London Playbook: (Another) 36 hours to go — Labour’s lobbying crackdown — CBI rescue plan

WFH WEDNESDAY? Public service reminder that loads of trains aren’t running today because of the Aslef strike. The tube should be fine though (check here).

Good Wednesday morning. This is Eleni Courea. Dan Bloom will be writing Playbook for the rest of the week.

DRIVING THE DAY

(ANOTHER) 36 HOURS TO GO: Cabinet Office ministers are scrambling to prepare their response to demands by the COVID-19 inquiry’s chair Heather Hallett after a two-day extension.

Super-speedy recap: Hallett has ordered the CO to hand over Boris Johnson’s unredacted COVID-era WhatsApp messages, diaries and notebooks … material which the Cabinet Office insisted was “unambiguously irrelevant” and now claims it doesn’t actually have. No. 10 denies accusations of a cover-up.

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The new extended-truncated deadline is: 4 p.m. on Thursday, June 1 (after ministers asked to be given until June 5).

To make it all go away: Maybe someone will accidentally drop the government computer with all relevant material into the North Sea.

What happens now: A Cabinet Office official told Playbook last night that all options were still on the table — including (no, not the North Sea option) seeking a judicial review of the inquiry’s demands in the High Court. Former government lawyer Jonathan Jones has a handy run-down of the potential avenues for resolution.

So what’s changed since last week? The Cabinet Office issued a punchy statement Wednesday afternoon where it stuck to its guns — it says its main objection is still that the COVID inquiry can’t “request unambiguously irrelevant information.” This could mean we’re set for a legal battle when the deadline finally arrives. But on Wednesday, the government also got a kind of get-out clause if it doesn’t have the material — the Cabinet Office could follow Hallett’s instruction to submit a witness statement from a senior civil servant and a statement of truth confirming the documents are not held.

At that point: The inquiry could turn to Johnson for it.

BOOKMARK THIS: Last night Team Boris insisted to Playbook that if the inquiry asked him for this exact material, not only would he hand it over — but that he is already in the process of disclosing it via his (new) solicitors. Which would kind of solve the problem.

A Tory told Playbook: “The Cabinet Office is in flames and is committing political errors so large they can be seen from the international space station. A series of disastrous decisions to take on Boris and then take on the COVID inquiry are backfiring with massive effect.”

What else is the Cabinet Office? A “political car crash” and “chocolate teapot” which “couldn’t run a bath” (via the Express’ Christian Calgie) … and whose “pants are on fire” (via Chris Hope/the Telegraph splash).

A Tory official hit back … “It’s revealing Boris’ weakness every time it’s ‘a Tory’ source — because it shows no one outside those who he employs is going out to bat for him. People are a bit weary of the Boris show.”

THIS IS ALL PRETTY RIDICULOUS, BUT: It matters because it concerns what material makes it in front of the public inquiry into the government’s handling of the COVID pandemic — and what material is eventually published.

And it’s not just to do with Boris: Every minister who was involved in discussions during the pandemic, including then-Chancellor Rishi Sunak, has an interest in keeping their messages private. An ally of BoJo told the FT’s Lucy Fisher and co that “the WhatsApps the government really doesn’t want disclosed are Sunak’s. Boris is just a distraction in this. The government is taking this position because it doesn’t want current ministers included.” The Mail’s Harriet Line has similar.

On that note: Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham reports the government is sticking by advice it got last year from “Treasury Devil” James Eadie, which said disclosing sensitive COVID-era discussions would undermine the government principle of collective responsibility (for example by revealing Sunak and Matt Hancock rowed over lockdown — though fortunately we have Hancock’s WhatsApps via Isabel Oakeshott to prove that).

Notably: Wickham reports civil servants graded documents requested by the inquiry using a traffic light system based on their political sensitivity. A Cabinet Office official confirmed that the government was seeking to uphold the principle of collective responsibility and that this could affect what material eventually gets published — but insisted this was not a criterion determining what gets submitted to the inquiry.

What Team Boris wants to talk about: Alex Chisholm — the Cabinet Office perm sec who handed over the potentially rule-breaking entries from Johnson’s diary to the police last week — is married to Labour MP Harriet Harman’s cousin, the Express’ Christian Calgie reports. Harman is chairing the Commons privileges committee probe into whether Johnson misled parliament. A government source tells him they are “distant cousins.”

