Firing the slow-motion starting gun

Опубликовано: Friday, 05 January 2024 06:18

What’s driving the day in London.

By ELENI COUREA

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Good Friday morning. This is Eleni Courea. It’s my last Playbook before I move on to pastures new — thank you for reading over these past two eventful years. Rosa Prince and Dan Bloom will carry on bringing you the morning newsletter.

DRIVING THE DAY

THE SLOWEST STARTING GUN: Westminster is bracing for a grueling 10-month-long campaign after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his “working assumption” was an election in the second half of the year — an intervention designed to calm speculation about a snap poll this spring.

The problem is: The PM didn’t really rule out a spring election — and senior Labour strategists tell Playbook they still think that’s when it will take place. One senior party official bet £100 last night that the GE will happen between April and June.

On we go: Labour leader Keir Starmer is taking questions from callers on his regular LBC half-hour phone-in at 9 a.m. — there may be more punchy language urging Sunak to go to the country.

As for the PM: Sunak is heading out to the North West to meet voters and highlight the 2p cut to National Insurance, which comes into effect Saturday. He’ll record a clip and hold a press huddle with regional journalists late morning. Last night he was addressing activists in Buxton (h/t Edwina Currie).

How we got here: Over Christmas, pressure mounted on Sunak to say more about the timing of the election — the question which has obsessed SW1 for months. The New Statesman and Guardian reported that shadow Cabinet ministers had been asked to finalize manifesto policy by February 8 … confirmation of the March 6 budget date fueled speculation that May would be the date … and all the while top Labour politicians including Starmer, Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting and Bridget Phillipson have led a drumbeat of calls for a GE.

As has been widely pointed out: By playing up a spring election, Labour can accuse Sunak of running scared if he does wait until after the summer. Which is partly why ConHome’s Paul Goodman urged Sunak this week to set a specific November date for the election now. (He hasn’t.)

Notably: Isaac Levido, who is said to be in favor of waiting until the end of the year, went into CCHQ full time this week to run the Tory election campaign. The Times runs through five reasons why Tory strategists are pinning their hopes on a later date.

On this theme: The i’s Ellie Langford has crunched Tory spending on social media ads in December.

For now: MPs are packing their suitcases before parliament whooshes back to life on Monday. It’s looking like a quiet first weekend of 2024 — enjoy it, we’ve got a long year ahead.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Back soon.

NEW YEAR NEW KEIR: Rishi Sunak’s intervention has knocked Keir Starmer off the top of many newslists — but today’s papers still dedicate plenty of space to unpacking his speech. The Times runs through the top lines here and in an analysis piece, Chris Smyth and Matt Dathan pose 10 questions to Labour about its policy plans.

Not impressed: Seizing a quote from the speech, the Sun’s Harry Cole dubs Starmer “Frank Hope” and argues he’s just making sweeping promises rather than setting out the specifics of what he would do in government. The Mail dubs him a “weathervane.”

Elusive oldies: The Economist’s poll tracker suggests the Tories are still ahead with older voters — 40 percent of those aged 65 and over say they will vote Conservative.

LIB DEM WORLD: In his Times column Patrick Maguire writes about the dissatisfaction among some Liberal Democrats about Ed Davey’s strategy. He reports that private polling commissioned by the party last month suggests they could win more than 30 seats in a general election.

THE LONGEST STRIKE: Doctors are being warned that NHS England will start formally collecting evidence of harm caused to patients by strike action — the story makes the Telegraph’s front page. The Times splashes on Health Secretary Victoria Atkins’ warnings over the strikes.

TRADING WITH TURKEY: Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch heads to Istanbul today ahead of trade talks to try to negotiate closer economic links. The Express writes up the news trail.

BOATS BUNGLE: The U.K. is not coordinating sufficiently with France to reduce the number of people crossing the Channel in small boats, according to French state auditors — the Guardian has a write-up.

CRASH-STRAPPED: The FT’s Laura Hughes and Amy Borrett have looked into how a lack of funding is preventing nurseries from expanding free provision to younger children.

ZERO POINTS: Former PM Theresa May is frustrated by Rishi Sunak’s net zero policy, according to Rachel Solomon Williams, executive director of business group Aldersgate — which May is on the board of. “She would like to see more clarity of direction at the moment, I think it’s fair to say,” Williams told my colleague Abby Wallace. “She understands the impact on business and on investment of not really being clear in messaging … I think she finds that frustrating.”

