The Saudi-Israel deal is in tatters

Shyam Bhatia is an award-winning author and war reporter based in London. He is a former long-time Middle East correspondent for the London Observer.

The Washington-choreographed diplomatic dance between Israel and Saudi Arabia was supposed to culminate in an exchange of ambassadors before the next United States presidential election. But due to Hamas terrorists who killed an estimated 1,200 Israelis and took another estimated 100 hostages this week, this deal is now under threat.

And Israel’s love affair with Saudi Arabia hangs in the balance.

A jubilant Hamas is now hoping the reaction on Arab streets in support of their surprise strike will compel other Arab states to reconsider their recent decisions to normalize relations with Israel.

Bahrain, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan have all seen some pro-Hamas demonstrations. But as casualties mount in Gaza, these rallies are likely to swell across the Arab world. An estimated 200,000 Palestinians in Gaza have already sought shelter at U.N.-run schools, and many thousands will become refugees in the days to come as Israel retaliates and hunts for Hamas leaders.

“Get out” of Gaza, a grim-faced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Palestinians Sunday. His advice was echoed by Israeli army commanders highlighting safe routes to beaches and open fields that are less likely to be targeted. “Hamas has opened the gates of Hell on the Gaza Strip,” Major General Ghassan Alian said in an Arabic language video broadcast over the weekend. “Hamas made the decision, and Hamas will bear the responsibility and pay for its deeds.”

But as the Israeli military pummel Gaza, and possibly launch a ground invasion, Arab leaders who recently normalized relations with the country will now have to find a way of containing the pressure coming from the “Arab streets,” which is calling on them to condemn Israel and sever their new ties with the Jewish state.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco have all opened diplomatic missions in Israel since the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, and these governments have yet to decide how they should respond to the fast-moving events in Gaza. None of them are supportive of Hamas and its radical Islamic ideology — an ideology that demands the replacement of Israel with a fundamentalist Islamic state spanning the Jordan river to the Mediterranean. But if anti-Israeli sentiment rises across the entire Arab world, they may have no choice but to shutter their missions.

In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack, thousands of Arabs were already openly celebrating what they described as Hamas’ “heroic” achievement of invading Israel and killing Jews. And Hamas is only one of several Iranian proxies, all asserting fierce opposition to any form of normalization between Israel and Arab nations.

Islamic Jihad, also based in Gaza, is the second largest group of Palestinian militants after Hamas; and Lebanon-based Hezbollah has taken its cue from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was quoted by state television last Sunday as saying, “Iran supports the legitimate defense of the Palestinian nation.” He then went on to urge Muslim governments to “support the Palestinian resistance.”

So, as the crisis unfolds, Saudi Arabia now faces an almost impossible dilemma.

Until recently, the country was involved in its own crackdown on local Hamas leaders, with many arrested and given lengthy prison sentences for both belonging to and raising funds for a terrorist organization. In 2019, the Saudi authorities arrested then 81-year-old Mohammed al-Khudari, the top Hamas representative in the country, sentencing him to 15 years in prison for supporting Hamas. His son Hani al-Khudari was sentenced to three years in prison. According to Hamas, they were among 60 Hamas supporters rounded up by the Saudis.

But more recently, Saudi Arabia switched domestic tactics, adopting a softer line on Hamas. The Khudari’s and others were released from Saudi jails, and Hamas leaders based in Qatar and Lebanon were permitted to participate in the annual Muslim Haj, or pilgrimage, to Mecca.

Behind these gestures was the hope that Hamas, in turn, would tone down its criticism of Riyadh’s rapprochement with Jerusalem — and it did. But this may change in the aftermath of October 7, as seismic political shocks start impacting the region.

All previous assumptions about opportunities for peace must now be swept away. The Hamas attack is a game changer. And, importantly, ordinary Israelis are in no mood for peace deals with Arab countries after what has happened. They simply want revenge.

If Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman now chooses to ignore pro-Hamas sentiments and continues to pursue hopes of normalizing relations with Israel, he will face broad condemnation from the Arab masses — they will likely label him as the great betrayer of Arabs and Muslims who don’t recognize Israel’s right to exist.

Equally, if he abandons the normalization process with Israel, he then risks losing many U.S. incentives, including a mutual defense pact and civil nuclear infrastructure that matches anything so far developed by Iranian archrivals. “We are concerned of any country getting a nuclear weapon,” bin Salman said in late September. And if Iran does develop a weapon, “we will have to get one.”

It’s hard to imagine that only a week ago both sides were quietly celebrating their blossoming ties, with two Israeli cabinet ministers separately visiting the kingdom. Both Tourism Minister Haim Katz and Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi were ostensibly there to participate in separate international gatherings, but the real purpose of their visits was to highlight what some Israelis had called a secret love affair.

A third member of the Israeli cabinet, Minister of Environmental Protection Idit Silman, was also expected in Riyadh this month, but her visit is now unlikely to take place.

U.S. President Joe Biden had hoped to crown his presidential term with a historic new peace agreement between Israel and the most powerful and influential Arab state, Saudi Arabia — but that hope is now in tatters, buried under the rubble of destroyed Israeli and Gazan homes.