London Playbook: Suella speaks — Boat vote on Monday — MPs’ Eurovision scramble

Good Wednesday morning and happy International Women’s Day. This is Eleni Courea, writing Playbook for the next couple of days.

DRIVING THE DAY

SUELLA SPEAKS: Suella Braverman is touring broadcast studios this morning to tout the government’s new “stop the boats” bill, which ministers insist complies with international human rights law … and that they’ll take on any judge who disagrees.

Tune in: Braverman will be live on Sky News at 7.20 a.m. … BBC Breakfast at 7.35 a.m. … the Today program at 8.10 a.m. … GMB at 8.30 a.m. … and GB News at 9 a.m.

Notably: Playbook reckons this is her first-ever broadcast round as home secretary. If it’s nearly as punchy as her Mail op-ed it’ll make headlines.

Switch to parliamentlive.tv at noon … To watch Sunak perform a difficult balancing act at PMQs, where he will try to satisfy both those Tory MPs concerned about how far his bill stretches the U.K.’s obligations under international law — particularly the European Convention on Human Rights — and those who say it doesn’t go far enough.

**A message from SSE: We’re pioneering new carbon capture and hydrogen technologies, levelling up our industrial heartlands and accelerating the transition to net zero. Actions, not ambitions are what’s needed to secure our energy future. SSE. We Power Change. Find out more at sse.com.**

As for the comms: They couldn’t really have gone better so far, and Tory aides will be delighted with this morning’s front pages and leader columns. The Times splash says Sunak is “ready to battle judges over migration” and the Express says sternly: “PM lays down law: we decide who comes here.” The Mail and the Telegraph lead with a rebuke of BBC pundit Gary Lineker for a tweet comparing the bill to Nazi policies, which some Tories hope will open a dividing line on immigration that ultimately puts pressure on Keir Starmer.

See-saw: The Times’ Lobby team and ConHome’s Paul Goodman note that the bill demonstrates the PM has come around to the Home Office’s more hardline stance by deciding to test the limits of international law. One senior Tory told Playbook the legislation goes further than many expected and said it “shows that Rishi is a lot more right wing than people realize.”

On the other hand: Another senior Tory pointed out that Braverman told MPs in response to a question from Hilary Benn on Tuesday that ministers were “certain” the bill “is compliant with all our international obligations,” including the refugee convention. “You don’t need to be a legal expert to work out there is little to no change from current rules,” the same person said.

Day of spin: Despite the tough talk, the PM has been clear he has no intention of leading the U.K. out of the ECHR. He told reporters that “we don’t believe it is necessary to leave the ECHR” and he used even stronger language in the Commons last week, saying “the U.K. is and will remain a member of the ECHR.” Not surprising when you consider that the ECHR underpins the Good Friday Agreement — and that No. 10 is hoping U.S. President Joe Biden will visit the U.K. to mark its 25-year anniversary this spring.

What happens now: For his plan to succeed, Sunak needs to get the bill through parliament unscathed and survive inevitable challenges in the courts … and successfully operationalize the policy, including by setting up enough places to detain people and getting the Rwanda deportations scheme up and running. The government is banking on the bill having a deterrent effect, but the i’s Arj Singh says Priti Patel was advised thousands of deportations needed to happen for this to kick in.

Forget that: Deportations could start this summer, Sunak rather optimistically suggested to journalists from a selected group of friendly papers invited by No. 10 to join the PM in Devon on Tuesday. Playbook won’t take it personally. The Mail, the Sun and the Tel all have the quotes.

Labour response: Yvette Cooper is also doing a broadcast round, speaking to Labour claims that the bill could cost £25 billion over the next five years in hotel bills for asylum seekers.

SCHEDULING SCOOPLET: Playbook revealed that this long-awaited bill was imminent after the Windsor Framework was agreed — and that Monday March 13 was the probable date for it coming to parliament. Playbook now hears that Monday has indeed been penciled in for the bill’s second reading, which will be MPs’ first opportunity to vote on it. The Times says the plan is to get through all stages by September.