PATEL ON THE POST OFFICE: Former Home Secretary Priti Patel, whose father was a sub-postmaster, has written for the Sun calling for Post Office bosses to be punished for the Horizon scandal.

**POLITICO’s Global Playbook is taking you to Davos. Forgot your ticket to the Swiss Alps? Not to worry — our global newsletter will take you behind the scenes of the World Economic Forum, so you can understand every detail of the multifaceted discussions on tomorrow’s economy — from Tech and AI, all the way to finance and health care. Read here.**

BEYOND THE M25

IN IRELAND: My colleague Shawn Pogatchnik has written a thoughtful and engrossing piece on how voters’ concerns about immigration are causing problems for frontrunner Sinn Féin, which is hoping to secure a historic first-time win in the next election in Ireland.

IN IRAN: Islamic State claimed responsibility for Wednesday’s blasts in Iran which Tehran said killed at least 84 people and wounded 220 — via Bloomberg.

UKRAINE UPDATE: Russia recently used North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine and is seeking Iranian missiles, according to White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby — my Stateside colleagues have more.

On that topic: The government should “put its money where its mouth is” and urgently commit to more military funding for Ukraine, former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Times Radio, with funding due to run out in March — the Times has more. Wallace is on LBC at 8.20 a.m.

ISRAEL-GAZA LATEST: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he is seeking a “fundamental change” on Israel’s border with Lebanon, though did not specify his plans — the Guardian has more. Gaza refugees were meanwhile bombed in the so-called safe zone of al-Mawasi in southern Gaza — via the Times.

What comes next: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s office last night in a statement outlined Israel’s “new combat approach” for the war in Gaza, involving more targeted action in Gaza’s north, while continuing to pursue Hamas leaders (and attempt to free hostages) in the south, Reuters reports.

After the war, which Gallant’s office said “will continue for as long as is deemed necessary” for Israeli security, there will be no Israeli civilian presence in Gaza, and Palestinian bodies would be in charge of the enclave, though not Hamas. “Gaza residents are Palestinian, therefore Palestinian bodies will be in charge, with the condition that there will be no hostile actions or threats against the State of Israel,” the statement said.

DEPARTING THE RED SEA: The standoff between Iran-backed Houthis and the West in the Red Sea is taking a toll on the world economy. POLITICO’s crack team of experts have the details of the cost of the crisis.

ROLLING IN IT: China and Saudi Arabia were among 20 foreign governments that spent at least $7.8 million in total at Donald Trump’s hotels while he was U.S. president, a report by congressional Democrats found — the story makes the FT’s front page.

INSIDE TAIWAN: Taiwan’s election next week is the backdrop for an on-the-ground investigation about its readiness for a potential invasion by China — the Independent’s Kim Sengupta has the details.

FOR SOME LIGHT RELIEF: Which politicians have had the wildest, most scandalous parties of the past few years? Read POLITICO’s round-up here.

MEDIA ROUND

Shadow Paymaster General Jonathan Ashworth broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (6.35 a.m.) … Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … GB News (7.35 a.m.) … TalkTV (7.50 a.m.) … GMB (8.10 a.m.) … LBC News (8.25 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Breakfast: BMA Junior Doctors Committee Co-Chair Vivek Trivedi (8.30 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Lib Dem London Mayoral candidate Rob Blackie (8.10 a.m.).

Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former London Ambulance Service Chief Executive Garrett Emmerson (7.40 a.m.) … Tory peer Daniel Finkelstein (8.05 a.m.) … former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace (8.20 a.m.) … former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg (8.50 a.m.) … Labour leader Keir Starmer phone-in (9 a.m. until 9.30 a.m.).

**Vom Bundestag bis zu den Bundesländern – Berlin Playbook hat Ihre Politikberichterstattung im Griff. We’re coming to Germany – and bringing our award-winning journalism with us. Keen to get your daily dose of deutsche Politik before your morning coffee? Sign up here.**

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Sinn Féin walks immigration tightrope toward power in Ireland.

Daily Express: Rishi’s tax cut pledge kicks off election battle.

Daily Mail: No way back.

Daily Mirror: Cops must probe Andrew sex claims.

Daily Star: Operation oompa loompa.

Financial Times: Sunak signals election will be held in second half of this year.

i: No tax cuts for two years under Labour, hints Starmer.

Metro: Andrew in “orgy on Epstein island.”

