Israel-Hamas war threatens to spill over

Presented by Renew Europe

By NICHOLAS VINOCUR

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

PRESENTED BY

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GREETINGS, this is Nick Vinocur bringing you Playbook from Paris, where the Eiffel Tower went on strike for my birthday and a ban on selling diseased oysters from a key region is testing resilience ahead of New Year’s Eve celebrations.

Paris is as beautiful as ever despite hellish traffic ahead of the Olympic Games. But worry not, because the French government has a plan to avoid mayhem once the festivities begin in July: telling Parisians to stay home or go on holiday to avoid overburdening the public transport system. That should do it. Enough banter — let’s go.

MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

ISRAEL WARNS OF LEBANON ESCALATION: As Israeli forces continue to pound the Gaza Strip, war Cabinet member Benny Gantz has warned that the time for a diplomatic solution to Israel’s second front — on its northern border with Lebanon — is running out, raising the specter of the conflict widening.

What he said: “The situation on Israel’s northern border demands change,” Gantz, who joined a provisional unity government led by PM Benjamin Netanyahu shortly after Hamas’ October 7 attacks, told reporters. “The stopwatch for a diplomatic solution is running out. If the world and the Lebanese government don’t act in order to prevent the firing on Israel’s northern residents … the [Israeli military] will do it.”

**A message from Renew Europe: Renew Europe’s Global Europe Forum, entitled "Global Europe in the Face of Multiple International Crises," hosted by Stéphane Séjourné, President of Renew Europe, will take place in the Hemicycle of the European Parliament on Tuesday, 9th January 2024, from 15:00 to 18:30. Register here!**

What’s going on: Fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border is intensifying, with Iran-backed Hezbollah on Wednesday launching its highest number of cross-border rocket attacks since October 7. Israel’s military, in response, has stepped up reprisals, including artillery and airstrikes. Israeli troops are in “high readiness” for more fighting in the area, said the head of the Israel Defense Forces, Herzi Halevi. “We need to be prepared to strike if required.”

Why it matters: Despite concerted efforts by Western and regional powers to keep the Israel-Hamas war contained to the Gaza Strip, the threat of a wider regional conflict is growing by the day.

Escalation: Drone and missile attacks launched by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have prompted the United States to try to assemble a coalition of countries to secure safe passage for commercial vessels in the Red Sea, a key trade passage. Taken together with the fighting on Israel’s border with Lebanon, the situation has the makings of a broader fight between Israel, backed by some Western powers, and Iran’s proxy forces across the region.

EU angle: For Europe, the risk isn’t just disruptions to trade — it’s being drawn in, even indirectly, to a conflict that’s increasingly unpopular with EU voters.

Count me out: Indeed, while the EU condemned the Houthi attacks in statements issued on December 13 and December 19, several European countries have rushed to say they won’t be taking part in a U.S.-led Red Sea mission. Rome plans to send a ship — but under Italian command, to protect Italian ships. France has said it supports the operation, but will control its own ships. Spain has said it wants nothing to do with a mission under U.S. command. The subtext is growing criticism of the toll of Israel’s war in Gaza, following reports of further deadly strikes by its forces in central Gaza.

Blinken to the Middle East: Against this enthusiastic backdrop, the New York Times and Axios report U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is planning yet another trip to the Middle East — his fourth since the Gaza war started — to try to deescalate the conflict.

Bottom line: The war is increasingly driving a wedge between Western powers, as EU leaders grapple with increasingly hostile public opinion toward Israel over the growing death toll, just as Iran’s proxies are upping the ante.

NOW READ THIS: None of the key contenders to replace Netanyahu are embracing a two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, reports Jamie Dettmer. “There’s no appetite in Israel for a revival of two-state talks, as no one can envision how it would bring peace in the wake of the brutal Hamas attacks.”

HOW TO FUND UKRAINE

FRENCH CALL FOR €100B UKRAINE DEFENSE FUND: A former French ambassador, Michel Duclos, penned an op-ed in Le Monde urging the EU to raise €100 billion for a Ukraine defense fund, following the same model it used to support economies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Springtime for EU armaments: Duclos writes that the funds would be used to jump-start the European defense industry so it can durably help Ukraine at a time when U.S. aid is falling off a cliff (the latest award was just $250 million) and the prospect of Donald Trump’s reelection as U.S. president threatens a more permanent turn away from Kyiv.

Trial balloon: The call from Duclos, a former ambassador to Syria and special adviser to the influential Institut Montaigne think tank, follows a similar appeal in November from French lawmaker Benjamin Haddad and ex-Europe Minister Nathalie Loiseau. It’s not quite a government proposal. But Haddad and Loiseau are about as close to French President Emmanuel Macron as it gets, hinting at cautious interest in Paris for the Ukraine fund as a trial balloon.

Cue groans: Other EU countries might be quick to argue that France, with its considerable defense industry, would be the first to benefit from such a fund.

Hunt for Plan B: But with U.S. aid for Ukraine fading away and the EU coming up against a Hungarian veto, Europe is looking for creative ways to keep funds flowing to Kyiv. (ICYMI, the FT reported on one idea earlier this week.)

Meanwhile, the US is floating a plan to seize more than €300 billion in frozen Russian assets and actively discussing the idea with members of the G7, the New York Times reported earlier this month. It’s unclear whether the funds would be used for military aid, reconstruction in Ukraine, or both.

Not pleased: Reacting to the reports, a spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned of tit-for-tat reprisals if the G7 goes ahead with the asset seizures.

Reminder: The EU hasn’t exactly been the biggest fan of seizing Russian assets. Under U.S. pressure, Brussels in October proposed using the profits from Russian assets frozen in Europe to help Ukraine, but that plan has been quietly shelved amid warnings it could “harm confidence” in the euro currency.

Funding crunch: With Ukraine approaching a budget cliff-edge in March, time is running out for the EU to come up with some way to keep Kyiv afloat. Ideas abound ahead of an EU Council gathering slated for February. But the willingness to dig deep is fading ahead of June’s European Parliament election, which could see a surge in support for far-right parties opposed to helping Ukraine — to Putin’s satisfaction.

MEANWHILE, ZELENSKYY TALKS PEACE WITH POPE: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address that he’d spoken with Pope Francis to discuss Ukraine’s peace formula. Zelenskyy was referring to the plan Kyiv has been circulating for months, which calls among other things for Russia to withdraw all its troops from Ukraine. But the fact the president is emphasizing peace is noteworthy given the mood music from Ukraine’s financial backers.

US IN FOCUS

TRUMP’S MAINE EVENT: Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows overnight declared Donald Trump ineligible to serve as president because of his involvement in the January 6, 2021 insurrection. Trump will almost certainly appeal the decision, which is on pause pending an appeal to the state judiciary. Full details from my Stateside colleagues.

SWATTING TREND: At least three Republican members of Congress have said they were the target of swatting in recent days — incidents in which false calls are placed to emergency services to trigger massive police responses. More here.

BIDEN EXTENDS STEEL PEACE DEAL: Meanwhile, President Joe Biden on Thursday formally announced he’s extending the U.S. side of a steel and aluminum trade peace deal with the EU for two years, after the two sides failed to negotiate a permanent resolution. Details here from our U.S. colleague Doug Palmer (for POLITICO Competition and Industrial Policy, Sustainability and Trade Pros).

**POLITICO’s Global Playbook is taking you to Davos. Forgot your ticket to the Swiss Alps? Not to worry — our global newsletter will take you behind the scenes of the World Economic Forum, so you can understand every detail of the multifaceted discussions on tomorrow’s economy — from Tech and AI, all the way to finance and health care. Read here.**

TOP READS

BELGIUM’S MAKE-OR-BREAK ELECTION: As Belgium gears up for its six-month stint at the helm of the Council of the European Union from January 1, the country’s political attention is already fixed on another date: June 9, Belgium’s next election. The far-right Vlaams Belang party — which wants to turn Flanders into a breakaway state — has long been ahead, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

The specter of a far-right surge, especially after Geert Wilders’ showing in the neighboring Netherlands, is piling on the political pressure, report Barbara Moens, Camille Gijs and Pieter Haeck. Conversations with dozens of Belgian diplomats, aides and politicians have painted a picture of the election as the elephant in the room of the country’s Council presidency.

THE YEAR IN FACTS AND FIGURES: This year has been marked by crises, transition and conflict. From the toll of bloody wars to sky-high temperatures, this report in graphs reveals the topics that defined 2023, by Giovanna Coi, Lucia Mackenzie and Hanne Cokelaere.

FRIDAY FUN: The year of the unpleasant return is finally over, writes Paul Dallison in his final Declassified humor column of the year.

**Playbook kommt nach Berlin! POLITICO is bringing our award-winning policy journalism to the arena of German politics, in German. From the Bundestag and key institutions all the way to each Bundesländer, Berlin Playbook has got you covered for what’s to come in a momentous 2024 for European politics. Hier anmelden.**

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: 11C, light rain.

BRUSSELS BRACES FOR NYE: It’s that magical time again, when boofheads see in the new year by tossing around electric scooters and setting stuff on fire. Seeking to reduce the scale of the annual New Year’s Eve carnage, authorities are banning large objects and glass from the Grand Place, Place des Palais and Parc de Bruxelles (garbage bins in the park have been closed to prevent arson). Also, scooters are being removed from high-risk areas around the city. Details here.

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Marc Botenga and Isabel Wiseler-Lima; Former MEPs Hélène Laporte (now vice president of the French National Assembly) and Catherine Rowett; EPPA’s Thomas Tugler; POLITICO’s Clothilde Goujard; Journalist Dave Keating; Belgian diplomat Rudolf Huygelen; IOC President Thomas Bach.

Celebrating Saturday: MEPs Bartosz Arłukowicz and Alessandra Mussolini; Former MEP Jacqueline Foster (now a member of the U.K.’s House of Lords); Czech Ambassador to the EU Edita Hrdá; ANSYS’ Annabelle Cheney; Kersti Kaljulaid, former president of Estonia; Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; POLITICO’s Ornella Bourgeois.

Celebrating Sunday: MEP Gianna Gancia; Bloomberg’s Jillian Deutsch; European Commission’s Cláudia Köver; Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, king of Saudi Arabia.

THANKS TO: Playbook producer Seb Starcevic.

**A message from Renew Europe: We wish all playbook readers a peaceful, relaxing and happy festive period! Our liberal, democrat and progressive family has driven the work of this European Parliament. We will continue doing so until the very last day of the mandate. 2024 is a crucial year for Europe. We need strategy and clear vision to enhance the EU’s capacity to act as a global actor. That’s why we will be kicking off the year with the Global Europe Forum. It is a unique opportunity to meet Renew Europe’s leaders, Heads of State and government and shape together our centrist and liberal future. Register and join us in person on the 9th of January!**

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