The next question … is what is Sunak hoping to unveil after meeting Emmanuel Macron at the first U.K.-France summit in five years on Friday. A government official said a returns agreement to send people who cross the Channel back to France was not on the cards. Instead, talks are expected to focus on measures to tackle gangs and patrol the Channel. The Mail has more.

A reminder: This is the second piece of legislation the Tories are unveiling in as many years to try to solve what most people see as an intractable problem. Some government aides are now openly saying that if this doesn’t work the next stage will be to pledge ECHR withdrawal in the Tory election manifesto — something Sunak will certainly come under pressure to do if this bill doesn’t have the effect he wants.

One MP’s verdict: Asked about the bill, one Tory MP told Playbook their colleagues were “more curious about what else is coming out of Matt Hancock’s messages.”

HANCOCK WATCH

AN APOLOGY OF SORTS: Playbook thought we could mothball this section for good after Matt Hancock got kicked off I’m a Celeb, but here we are.

Last night’s drop: The Telegraph published jokey messages exchanged by ministers and aides back in January 2020 after Gina Coladangelo (of all people) began asking questions about the coronavirus in DHSC WhatsApp groups. The paper also published some of the generally sober discussions that later took place in the run-up to the first lockdown.

As Playbook readers know by now … it’s not just his own career and reputation that Hancock has obliterated by handing over around 100,000 of his most sensitive WhatsApp messages to Isabel Oakeshott, an arch critic of his defining policy as health secretary.

The likeliest political casualty… currently looks to be Cabinet Secretary Simon Case, who the Times now reports “will have no choice but to resign” because some of the messages due to be published by the Telegraph “will be impossible to defend.” A government source tells the Times that Case “was the most indiscreet man in government” (which is kinda worrying given he was previously high up at GCHQ). Watch this space.

BUDGET RUN-UP

ONE WEEK TO GO: The illegal immigration bill is taking up most of the attention — but this time next week Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will be delivering his budget.

Today’s budget row: The Treasury is pressuring the NHS to scrap commitments to train a specific number of doctors and nurses over the next decade because of how much it could cost, the Times’ Chris Smyth reports. Treasury officials have “asked that all the numbers be removed” from the plan, an unspecified source tells him.

Today’s IR story: Expect cash for drones, electronic warfare and air defense to address vulnerabilities exposed by Russia’s war in Ukraine in the refreshed integrated review, according to Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham and Kitty Donaldson. The new IR is now imminent.

Today’s tax policy: Hunt is considering giving firms extra tax relief on investment spending to boost growth, Bloomberg’s Joe Mayes and Phil Aldrick report.

Today’s budget casualty: The 10 or so Trussite investment zones that are reportedly being resurrected in Hunt’s budget are going to be based primarily around universities rather than boosting investment in neglected areas, according to the FT.

Today’s industry policy: Not strictly part of the budget, perhaps, but the Daily Mail reports that Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch is planning measures to support the steel industry. Ministers will be able to overrule independent advice on tariffs from the Trade Remedies Authority under the plans, which will form part of the Finance Bill that implements the budget in law.

**What tools can help the health systems better cope during seasonal infections? Find out and join POLITICO Live’s virtual event “Managing the growing burden of respiratory infections in the EU” on March 29 at 11 a.m. with our healthcare reporter, Sarah-Taïssir Bencharif, and high-level speakers including Andrea Ammon, director, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), among others. Register now!**

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

GRAHAM’S DIARIES: Playbook’s Rosa Prince has written an anecdote-filled profile of “smiling assassin” 1922 Chairman Graham Brady — who announced Tuesday he was standing down at the next election — and reveals he has kept detailed diaries throughout his time in parliament. Something to look forward to.

GRANT’S CRACKDOWN: Grant Shapps banned junior ministers in his energy department from going on foreign trips until they sorted out the backlog of people struggling to claim energy bills, the Guardian’s Bree Allegretti reports. A disabled woman in Cumbria was made to wait so long she was no longer eligible for the warm homes discount scheme.