Going under the radar: The timeline of the COVID inquiry means ministers will avoid questions about the deaths of thousands of care home residents — one of the most-criticized aspects of the government response — until after the election, the Telegraph’s Dan Martin points out.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: DWP secretary (and wannabe income tax slasher) Mel Stride is on the morning broadcast round hoping to tout greater childcare support for parents on universal credit. The Guardian has a write-up and DWP minister Mims Davies has a Sun op-ed about it.

WHAT IT DOESN’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT: It’s all scarily déjà vu — but hundreds of mortgage deals have been pulled amid uncertainty over interest rates in the wake of last week’s higher-than-expected inflation … after gilt yields briefly rose to highs not seen since Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-budget (though the upheaval isn’t nearly as bad as it was then).

IN OTHER CHEERFUL NEWS: Artificial intelligence could kill us all, according to today’s Times and Daily Mail front pages. Leading AI experts have issued a joint statement saying there is an urgent need to regulate the sector. My colleague Graham Lanktree revealed in March that U.K. requests to join closer dialogue with the U.S. and EU on AI were rebuffed.

IMMIGRATION NATION

OVER IN NO. 10: Rishi Sunak is spending today in internal meetings as he prepares to fly to Moldova on Thursday for the summit of the European Political Community — an initiative of his BFF Emmanuel Macron.

Photo op alert: EPC leaders will gather at Mimi Castle, a historic winery (hopefully they have some alcohol-free options for our teetotal PM.)

On the agenda: Illegal migration, as far as the U.K. is concerned, and support for Ukraine. The fact the summit is being held in Moldova is a show of Western support in the face of Russia stoking unrest in the country.

Looking to seize the agenda: Keir Starmer has written for the Express saying the U.K. has failed to take advantage of Brexit (there’s a sentence Playbook never thought we’d write). While ruling out a return to the single market, customs union or freedom of movement Starmer said “there is no point pretending everything is working fine. The paper-thin Tory deal has stifled Britain’s potential and hugely weighted trade terms towards the EU.” Tory MP James Daly accused the Labour leader of “flip-flopping.” The piece is meant to preempt Sunak’s trip to Moldova.

Before that trip happens: Macron is addressing at the GLOBSEC 2023 forum in Bratislava today at 1.45 p.m. local time.

Meanwhile at home: The Indy’s scoop on the PCS union threatening strikes by Home Office officials if asked to implement small boats policies they believe are unlawful gets picked up by the Mail and the Sun.

Crowded out: Staff at the Manston asylum center in Kent believe the conditions that led to violence and the outbreak of disease last year could return because of a lack of “upstream accommodation” for processed asylum seekers, the Guardian’s Rajeev Syal and Diane Taylor report.

BUT DON’T FORGET: The question of legal migration is arguably more divisive in the Cabinet and Tory party. The FT has spoken to statisticians who are querying the accuracy of this month’s ONS net migration figures, which were way out of whack with analyst expectations.

IN OTHER BREXIT NEWS: The U.K.’s first post-Brexit trade deals — with Australia and New Zealand — came into force at midnight and trade minister Nigel Huddleston is marking that with a visit to DHL’s Heathrow distribution center. Signed Beano comics are among the first things that’ll be exported. (Send your best gags to the Playbook team.)

In Labour land: Nick Thomas-Symonds has written to Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch slamming the deals as a “mess.” The Mirror’s Sophie Huskisson has the story. NTS is on the morning broadcast round for Labour.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Tumbleweed.

SLEAZE CRACKDOWN: Labour is proposing a five-year ban on ministers lobbying government after they leave office, the FT’s Jim Pickard reveals. The proposals are being put to the party’s National Policy Forum this summer and include fines for ex-ministers who break the rules.

OVER IN THE CITY: This morning the Confederation of British Industry will publish a prospectus on overhauling its governance as it fights to survive following multiple allegations of serious sexual misconduct. Sky’s Mark Kleinman reports that among other options the group has sought legal advice on possible insolvency. Its future will be decided at a crunch meeting on June 6.

