Legal veto threatens Macron’s pension reform. Is that good news for him?

Опубликовано: Friday, 14 April 2023 05:12

A much-anticipated ruling by France’s constitutional court could give the government a way out.

PARIS — French constitutional judges are expected to rule Friday on Emmanuel Macron’s contentious pensions reform in a much anticipated decision that could see parts of the text blocked on legal grounds.

That could actually be good news for the French president.

Macron’s decision to bypass parliament and impose his deeply unpopular pensions reform last month has left his government in a political dead end after months of prolonged crisis, with a gridlock parliament and continued protests against the plan to raise the retirement age from to 64 from 62 and increase the number of years of contributions required to receive a full pension.

France’s Constitutional Council is set to decide whether the proposed pensions overhaul is in line with the constitution, especially when it comes to the adoption procedure, and to weigh in on a request by opposition lawmakers to hold a referendum on the bill.

While the final ruling cannot be predicted, several constitutional lawyers agree that a partial rejection of the reform is the most likely scenario — an outcome that could paradoxically give the government a way out, according to two Macron’s party and government officials who were not authorized to speak publicly.

“It’s not in our interest that the government is a triumphalist winner,” said one of Macron’s party heavyweights, hinting at the fact that a partial rejection could calm down tensions and pave the way for a new dialogue between the government and unions on less controversial aspects of the reform.

The Constitutional Council could reject on procedural grounds some less controversial provisions, such as the ones to increase the employability of senior workers, while green-lighting the reform’s flagship measure: the rise of the legal retirement age.

That would suit the government, which has could re-introduce rejected measures in another piece of legislation later this year. These measures, referred to as the plan’s “sweetener” by a minister, are less likely to face parliamentary opposition.

That scenario would leave the substance of the reform unchanged while giving Macron an opening to extend an olive branch to unions.

Macron has already promised to meet with trade unions after the ruling to discuss “the way forward,” but the dialogue between the government and unions has so far been tense, with union representatives describing a meeting with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne earlier this month as “a failure.”

He is also expected to give another televised next week, three government advisers told Playbook Paris.

The French president repeatedly insisted on the need to move forward with the reform in order to focus on other key files for the rest of his term.

Friday’s ruling will “close a democratic and constitutional path,” Macron said at a press conference in Amsterdam on Wednesday, acknowledging that the future “will still bear the marks of the disagreements of this phase.”

A new day of strikes and protests hit the country on Thursday, but the turnover has been declining compared to previous protests as unions are considering their next move after the much-awaited ruling, showing some divergence on the way to go.

As she blocked an incinerator close to Paris, the head of left-wing union GCT Sophie Binet insisted that protests would continue unless the government withdraws the text but, earlier this week, the head of more moderated CFDT union Laurent Berger told LCI channel that strikes could not drag on for the next six months, and that the confederation of major unions have not yet decided on new strikes.

Pressure on the nine constitutional judges — which include two former prime ministers — is high: Police will provide extra protection around the Palais Royal, the Constitutional Council’s headquarter in Paris, as some protests already popped up on Thursday with trash bins blocking the street in front of the building.

Legal veto threatens Macron’s pension reform. Is that good news for him?

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