STRIKES ROUND-UP: RMT members Network Rail called off planned strikes next week, though staff working for train companies are still due to walk out … while Unite members at U.K. Power Networks have rejected what the employer claims is an 18 percent pay increase, and are pushing ahead with strikes with dates to be announced.

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with women and equalities questions before PMQs at noon … Labour’s Paula Barker then has a 10-minute rule bill on the National Minimum Wage. The main business of the day is estimates day for the DLUHC and the DfE. Labour’s Dan Carden has the adjournment debate on supplementary funding for the Global Fund.

WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 9.30 a.m. on topics including the government’s role in promoting financial security and reducing inequality in the Caribbean (led by Labour’s Clive Lewis) … geonomics and national security (managed by the Lib Dems’ Alistair Carmichael) … and the future of the U.K. constitution and devolution (headed by the Tories’ Bim Afolami).

On committee corridor: Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris is giving evidence to the Northern Ireland affairs committee about the effect of paramilitary activity and organized crime on society (9.30 a.m.) … The Home Affairs Committee examines the Home Office’s response to the Windrush scandal (9.45 a.m.) … Armed Forces Minister James Heappey speaks to the defense committee about his work (10.15 a.m.) … and officials from the Financial Conduct Authority are quizzed by the Treasury committee (2.15 p.m.). Full list here.

Report round-up: At least £4.5 billion was lost to fraud and error in the furlough scheme, according to a Public Accounts Committee report.

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with oral questions on topics including reasons why women are paid less than men, protecting women from domestic violence and the extent of the use of WhatsApp for ministerial communications. The main business is the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill.

ON THURSDAY: Shadow Minister for Domestic Violence Jess Phillips will stand up in the Commons and read out a list of the names of women murdered by men in the previous year, as she has done every to mark International Women’s Day since she was elected. She told TalkTV last night why.

EUROVISION CORNER

SCOOP — FACING THEIR WATERLOO: Eurovision fans on Tuesday scrambled for tickets to the grand final in Liverpool, which sold out in barely half an hour. But that was nothing compared to MPs’ bitter scramble for control over the Eurovision APPG last month, Playbook’s Dan Bloom emails to say. Bids to re-establish the group hit the buffers two weeks ago because of a standoff between two rival candidates for chair.

Making their minds up: It should all have been simple — Merseyside Labour MP Maria Eagle was assured she would have backing to be chair, three people in the PCH room where the showdown happened tell Dan. But Tory MP for Heywood and Middleton Chris Clarkson won the chairmanship in a contested vote after he turned up with a posse of his supporters. Eagle left the meeting early, with her backers outraged at Clarkson’s behavior. Clarkson is later said to have offered to make amends — but two attendees told Dan last night there was not yet a Labour officer for the APPG, so it cannot be formally constituted.

Boom bang-a-bang: It appears Clarkson’s team initially said he was happy for Eagle to chair the APPG, but later said this had been a misunderstanding. All those who spoke to Playbook said nobody had wanted a row over a harmless bid to showcase Britain, Liverpool and Ukraine — er, in the week Rishi Sunak unveiled his somewhat more important Northern Ireland deal. It’s not even like they’re fighting over tickets — APPG members are not expected to go to the Liverpool final.

Love shine a light: “It was like a playground,” sighed one attendee. Said another: “It was meant to be a nice thing that was positive for everybody, and it’s turned into a tawdry sh*tty show.” This year’s Eurovision theme is … “United by music.”

**Get ready for POLITICO Live’s Finance Summit on March 23 with our top-notch speakers joining from Paris! They will peek into the telescope to see what’s next for the finance sector, and what role it will play in driving tomorrow’s economy. Register here!**

BATTLE FOR SCOTLAND

LAST NIGHT IN GLASGOW: The three contenders vying to replace Nicola Sturgeon as SNP leader really went for it last night, POLITICO’s Andrew McDonald writes in to say, in a feisty and often bad-tempered STV debate. Finance Secretary Kate Forbes — who remains a real contender despite her difficult first week — opened her cross examination of Humza Yousaf by brutally skewering his record in government.

