Rishi Sunak’s blink-and-you’ll-miss-it COP28

LONDON — Rishi Sunak flies into the world’s biggest climate summit on Friday — and soon flies straight back out again.

The U.K. prime minister, whose government has faced intense scrutiny for a softening of key climate plans, is expected to attend COP28 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for just 11 hours.

Sunak is arriving in the morning and leaving Friday evening — a flying visit for a leader who has faced accusations he is “simply uninterested” in green issues.

French President Emmanuel Macron is sticking around for at least 24 hours, an Élysée official confirmed. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez are expected to make it a two-day stint.

Sunak will also be outdone — at least in terms of time commitment — by the U.K.’s head of state, King Charles III, who arrived on Thursday and will give the opening address at the leader’s summit on Friday morning.

The king — a longstanding climate campaigner — is expected to call on countries to raise their ambitions in a speech that has been vetted by Downing Street. That should ensure there are no mixed messages from the monarch and his prime minister, who will be in the audience looking on.

“I pray with all my heart that COP28 will be a critical turning point towards genuine transformational action,” the king is expected to say, telling leaders that “the hope of the world rests on the decisions you must take”.

The U.K. opposition leader, Labour’s Keir Starmer, also arrived on Thursday and is expected to stay into Saturday. The man who polls suggest is on course to be Britain’s next prime minister will be meeting with green investors and world leaders as he seeks to boost his own climate cred.

Saving the planet (pragmatically)

The prime minister will use his brief time in Dubai, the summit’s host city, to hail the U.K.’s strong prior record on decarbonization and call for an “era of action,” not just pledges, on climate change.

He’ll also be bringing to the world stage a version of his new domestic, green message: that getting to net zero greenhouse gas emissions should be achieved in a “pragmatic” way, alert to cost of living pressures that he believes risk a political backlash against the climate movement.

“The transition to net zero should make us all safer and better off,” Sunak said ahead of the summit, in remarks shared by Downing Street. “It must benefit, not burden ordinary families.”

How that message will go down with fellow Western leaders — many of whom are investing more time in COP28 — remains to be seen. Sunak has faced criticism from green groups at home for paring back net zero targets for electric vehicles and domestic heating, while his commitment to “max out” the North Sea’s oil and gas resources has appalled climate campaigners.

Asked how Sunak would respond if challenged on the U.K.’s apparently diminished climate ambition, the prime minister’s spokesperson told reporters the U.K. remained “a leader on tackling climate change. Our record speaks for itself.”

New climate finance

Sunak can point to the U.K.’s status as the first G7 nation to have put a net zero emissions target into law. The U.K. has also decarbonized faster since 1990 than any other G7 member.

London is also a major contributor of climate finance to poorer countries — and Sunak will unveil £888 million in new commitments at COP28, to be spent after 2025/26. The new funding pledges include £500 million to help prevent deforestation and £316 for clean energy projects.

It will also include £40 million to help set up the totemic new “loss and damage” fund agreed on the first day of COP28 — a new route for climate finance targeted at countries enduring the worst effects of rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns.

Getting the fund up and running represented an early “win” for COP28 — and the U.K. is among the first to commit cash, albeit not as much as either Germany or the UAE, who have pledged £100 million each.

Fossil fuels in the spotlight

But the new rhetoric from Downing Street, particularly around fossil fuels, has risked alienating allies.

The U.K. goes into the conference formally pushing for “phase-out of unabated fossil fuels” — meaning an end to the use of fossil fuels where the emissions are not removed by carbon capture technology.

Sunak will argue that this position is consistent with his policy of issuing new licenses for oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

“It’s important that people understand that even with additional licenses we will still be continuing to reduce the use of oil and gas as we transition to net zero,” the prime minister’s spokesperson said.

That position could come under pressure as COP28 grinds on, with observers expecting a tussle between countries including the EU calling for a “phase-out” and those who back the softer language favored by the UAE hosts and other oil producers: “phase-down.”

Nevertheless, for Sunak, COP28 remains a moment for action — just climate action done the British way.

“The prime minister firmly believes that the way to meet these targets is to bring the public with you,” his spokesperson said. “We believe we have set out the blueprint to do that and we will happy to talk to other countries about how we have approached this.”