The NATO summit’s unlikely winner

GÜNAYDIN TO GLOBAL SECURITY. We’re coming to you from day two of the NATO summit in Ankara, where we’re examining how Turkey stole the show, Germany’s plan to offset the departure of U.S. troops, and the NATO chief’s new talking points.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump upon his arrival at Etimesgut Air Base near Ankara, on July 7, 2026, before attending the 36th NATO Heads of State and Government Summit. | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

The NATO leaders’ summit is set to wrap up with one clear winner. And it isn’t a united alliance.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an increasingly authoritarian leader and mercurial ally, has managed to come out looking like an effective negotiator and leader in homegrown defense.

Summit leaders are tiptoeing around the Turkish leader’s human rights practices and praising his ability to draw President Donald Trump into the discussion about NATO’s future. They’re lauding the weapons deals that are helping supply drones and missiles to alliance members. And the U.S. leader, despite bilateral tensions between the two countries in his first term, is showering his counterpart with praise and suggestions that he might lift a ban on the sale of F-35 fighter jets.

“I have no concerns about anything having to do with Turkey,” Trump said in a press conference with Erdoğan. “I would say the relationship with Turkey right now is better, probably than it’s ever been. It was good in my first four years, but I think now it’s probably even better than that, if that’s possible.”

Controlling the narrative: Erdoğan — who managed to survive a coup attempt during Trump’s first term — also faced sanctions, frustration and isolation. But the president, who has always had a good relationship with the Turkish leader, seems to have forgiven previous U.S. grievances.

Trump, who was impressed by a newly renovated VIP facility in Ankara’s airbase, stressed that if it weren’t for Erdoğan, he might not have come.

“I felt I had to attend because of the fact that he’s gone all out,” he said. “It’s a big thing to have NATO come to Turkey.”

The big caveat: NATO allies on Tuesday unveiled about $54 billion in new defense investments, in an unusual show of equipment pledges. Some alliance diplomats argue Turkey, as host country, is merely using the flurry of seemingly lucrative deals as a distraction from few real successes.

“Politically, the messaging will not be transformational,” said Giedrimas Jeglinskas, a former NATO official and Lithuanian parliamentarian. “Multi-billion dollar industry deals are happening, and Erdoğan will use this as Turkish industry’s coming out party. Yet it’s hard to envision that, for example, the EU’s market will open up for Turkish firms.”

Jet setting: But Turkey may soon have a concrete win.

Trump on Tuesday emphasized his desire to back a controversial sale of F-35 fighter jets, which U.S. lawmakers warn would hand Russia knowledge of American systems. U.S. law bars the sale of F-35s to Turkey as long as they have or operate the S-400 long-range missiles, which American officials believe could passively scan the fighter jets and erode their stealth capabilities.

But Trump appears ready to set aside those concerns. He is expected to support the potential sale during meetings in Ankara, according to a person familiar with the matter, granted anonymity to talk about sensitive policy deliberations.

“Some people, including some sitting in the room, don’t see why the U.S. wouldn’t sell it,” Trump said. “It’s certainly something we will consider.”

Turkey had been responsible for designing parts of the fuselage and landing gear for the aircraft, and in recent weeks, Trump’s team has been seeking a workaround for Ankara. One option gaining favor is sending the S-400 to a third country, the person said, though Russia would likely have to sign off on any moves.

Surprising support: Trump may have some unlikely support. Some U.S. Democrats who have criticized Erdoğan’s use of anti-terror laws to silence opponents and squash protests are expressing broad interest.

“We’re open to that discussion,” over F-35s for Turkey, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said in an interview in Ankara.

He noted concerns with Turkey’s refusal to give up its Russian-made S-400 air defense system, the motivation for Trump to remove Ankara from the F-35 program during his first term. But, he said, “Turkey has shown a commitment to NATO.”

That doesn’t mean all is well.

While Turkey has kept the EU on its good side for the summit, it “may all be a facade,” said Giuseppe Spatafora, a former NATO official. “The issues in the background remain.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte unveiled a new talking point in an interview with POLITICO on Tuesday that other European leaders are starting to emulate: equal defense spending across the Atlantic.

Rutte credited Trump with making a historic push to create a level playing field between American and European defense spending that will ultimately salvage the alliance.

“President Trump [is] basically achieving what, since Eisenhower, American presidents tried to achieve, which is to equalize the defense spending between the U.S. and Europe,” Rutte said on “The Conversation with Dasha Burns” podcast. “You have to build a NATO which is sustainable and therefore is not over reliant on the U.S.”

Which reality: Critics contend the opposite has occurred, with a U.S. president who has reshaped the group into a transactional business rather than one built on democratic values.

Trump has threatened to seize Greenland; berated Ukraine for not accepting a Russia-friendly ceasefire; and warned he would leave the alliance if countries didn’t prioritize defense over social services.

What he said: But other leaders are appearing to follow Rutte’s cue.

“We are not undertaking this massive effort to do anyone a favor,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters. “We are undertaking this massive effort because it is necessary for our defense and our security.”

A big fan: Rutte also doubled down on his full-throated endorsement of Trump’s foreign policy, backing the U.S. president’s pressure on NATO allies to raise defense spending and launch a war on Iran.

“I just like the man,” Rutte said on the podcast. “What he is doing for NATO is great news.”

European NATO members have agreed to fill most of the gaps expected to come from the departures of U.S. troops and military equipment from Europe.

The details: Germany plans to provide two modern F125-class frigates, Eurofighters, two maritime patrol aircraft and several Heron TP drones, according to two senior NATO officials who spoke with WELT, a sister publication of POLITICO. France will provide an aircraft carrier to replace a departing U.S. warship, and Italy and Germany are offering escort vessels.

WELT reported in June that the U.S. plans to cut tanker aircraft provided to Europe from 71 to 63, and F-16 and F-15 fighter jets from 154 to 99. The U.S. also plans to remove all long-range reconnaissance drones from NATO planning, according to the report, reducing the number of armed MQ-9 drones by almost half, and withdrawing one of two bombers based on the continent.

Hard talks: All of these changes come as NATO countries hold intensive consultations about what contributions they will make to the alliance under the “NATO Force Model, ” which determines the number of troops and assets that member nations can contribute to the front lines.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took to the NATO Industry Forum in Ankara on Tuesday to make Kyiv’s case for joining the alliance, focusing especially on its advances with long-range drones.

“I have a question for you: Do you really believe it would be right to leave outside NATO a country and a people with this level of defensive capability?” Zelenskyy asked attendees.