Xavier Bettel’s last stand

Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel’s political fate hangs in the balance as voters head to the ballot box on Sunday.

After a decade in charge, polls suggest Bettel’s time could be up, as the Christian Social People’s Party (CSV) is currently in the lead. That could pave the way for CSV lead candidate Luc Frieden to become prime minister, a well-known face in Brussels as a former finance minister and ex-president of industry and services lobby Eurochambres.

Wait a second, though: Luxembourgish politics are never that simple.

In the two previous elections, the center-right CSV was also the biggest party, but struggled to find partners to reach the 31 parliamentary seats required to form a government. So after polls close, the real power struggle will kick off as a hunt begins for coalition partners to lead the Grand Duchy.

For an indication of who might prevail in coalition talks, watch which smaller parties rise highest, said Philippe Poirier, a political science professor at the University of Luxembourg.

Luxembourg for years seemed like the modern-day, real-life Asterix village, a Western European bastion resistant to creeping far-right forces. But recently, a number of more populist parties, such as the right-wing Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR) and the Pirates have found their way toward the Krautmaart, where Luxembourg’s Chamber of Deputies is located.

“There is increasing polarization,” said Poirier. “These parties are not really extremist, either on the right or the left, but they do criticize the functioning of the system.”

Gains for those populist parties could easily kill the current coalition between Bettel’s liberals, the socialists and the greens. It will also influence whether the new government will need to be comprised of two or three parties.

That leaves a number of options open between the “big four” centrist parties: Bettel’s liberal Democratic Party (DP); the center-right CSV; the center-left Luxembourg Socialist Workers’ Party (LSAP); and the Greens.

Luxembourgish MEP Christophe Hansen, from the CSV — the party of former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker — argues that the biggest party coming out of the election should have the first chance to build a coalition. Which coalition that is, either with the liberals or with the socialists, will depend on the number of seats won.

“We have a clear preference to have a coalition just with one partner,” said Hansen. “It is way easier to find constructive compromises that really move things ahead. The current coalition of three parties are pulling in opposite directions on crucial points.”

The governing coalition could also continue in power if they can hold on to their current seats, but the dynamics could switch. The socialists are currently polling above Bettel’s liberals, which may open the door to a socialist prime minister.

Confused? Don’t worry about it. “There are a lot of different scenarios possible,” Poirier said.

European implications

Unlike in last weekend’s Slovak election, Luxembourg’s position on the EU or Ukraine is unlikely to change even if the current coalition gets upended.

But it will affect who Luxembourg will send to Brussels after the European election in June next year. The current coalition negotiations are set to include a decision on the next European commissioner, three Luxembourgish officials said, who were granted anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly.

If the socialists are kicked out of government, Nicolas Schmit, the current European commissioner for jobs and social rights, is unlikely to stay in Brussels for the next mandate. Despite turning 70 later this year, Schmit did not rule out a second term in a recent interview with local media RTL, saying “he never had a real plan in his life.”

But the Christian Democrats also have capable candidates, Hansen said, and Bettel himself is also rumored among EU diplomats and officials to become either the next Luxembourgish commissioner or look for another top European job if he loses power.

Despite the complicated puzzle, unlike its Benelux neighbors Luxembourg does not have a tradition of long coalition talks. By the time European heads of state and government meet in Brussels in mid-December, it should be clear if Bettel will still be at the European Council table or not.

In that case, his lively interventions will definitely be missed, said diplomats who have been following leaders’ meetings closely. One example came when Bettel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte openly clashed with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán over LGBTQ+ rights. At the time, Bettel had to explain to Orbán that “I did not become gay. I am, it is not a choice.”

But those interventions have also been met with eye-rolling from the opposition. “He is a good showman and definitely a very articulate speaker,” said Hansen. “But I’m not sure if the impact on substance has been that high as it has been previously for Juncker.”

Vincent Manancourt contributed reporting.