No, this isn’t a Scottish Tory press release: “When you were transport minister the trains were never on time, when you were justice minister the police were strained to breaking point, and now, as health minister, we’ve got record-high waiting times. What makes you think you can do a better job as first minister?” she asked Yousaf, who is the frontrunner. Compare and contrast with Douglas Ross’ FMQ two weeks ago.

Glasgow kiss: Asked whether she’d include Yousaf in her Cabinet, Forbes said: “Maybe not in health.” His grin got a little bit more strained. If you want to watch either exchange, go to almost any Tory or Labour MSP’s Twitter page to find it clipped up in its entirety.

Having a pop round-up: Yousaf suggested the Scottish government’s coffers had been “short-changed” thanks to Forbes’ negotiations with the Treasury … Ash Regan — the third-placed candidate in the polls — said the others had “wishy-washy” approaches to independence … Forbes and Regan used their opening statements to criticize the government they had served in for years, with Forbes arguing that more of the same would be “acceptance of mediocrity” … Yousaf stressed that he is the only candidate who will “stand up for Holyrood” on Section 35 … and found time to suggest Forbes’ opposition to gay marriage means SNP progressives would desert the party, saying: “Forget persuading No voters — you can’t even keep Yes voters onside.”

Enjoying themselves: Labour’s attack operation is giving the SNP both barrels in a sign that Keir Starmer sees post-Sturgeon Scotland as fertile electoral ground. The Labour Party’s press team embraced the factcheckUK vibe (remember that?) by rebranding themselves on Twitter as “SNP Leaderless Election Hustings” for the evening. They also mocked up a quiz for the occasion.

WINNER: STV and host Colin Mackay. The cross-examination format, time allocated for in-depth discussion and the no-nonsense moderation delivered an entertaining 70 minutes — plus buckets of news lines.

LOSER: As the Tories found out last summer, having your brightest lights slate each other and your long-serving government’s record on primetime TV isn’t always the best idea.

BEYOND THE M25

OVERNIGHT IN GEORGIA: Extraordinary scenes out of Tbilisi overnight and into the early morning, as protesters took to the streets bearing EU flags and chanting “Down with the Russian law.” Thousands of Georgians faced off against riot police, after the parliament passed the first reading of a Kremlin-inspired law that would require organizations that get more than 20 percent of their funding from overseas to register as “foreign agents.”

Putin’s fingerprints: Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili, who is in the U.S. for an official visit, said in a video address: “This law — which no one needed — does not come out of nowhere. It is something dictated by Moscow.” She added: “The Georgia that sees its future in Europe will not allow anyone to take away this future.” Zourabichvili promised to veto the law — but the parliament has the right to overrule her. More here.

What we’re watching: Some incredible photos are doing the rounds here, here, here, here, and there is footage of a woman waving an EU flag as she faces down police armed with a water cannon.

**A message from SSE: It’s time to make a shift. That’s why at SSE, we’re going big. £7 million a day, big. We’re investing right here, right now into infrastructure projects across the UK to accelerate the transition to net zero – from building the world’s largest offshore wind farm, to leading on new carbon capture and hydrogen technologies. Plus, by building new network links to connect places like Shetland to the mainland national grid, we’re harnessing more of Britain’s renewables potential. It’s because of this investment that we’re delivering 1000s of green jobs in communities across the country, developing enough renewable energy projects to power 2 in 3 UK homes and helping businesses become more sustainable. Visit sse.com to find out more about how SSE is investing more than it’s making in profits today, to build an energy system that’s cheaper, cleaner and more secure. SSE. We power change.**

MEDIA ROUND

Home Secretary Suella Braverman broadcast round: Bauer (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.35 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … GB News (9 a.m.) … TalkTV (9.15 a.m.).

Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (6.50 a.m.) … Today program (7.09 a.m.) … GMB (7.25 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … 5 Live Breakfast (8.05 a.m.) … Sky News (8.20 a.m.) … Bauer (8.35 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.) … ITN media clip (9.10 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick (7.05 a.m.) … Eartha Pond, non-executive director of the Football Association (8.35 a.m.) … Defense committee Chair Tobias Ellwood (9.05 a.m.).

Also on Kay Burley: Former Australian High Commissioner to the U.K. Alexander Downer (8.30 a.m.) … Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.K. Vadym Prystaiko (9.30 a.m.).

Also on TalkTV Breakfast: Former Australian Attorney-General George Brandis (7.05 a.m.) … Director of the Centre for Migration and Economic Prosperity Steven Woolfe (7.21 a.m.) … IPPR associate director for migration, trade and communities, Marley Morris (8.05 a.m.) … Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick (8.21 a.m.) … Defense committee Chair Tobias Ellwood (8.30 a.m.) … Former Border Force Chief Immigration Officer Kevin Saunders (9.05 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former Australian High Commissioner to the U.K. Alexander Downer (7.15 a.m.) … Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick (7.50 a.m.) … Children’s Commissioner for England Rachel de Souza (9.20 a.m.).

Also on BBC Breakfast: Women in Sport Chief Executive Stephanie Hillborne (8.30 a.m.).

Nicky Campbell’s political phone-in (BBC Radio 5 Live 10 a.m.): Tory MP Bob Seely … Shadow Exports Minister Nia Griffith … SNP MP Hannah Bardell.

Politics Live (BBC Two 11.15 a.m.): Tory Vice Chairman Saqib Bhatti … Reform U.K.’s Alex Phillips … Journalist Dalia Gebrial … Transport Minister Richard Holden.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page):

Daily Express: Rishi lays down law — we decide who comes here.

Daily Mail: Lineker faces BBC rebuke for likening small boats plan to Nazis.

Daily Mirror: Mum, I’m scared.

Daily Star: Infinity and beyond!

Financial Times: Powell signals return of larger Fed rate rises amid battle to cool inflation.

i: Carry on sewage pumping — water firms are told to self-police their pollution.

Metro: Mum, I’m scared.

POLITICO UK: Graham Brady: the smiling assassin who saw off 4 prime ministers.

PoliticsHome: Government accused of “Groundhog Day” small boats plan that may not deliver.

The Daily Telegraph: BBC urged to sack Lineker after ‘Nazi’ migrant jibe.

The Guardian: Tories ‘extinguishing right to seek refugee protection in U.K.’, says U.N.

The Independent: Marriage to Myself — Tracey Emin’s iconic image for International Women’s Day.

The Times: Sunak ready to battle judges over migration.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sleet and highs of 4C. Yellow weather warning in place over risks of ice and snow. Grim, basically.

IWD IN SW1: A reception to unveil the latest House mag’s list of 100 Women in Westminster and 15 to watch was held across two adjoining rooms the Commons speaker’s house last night, under the watchful eyes of former speakers whose portraits line the walls. Guests were treated to a performance from the Statutory Instruments, parliament’s all-female string quartet.

In memoriam: Deputy Speaker Eleanor Laing gave a heartfelt tribute to the late Betty Boothroyd, the first and still only woman to serve as Commons speaker. Laing recounted her own early days in the Tory whips office, where her presence (semi-literally) put male colleagues’ noses out of joint. “They really objected when my little corner smelled of Chanel No. 5,” she recalled. The first time she acted as a teller, she said, “Betty called me up to the chair, which is when she explained to me exactly what to do — and I’ve passed it on to some of you here today, so I hope it was right!”