The Daily Telegraph: Navy has so few sailors ships must be scrapped.

The Guardian: Labour will fight fire with fire, Starmer warns Tories.

The Independent: Britain braces for long and dirty election battle.

The Sun: Time to give Andrew the chop.

The Times: Doctors told — NHS belongs to all of us, not just you.

TODAY’S NEWS MAGS

The Economist: Made in ’42. Roadworthy in ’24?

THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY

EU Confidential: The team predicts how the 2024 mega election year in Europe, the U.K., the U.S. and beyond could impact pressing issues around the European Union.

Power Play: POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy looks back on highlights from the podcast’s interviews in 2023 to set the scene for the big geopolitical stories dominating 2024.

Plus 6 of the other best political podcasts to listen to this weekend:

Iain Dale All Talk: Dale hears from the Guardian’s parliamentary sketch writer John Crace about the state of politics, the art of satire and his struggles with addiction.

Inside Briefing: The Institute for Government is joined by Sky’s Sam Coates to talk about the forthcoming general election, local elections and the COVID inquiry.

Inside The Room: Ed Balls and George Osborne continue their conversation with former Lib Dem Cabinet Minister Danny Alexander about the 2010 coalition negotiations.

Leading: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart discuss the world of politics and sport with former Tory MP and peer Seb Coe.

The Rachman Review: Gideon Rachman talks about Europe’s future ahead of the EU elections with Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.

The Rundown: Alain Tolhurst and Adam Payne speak to LBC’s Natasha Clark and the Independent’s Zoë Grünewald about the political year ahead.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Light cloud and 8C highs.

THROWING SHADE: The HMRC press office account on X (h/t Christian Calgie).

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY: Today Nick Ferrari celebrates 20 years as the presenter of his LBC Breakfast show. Between 7 and 10 a.m. he’ll be joined by a succession of special guests including former Deputy PM Nick Clegg, the first politician to launch a regular phone-in 2013 — LBC’s “Call Clegg.” Rishi Sunak has recorded a special message to congratulate Ferrari and everyone involved in making the show for an “extraordinary innings.”

Tune in over the weekend: Sunak will be on the BBC Laura Kuenssberg show on Sunday — his first big interview of 2024.

SEEKING SELECTION: Keir Starmer’s former head of domestic policy Liv Bailey has applied to become Labour’s candidate in Reading West and Mid Berkshire.

NOAH’S CULTURE FIX: The House of Bernarda Alba starring Harriet Walter closes at the Lyttelton Theatre on Saturday at 7.30 p.m. — a 21-minute walk from Westminster.

On the radio: Crossbench peer Louise Casey’s Radio 4 series on fixing Britain concludes today with an episode about community cohesion at 9 a.m. … and Reform U.K. Leader Richard Tice is the subject of Radio 4’s Profile broadcast on Saturday at 7 p.m. and repeated over the weekend.

Friday film club: Oscar winning 2020 drama Nomadland is on Channel 4 this Saturday at 10 p.m. … and fellow Oscar winning 2019 drama Sound of Metal is on BBC Two on Sunday at 10.30 p.m.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.

WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Rosa Prince.

NOW READ: Labour strategist Alex Hesz has written his first of a series of regular columns for Progressive Britain about how his party can communicate its vision and values better.

BIRTHDAYS: Shipley MP Philip Davies … Solihull MP Julian Knight … North West Norfolk MP James Wild … Dunfermline and West Fife MP Douglas Chapman … Labour peer and former Attorney General Peter Goldsmith … Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson … German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier … Observer Chief Political Commentator Andrew Rawnsley … Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham … British Airways Head of Media Relations Shaun Jepson.

Celebrating over the weekend: Deputy Tory Chairman Lee Anderson … Shadow Crime Reduction Minister Feryal Clark … Wansbeck MP Ian Lavery … Tory peer Ian McColl … Scottish Government Head of Policy Callum McCaig … Lib Dem aide Toby Davis… BBC Political Correspondent Iain Watson … former Have I Got News For You host Angus Deayton … former Leader of the London Assembly Brexit Alliance Peter Whittle … BBC Correspondent Fergal Keane … Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby … Meta spinner Nick Clegg … Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham … Shadow Leader of the House of Lords Angela Smith … Department for Education SpAd Lawrence Abel … Feature writer Miranda Sawyer.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Noah Keate and producer Seb Starcevic.