commission’s Directorate-General for Communication, replacing Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen.

CLIMATE

— Tony Agotha is now a special envoy for climate and environment with the European External Action Service, after serving in former Commission EVP Frans Timmermans’ cabinet.

— Pierre Cannet has joined ClientEarth in the newly created role of global head of public affairs and policy. He previously worked at WWF France.

CIVIL SOCIETY

— Salvatore Nocerino is joining Oxfam EU as the new OECD target manager and aid policy lead. He was previously with CONCORD.

— Chiara Putaturo and Jade Tenwick have been promoted to deputy heads at the Oxfam EU office.

CONSULTING & COMMS

— Martin Pluijm has joined the European Institute of Public Administration (EIPA) as a program director, after having worked at the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

INDUSTRY

— The board of the European Steel Association (EUROFER) elected Tata Steel’s Henrik Adam as its new president. He takes over from Francesc Rubiralta Rubió of CELSA Group.

OVERSIGHT

— Aidan O’Sullivan, who until recently was the longtime head of cabinet to European Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly, will take up a permanent director role with the new Irish Media Commission, Coimisiún na Meán, which will regulate television, radio and online media.

SUSTAINABILITY

— Justine Renard, formerly of FiscalNote, joined Dentons Global Advisors as an associate in sustainability and chemicals

THINK TANKS

— Reinhold Brender has joined Belgium’s Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations. Brender was previously the head of division at the EEAS in charge of Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands States.

RIP: French Green MEP Michèle Rivasi died Wednesday at the age of 70, according to her office. She was known for courting controversy on vaccines and pushing for transparency. Read more from Carlo Martuscelli.

THANKS TO: Giorgio Leali, Suzanne Lynch, Jakob Hanke Vela, Claudia Chiappa, Louise Guillot, Paul de Villepin and especially Ketrin Jochecová; web producer Lola Boom and my editor Paul Dallison.

**A message from Control AI: The EU AI Act is in jeopardy. Big Tech has lobbied France and Germany to gut the Act — removing foundation models (the most powerful and dangerous form of AI) from any regulation. Big Tech argues that regulation should be pushed onto smaller companies that deploy these models, rather than large companies that develop them. This would be like passing a Climate Act that excludes Big Oil; applying only to cars, but not to oil drilling, extraction, refining or distribution. Instead, France and Germany want to replace proper regulation with: ‘mandatory self-regulation’. This would mean AI companies will not only get to mark their own homework but create the mark-scheme too. They will play by their own rules, able to build dangerous systems with no oversight, while pushing liability onto smaller, downstream companies. The EU must resist the pressure and stand its ground. Join our campaign and find out more here.**