Spotted sipping fizz and sampling canapés: Ministers Victoria Atkins, Helen Whately, Victoria Prentis and Gillian Keegan … Speaker Lindsay Hoyle and deputy Eleanor Laing … Shadow Ministers Angela Rayner, Jess Phillips, Angela Smith and Thangam Debbonaire … Committee Chairs Meg Hillier, Harriet Baldwin, Simon Hoare and Diana Johnson … MPs Karen Bradley, Sarah Atherton, Rupa Huq, Harriet Harman, Daisy Cooper and Sarah Olney … Peers Tina Stowell, Floella Benjamin, Beeban Kidron, Nicky Morgan and Virginia Bottomley … Hacks Katy Balls, Kitty Donaldson, Ayesha Hazarika, Jo Coburn, Cathy Newman, Anne Alexander, Louisa James, Alan White, Sophie Church and Tali Fraser (who brought her grandma along) …

And breathe: Mark Wallace, Caroline Wheeler, Pippa Crerar, Kate Devlin, Noa Hoffman, Ione Wells, Aletha Adu … POLITICO’s own Esther Webber, Rosa Prince and your Playbook writer Eleni Courea … Former Westminster Hour legend Carolyn Quinn … The speaker’s press secretary Jackie Storer … the Commons’ Sasha Fuller … Defra’s Tamara Finkelstein … the IfG’s Hannah White … InHouse’s Katie Perrior … U.K. Sport’s Alex Hancock … Labour’s Steph Driver and Sophie Nazemi … and ex-SpAd Salma Shah.

ALSO SPOTTED: At the Next Gen Tories’ launch reception at the Thames Pavilion … Ministers Huw Merriman, Andrew Bowie, Guy Opperman, Paul Scully and John Lamont … Tory MPs Robert Courts, Gagan Mohindra, Chris Loder, Ben Everitt, Brendan Clarke-Smith, Gareth Bacon, Simon Clarke, Jack Brereton, Stephen Hammond and Robbie Moore … hacks James Heale, Mark Wallace, Aubrey Allegretti, Christian Calgie and Tom Harwood … parliamentary aides Tom Ridgway, Ellie Flint, Joe Featherstone and Angus McVean … and Next Gen Tories’ James Cowling, Matthew McPherson, Josh Smith and Alex Brookes.

Also spotted: At the GG2 Leadership and Diversity Awards in central London, Rishi Sunak was declared winner of the Hammer Award which recognizes people who have broken through the glass ceiling. Energy Secretary Grant Shapps collected it on the PM’s behalf, telling the room he was “proud to live in a country where someone with my Jewish heritage can serve in the Cabinet of a British Indian prime minister, and live in a city served by a British Muslim mayor, in a predominantly Christian country.”

Also spotted … At a Women in the City roundtable event at Great Scotland Yard Hotel to mark IWD with Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq … Morgan Stanley’s Clare Woodman … Lloyds’ Elyn Corfield … Barclays’ Katharine Braddick … Mastercard’s Kelly Devine … Goldman Sachs’ Lisa Donnelly … Legal & General’s Lorna Shah … Canary Wharf Group’s Rebecca Worthington … Octopus Investments’ Ruth Handcock … and Lansons’ Rimmi Shah.

As an aside: A frequent talking point among Tories nowadays is how well Labour is doing on business engagement. Reeves extolled the virtues of a “boring” government in a speech to manufacturers Tuesday. Today CityAM carries quotes from shadow ministers calling on Hunt to hurry up with post-Brexit Solvency II reforms.

NEW GIG: Morgan Schondelmeier has moved from the Adam Smith Institute to the British Beer and Pub Association as tax and trade policy lead.

II: Playbook PM noted Tuesday that Lee Anderson — who has been somewhat critical of MPs taking second jobs, picking up broadcast gigs and has said they are “paid handsomely” as it is — has been handed a GB News slot. That gives him three jobs — MP, deputy Tory chair and TV host.

BIRTHDAYS: Middlesbrough MP Andy McDonald … Glasgow North East MP Anne McLaughlin … Leicester East MP Claudia Webbe … Tory peer Greg Barker … Former U.K. Permanent Representative to the EU Ivan Rogers … Tory peer and former ITV boss Michael Grade turns 80 … Former Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd … Former Tory MP Gyles Brandreth … Former U.K. Ambassador to Ireland Robin Barnett … SNP leadership contender Ash Regan.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Noah Keate and producer Grace Stranger.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Playbook Paris | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | Global Insider | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters