EU hosts summit to counter Belt and Road

Опубликовано: Wednesday, 25 October 2023 13:35

Decoding transatlantic relations with Beijing.

By STUART LAU

with PHELIM KINE

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WELCOME TO CHINA WATCHER. This is Stuart Lau reporting from Brussels, where the EU is planning its own summit to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative. We’ll also take a look at a fresh report on Asia from the British Parliament’s defense committee — which calls on the U.K. government to plan for a Chinese war against Taiwan. Further ahead this week, our U.S. team will be watching whether China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be visiting Washington, in order to prepare for Chinese President Xi Jinping‘s possible trip to San Francisco in mid-November.

EU-CHINA THIS WEEK

GLOBAL GATEWAY FORUM: The EU will on Wednesday and Thursday host 16 leaders from the developing world to mark the first Global Gateway forum, in European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s bid to confront China’s Belt and Road Initiative to build infrastructure across the globe.

Coming Brussels’ way… The heads of state of Armenia, Comoros (also chair of the African Union), Namibia, Mauritania, Senegal and Somalia are scheduled to visit, alongside prime ministers of Albania, Bangladesh, Cape Verde, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Georgia, Moldova, Morocco, Rwanda and Serbia. Kenya and Vietnam will send their deputy PMs, according to a guest list seen by China Watcher on Monday.

On the EU side: The biggest EU countries are not sending the top brass to Brussels for the event. Germany will be represented by climate secretary Jennifer Morgan, while France and Denmark will send their development secretaries. Italy is not represented at all — while British development minister Andrew Mitchell will be present.

Who’s not coming? Brazil, India and South Africa, the countries in the Chinese-Russian group of BRICS, are not going to be present. The event will be held just a week after Beijing rolled out the red carpet for the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Indonesian leader Joko Widodo during the Belt and Road summit.

All the hot topics… Critical raw minerals, green and digital transitions, as well as transport corridors are all going to be featured prominently in the two-day forum, with agreements expected to be signed between the European Commission and the visiting heads of state or government, according to officials.

Corporate reps: Bloomberg reports that companies including Orange, Allianz, Alstom, Danone, Enel, Siemens and Telefónica are invited to attend.

EU TO SIGN ANTI-COERCION INSTRUMENT: Two years after Beijing imposed trade embargoes against Lithuania due to its ties with Taiwan, the EU is going to finally adopt the anti-coercion instrument by the end of the year. According to a statement from the Council of the EU on Monday, the signing of the regulation is expected to take place on November 22, and will enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU.

Deter and counteract: The aim is to use this legislation to de-escalate and induce the discontinuation of coercive measures in trade and investment “through dialogue,” the EU said. “When this is not possible, and as a last resort, the EU will be able to adopt countermeasures such as the imposition of trade restrictions [such as] increased customs duties, import or export licences, restrictions on trade in services or access to foreign direct investment or public procurement.”

What could go wrong? It’s up to the 27 EU countries to determine whether or not economic coercion actually exists. With Beijing’s friends Orbán and now Slovakia’s next leader Robert Fico now in the European Council, it’s “hard to see how the Council can activate” such anti-coercion measures, according to an EU diplomat. “Germany would also be skeptical about upsetting China too,” owing to auto industry lobbying, the diplomat added.

NEW REPORT: The Heinrich Böll Foundation has this new tool mapping the China strategies across EU countries. Calling Brussels a “pace-setter” on China ties, the foundation’s Brussels chief Roderick Kefferpütz said: “There is a need for greater investment in China competence, inter-ministerial coordination and know-how as well as strengthening resilience.”

UK DEFENSE REPORT

URGENT NEED FOR WAR PLANNING IN TAIWAN: British lawmakers are calling on the army to get serious — really serious — about responses to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, according to a new report issued today by the U.K. Parliament’s defense committee.

Here’s the full quote: “With conflict over Taiwan potentially only years away, the Government and the U.K. Armed Forces must ensure that they have plans for the U.K.’s response, as currently, the UK’s regional military presence in the Indo-Pacific remains limited and the strategy to which it contributes is unclear,” the report reads. “The Ministry of Defence should pursue closer cooperation with partners, including the U.S. and France, and regional allies, to prepare for a range of actions by China against Taiwan.”

Tilt, what tilt? British officials like to brag about the tilt to the Indo-Pacific, which has become the U.K.’s main security policy since March 2021. But the lawmakers are not satisfied with the progress made in the past two and a half years.

Union Jack is invisible in Asia: “We reject the notion that the ‘tilt’ has been ‘achieved’ from a defence perspective,” they say in the report, adding: “With only a modest presence compared to allies, little to no fighting force in the region, and little by way of regular activity, UK Defence’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific is far from being achieved.” If the U.K. wants to play any significant role in the region, “this would need a major commitment of cash, equipment and personnel. Without this, the U.K. may need to curb its ambitions” in the Indo-Pacific.

Time to get tough on China: “The UK Government’s future strategy for the Indo-Pacific is still unclear,” the report states. “We urge the government to create a single, cross-government Indo-Pacific strategy, and within this, the Ministry of Defence should include a comprehensive defence and diplomatic response to the growing threat posed by China under the CCP.”

Government response: “We are delivering on our commitment to support a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is a whole of government effort,” a U.K. government spokesperson said. “We have Royal Navy ships permanently deployed in the region; a permanent Army Garrison in Brunei; U.K. Armed Forces regularly participating in major exercises in the Indo-Pacific; and our UK Carrier Strike Group will return to the region in 2025.”

