Don’t expect EU sanctions on Azerbaijan — even though MEPs will vote for them

STRASBOURG — The European Parliament is expected to call for sanctions against Azerbaijan on Thursday over the seizure of the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh last month, but Baku’s long lobbying reach in Europe and its crucial gas reserves mean EU countries will probably ignore the MEPs’ demand.

Azerbaijan launched a lightning strike into the breakaway territory in September, forcing 100,000 people to flee. The crisis has exposed a deep division over Europe’s attitude to the two parties. While European politicians are often willing to take Armenia’s side in symbolic appeals and expressions of concern, Azerbaijan has established more hard power, not least because the EU is increasingly turning to Caspian Sea gas as an alternative to Russia after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

The situation "looks like it did with Ukraine," said Nathalie Loiseau, a French lawmaker from the centrist Renew group and chair of the Parliament’s defense committee, one of the co-authors of the resolution supporting Armenia. "But let’s not repeat our mistakes, let’s save our honor, let’s save Armenia," she almost yelled at a pre-vote debate on Tuesday.

Surprisingly, Loiseau won support from voices of far-right ID group — which includes MEPs who have supported Azerbaijan.

"It has to be said that the EU prefers gas to Armenian blood," said Jordan Bardella, one of France’s rising stars on the far right.

Isabel Santos, a Portuguese MEP from the Socialists & Democrats, said the EU’s gas deal with Azerbaijan "must be suspended, displaced populations must be accommodated and efforts must be made to conclude a sustainable peace agreement," while Željana Zovko, from the European People’s Party, called on member countries to help Armenia. Fabio Massimo Castaldo, the most senior MEP in Italy’s anti-establishment 5Star Movement, condemned "the silence, which sacrificed the Armenian population in the name of realpolitik."

The problem for the MEPs is that the power to impose sanctions lies with EU member countries, and they look unlikely to upset Azerbaijan’s autocratic President Ilham Aliyev, who is winning the lobbying war.

EU countries will stick with Baku

Loiseau herself admitted that while her resolution, to be voted through on Thursday, is an important gesture, it won’t ultimately be effective.

“The real question is at member state level: Hungary is very close to Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan, but there are also countries like Austria, Bulgaria and Romania that depend on Azerbaijani gas; and countries like Italy, which is hoping for operating licences for its oil company,” she told POLITICO. Meanwhile, at the top level, “the EU has gone mute” on the crisis, she blasted.

Despite a few tepid messages of concern from senior EU figures, the growing crisis is forcing Brussels to choose between its self-proclaimed values and the benefits of partnership with Azerbaijan.

Prior to the crisis, Europe was moving closer to Baku, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen even traveling there in 2022 and hailing Azerbaijan as one of Europe’s more “reliable, trustworthy” partners. Even before Aliyev’s military assault on Nagorno-Karabakh, the EU chief’s agreement to double the purchases of Azerbaijani gas by 2027 already raised eyebrows.

“Azerbaijan has huge hydrocarbon resources in the Caspian Sea, but to cover its domestic consumption, it has to import gas from Russia, so there’s a thinking in Brussels that the gas contract was a huge mistake, because it means importing some of Russia’s gas,” said Michaël Levystone, an associate researcher at the Russia-Eurasia Centre of IFRI, the French Institute of International Relations.

Gas supply from Azerbaijan’s Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) only accounts for 3.4 percent of the EU’s total imports in 2022, while Moscow still supplied up to 15 percent of the Continent’s gas demand that same year, according to a Commission spokesperson.

Azerbaijan is, however, set to play a pivotal role in Europe’s energy strategy, because of nearby Turkmenistan — which has the world’s fourth largest gas reserves. Both EU and American companies are eyeing transit infrastructure through Azerbaijan, and EU officials are holding meetings to strengthen cooperation.

Lobbying wars

Azerbaijan’s influence strategy started long before the war in Ukraine, recruiting former high-profile personalities from EU governments.

Former German government spokesman Otto Hauser was hired as an honorary consul and the Azerbaijanis secured ties with his political party, the Christian Democrats, according to an investigation by Vice. In France, former justice minister and MEP Rachida Dati has long been a vocal advocate for establishing closer ties with Baku. Azerbaijan also worked with Tony Blair, a former prime minister of the United Kingdom, to advise a BP-led consortium looking to export natural gas from Azerbaijan to Europe.

Baku has consistently invited EU lawmakers too, with some of them still acting as vocal supporters of the regime like Andris Ameriks, an MEP from Latvia in the Socialists and Democrats group, who told POLITICO he still "[supports] Azerbaijan’s integrity."

François-Xavier Bellamy, a French conservative MEP who openly supports Armenia, said several colleagues confessed they had to withdraw their support for one of his pro-Armenia amendments because of pressure coming from their energy ministers and other colleagues. He also said he had been the target of a defamation campaign alleging he was paid by Armenia.

On the other side, Armenia is working with lobbying firm Rasmussen Global and also counting on the European Armenian community, which protested on October 1 in various capitals and is active in calling politicians to action or even putting pressure on candidates ahead of elections. But Azerbaijan’s years of lobbying and economic arguments can hardly be outweighed by the lesser resources Armenia invested in its influence strategy.

“It’s quite embarrassing for Western democracies that we have been sitting idly by while the Azeris de facto have blocked access to Nagorno-Karabakh,” said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, founding chairman of Rasmussen Global and former NATO secretary-general.

For the time being, Europe is clinging to its position as a mediator, but now has to face the fact that peace talks are nowhere near close. Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan were to meet on Thursday in the Spanish city of Granada for Western-mediated talks aimed at ending their historic enmity, but Aliyev canceled just a day before.

“The EU thought that the most important thing was to be involved in mediation, but the problem is that it has gone mute in this mediation,” said Loiseau. “Mediation does not mean being neutral between an aggressor and its victim.”

Eddy Wax and Elisa Braün reported from Strasbourg. Gabriel Gavin reported from Armenia. Sarah Wheaton reported from Brussels.