Spanish PM Sánchez calls snap general election after disastrous local polls

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Monday said he would dissolve parliament and call for a snap election for July 23, a day after conservatives and the far right posted strong gains in regional and municipal polls.

Spain was due to hold general elections by the end of the year, but the Socialist leader announced his decision to move up the date following Sunday’s local polls, which saw his party suffer heavy losses across the country.

In a televised statement from Moncloa Palace, the official residence of Spain’s head of government, Sánchez took personal responsibility for his party’s poor showing in the municipal elections, which concluded with nearly all of the country’s largest cities in the hands of the centre-right Popular Party (PP), including longtime Socialist stronghold Seville.

“These results suggest Spaniards should clarify which political forces they want to take the lead,” Sánchez said, adding that it was time to let the people “take the floor and define the country’s political direction.”

Betting it all on the far right

The decision to call an early general election is a bold one for Sánchez, who is wrapping up his four-year term at the helm of the first coalition government in the country’s history.

Spanish law dictates that the vote must be held 54 days after the dissolution of the country’s parliament, meaning there’s a very short timeframe for the prime minister to reverse his current political misfortunes and seduce demotivated leftists and disenchanted moderate voters.

But that small margin may play in Sánchez’s favor because in the coming weeks, the PP is set to make moves that could reenergize the voting blocs the Socialists want to mobilize.

Although the PP’s candidates won in most Spanish cities on Sunday, they largely failed to secure outright majorities. Gaining control of city halls across the country will require the center-right party to enter into coalitions or governing pacts with the far-right Vox party.

By calling snap elections, Sánchez is hoping to seize upon those concerns and argue that voting for the PP opens the door to a far-right governing coalition at the national level in Spain, an outcome that’s unlikely to sit well with centrists.

Last year, Sánchez’s Portuguese counterpart, António Costa, used the same strategy to secure an absolute majority in parliament.

But the success of this roadmap is less certain in Spain, where fear of the far right has recently led voters to paradoxically give even greater support to the more established, conservative PP.

After leading a minority government backed by the far right for three years, in 2022, the PP’s Juanma Moreno evoked the possibility of having to come further in line with Vox to maintain control and was reelected to the presidency of the Andalusia region with an absolute majority.

On Sunday, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the PP’s populist president of Madrid, arrested majority control over the regional parliament by, in part, using similar arguments.

Healing wounds in record time

The reduced timeframe places extreme pressure on Spain’s fractured far left — which must cobble together to make any future Sánchez government a possibility.

During most of this year, the far-left populist Podemos party has been at loggerheads with the new leftist Sumar movement, which is led by Yolanda Díaz, Spain’s charismatic labor minister. But Spain’s electoral system punishes split tickets, and on Sunday this reality was made clear when Podemos was wiped out of several regional parliaments and Díaz’s allies underperformed.

Shortly after Sánchez made his announcement, Díaz said she was up for the challenge of resolving the differences among the far left to defeat “the black Spain” of the right.

“The message received [in Sunday’s local elections] was very clear: things have to be done differently,” she tweeted. “No distractions.”

Podemos Secretary-General Ione Belarra responded by announcing the immediate opening of negotiations with Sumar to come to an agreement.

Whatever the newfound goodwill, both factions will have to move quickly: Spain’s electoral law dictates that coalition parties must be registered within 10 days of the dissolution of parliament, meaning that the irreconcilable discord that has kept Podemos and Sumar apart until now will have to be resolved in record time.

The chaos elections

Holding the national elections in late July also adds an all-bets-are-off element to the vote.

A large number of Spaniards will be on vacation — and it’s unclear how many of them will be willing to go home to vote.

While citizens can vote by mail, recent scandals involving the purchase of these ballots in some cities that means increased use of this system will likely be the source of turmoil.

If the past few summers are any indication, Spaniards will also be voting in the midst of yet another prolonged, deadly heat wave, and at a time when wildfires often ravage the country’s interior.

Participation could be heavily impacted by any of these factors and prove decisive for the outcome.

The elections will also take place just three weeks after Spain takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.

With the Socialist party polling 6 points behind the PP, there is a strong possibility that the rotating presidency may begin with Sánchez as prime minister but conclude with PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo as Spain’s head of government.

That kind of shift could prove to be a major distraction in the midst of the last, full Council presidency prior to next year’s European Parliament election.

These six months were meant to be a “golden” period when much of this term’s landmark legislation is finalized, but the wrap-up of parliamentary activity in Brussels may ultimately be overshadowed by political turmoil in Madrid.

This article has been updated.