Conference of London in the pipeline: India and Australia are in talks to host a summit on Indo-Pacific defense and security in London in November or December, with the U.K. also set to be invited. A diplomat involved with organizing the event told Stefan Boscia it would primarily be a chance to discuss “national security and defense in the region,” and several British foreign policy think tanks are expected to be involved. Here’s Stefan’s story for POLITICO Europe PRO subscribers.

**Do you want to know more about Europe’s defense policy and the increasingly important roles played by NATO and the European Union? Join us on November 21 at POLITICO Live’s Defense Launch event and hear from our speakers. Reserve your seat today!**

BALTIC-NORDIC CORNER

CHINESE SHIP UNDER INVESTIGATION FOR BALTIC SEA PIPE MYSTERY: The investigation into the damaged gas pipeline connecting Finland to the rest of Europe is focusing on the role of a Chinese ship, the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation said late Friday.

The Hong Kong flag in question: “The movements of the vessel Newnew Polar Bear flying the flag of Hong Kong coincide with the time and place of the gas pipeline damage,” the investigators said in a statement. “For this reason, the investigation is now focused on the role of the said vessel.”

The 77-kilometer Balticconnector pipeline, which is key to ensure Finland’s energy security, was switched off last week after the Finnish gas grid’s operator Gasgrid reported that it was leaking.

Highly unusual: Finnish officials quickly pointed out that the pipes could have been sabotaged, with Prime Minister Petteri Orpo saying the leak was “not exactly the act of an ordinary person.” The lead investigator, Detective Superintendent Risto Lohi, added that Finland would “cooperate with Chinese authorities in order to establish the role” of the Chinese vessel.

OVER IN LITHUANIA: The Lithuanian parliament’s Speaker Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen arrived in Taiwan on Sunday for a four-day visit, leading a delegation of business representatives. She’s held meetings with outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen and her likely successor Lai Ching-te. Meanwhile, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis will begin a week-long visit to Southeast Asia. He’ll first go to Vietnam and meet Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, followed by Singapore and Indonesia.

SOUTH CHINA SEA FLARE-UP

ON A COLLISION COURSE: Philippine and Chinese vessels collided early on Sunday as Beijing continues to flex its muscles in the South China Sea. The Philippines accused China’s coast guard of “dangerous blocking manoeuvres” that caused it to collide with a Philippine resupply boat about 25km from Second Thomas Shoal (or Ayungin Shoal), which both countries claim to be theirs. The Philippines’ National Taskforce said it “condemns in the strongest degree” the “dangerous, irresponsible and illegal” moves by the Chinese coast guard.

PENTAGON JOINS THE CALL: The Pentagon has accused Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels of “dangerous and provocative” acts targeting Philippine ships attempting to resupply an outpost in the South China Sea. China’s actions in that area of Philippine waters “undermines regional stability” and could trigger a U.S. response in line with the U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty, a defense department spokesperson said in a statement on Sunday.

Beijing is defiant: “We once again urge the Philippines to…tow away the illegally “grounded” warship as soon as possible so that the peace and stability of the South China Sea will not be jeopardized,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement on Sunday.

There are fears that the increasingly frequent confrontations off the shoal might spark open conflict. “I fear that a serious crisis is unfolding at Second Thomas Shoal,” Zack Cooper, a China expert and former assistant to the deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism at the National Security Council, posted to the X social media platform on Sunday.

EUROPE RAISES CONCERN OVER TOO: “Germany is very concerned about recent confrontations in the South China Sea involving Chinese coast guard ships,” the German Ambassador to Manila Andreas Pfaffernoschke said on social media X. “[Germany] calls on all parties to act in accordance with UNCLOS-rules and to respect the 2016 arbitral award.”

**As Europe tries to keep pace in the global tech race, Big Data, Digital Single Market, content moderation is among policy makers’ to-do-list. Stay tuned on tech policies that affects you with POLITICO Pro Technology. Sign up for a demo, here.** 

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

US AMBASSADOR JABS BEIJING FOR HAMAS ALIGNMENT: U.S. Ambassador Nicholas Burns has questioned the Chinese government’s failure to explicitly criticize Hamas for its attack on Israel. “China has taken the position of supporting the two-state solution…the focus here should be directed against Hamas,” Burns said in an interview on Thursday with Bloomberg TV. Beijing doesn’t just refuse to denounce Hamas —it has yet to issue a statement on the crisis that names the military group. “Our position on the current situation is very clear,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday when asked about that refusal.

KURT CAMPBELL DUE A BIG PROMOTION: President Joe Biden is preparing to nominate National Security Council Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell as the next deputy secretary of state, POLITICO’s Alexander Ward and Nahal Toosi reported on Thursday. Campbell has had a hand in virtually everything the Biden administration has done on Asia policy. One of the people familiar with Campbell’s potential move said he may use the job to further centralize U.S. competition with China in the State Department’s work. If confirmed, Campbell is set to be the new interlocutor for the U.S.-EU Dialogue on China, facing European External Action Service Secretary-General Stefano Sannino.

PENTAGON: CHINA’S NUCLEAR ARSENAL EXPANDING FAST: The growth in China’s nuclear arsenal is exceeding Pentagon projections and stood at 500 warheads as of May, POLITICO’s Lara Seligman reported on Thursday. That constitutes an expansion by more than 100 warheads over the same time last year, according to data in the annual China Military Power Report. “This U.S. report, like previous ones, is nonfactual and biased,” Mao, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Friday.

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MANY THANKS: To editor Christian Oliver, and producer Seb Starcevic.