CAN MILLENNIALS SAVE RISHI? Not likely, according to More in Common polling written up in a column by the i paper’s Paul Waugh. On Wednesday an Onward report said Sunak could draw hope from the fact voters in their thirties liked him way more than his party. But More in Common asked voters how much of an “asset” they thought each Sunak and Starmer were to their parties — and the two leaders fared very similarly. More in this Luke Tryl thread.

This might help: Tory MP Bim Afolami told Onward on Wednesday that the government should introduce a lower rate of tax for graduates under 40 — the Times has a write-up.

OVER IN THE HIGH COURT: It will hear a case this morning concerning former U.K. ambassador to Washington Kim Darroch, according to the Express.

SOMETHING TO LOOK FORWARD TO: ITV bosses will be quizzed about Phillip Schofield at a Commons committee hearing to discuss the forthcoming media bill, the i paper reports. ITV chief exec Carolyn McCall is among those who could appear. That should be box-office.

ON THE WRONG TRACK: As train drivers walk out, Transport Secretary Mark Harper has slammed “Labour’s repeated failures to condemn these strikes” via the Mail and accused the party of being “in the pockets” of the union chiefs. His Labour counterpart Louise Haigh said ministers have “failed to lift a finger for months.”

TWITTER TECH FIGHT: The U.K. competition authority is under siege from Twitter trolls outraged that it blocked Microsoft’s plan to buy up gaming publisher Activision. Even the blandest CMA tweets are being met with a slew of misspelt abuse from critics. Florian Mueller, a consultant who counts Microsoft as one of his clients, said he’s had to block “several people a day” — more here for POLITICO Pro subscribers.

MORE GRIM STATS: Nearly 70 percent of rape survivors dropped out of the justice system in the fourth quarter of 2022 amid court delays and low conviction rates, according to government data compiled by Labour. It’s written up by the Guardian.

BIG NANNY: The U.K. has risen to 11^th place in this year’s Nanny State Index (co-compiled by the IEA), which says we have the most restrictive tobacco regulation in Europe and the second harshest food and drink rules. The Mail has a write-up.

SW1 EVENTS (AND BEYOND): The Young Fabians discuss how Labour can win and how it should govern with London Assembly Member Leonie Cooper and Westminster City Council leader Adam Hug from 7 p.m. … and, up in Leeds, U.K. in a Changing Europe hosts a discussion with West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin about her role and devolution, also from 7 p.m.

MINISTERS OUT AND ABOUT: Environment Secretary Thérèse Coffey will attend the Suffolk Show to announce around £30 million for cutting-edge farming projects … and Energy Secretary Grant Shapps is teaming up with charities and consumer groups to urge households with pre-payment meters not to miss out on government vouchers for their energy bills.

In warmer climes: Economic Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith is in the UAE today to drum up investment. He’s the first treasury minister to visit the Gulf since Philip Hammond went there as chancellor in 2019.

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BEYOND THE M25

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: The Pentagon accused a Chinese military jet of an “unnecessarily aggressive manoeuvre” in the South China Sea. It published a clip that shows the Chinese pilot crossing within 121 meters of the nose on a US Air Force RC-135 surveillance plane — it’s on the BBC.

MEANWHILE IN PYONGYANG: North Korea claimed there was an accident as it tried to send up its first state satellite which caused it to crash into the sea instead. The botched launch triggered government warnings to citizens in South Korea and Japan. More from the BBC overnight.

TRIAL IN IRAN: An Iranian revolutionary court began the trial of journalist Niloofar Hamedi, whose coverage of Mahsa Amini’s death in custody last year sparked months of protest. The Guardian has a write-up.

UKRAINE UPDATE: Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is spending his second day in Estonia where he will speak to tech entrepreneurs and visit a school set up for Ukrainian children. He heads to Oslo this afternoon for meetings with NATO ministers (who are raising pressure on Turkey to let Sweden join the alliance) and will attend a reception with the king of Norway. In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of trying to frighten Russians after Tuesday’s drone attacks on the city — the BBC has more.

Speaking of NATO: Ukraine is stepping up its campaign to get a firm promise of NATO membership. Ukrainian officials want NATO leaders to make a concrete political gesture putting Kyiv on the path to membership during its upcoming Vilnius summit in July. My POLITICO colleague Lili Bayer has the story.

Meanwhile in South Africa: The government plans to change the law so it has the power to decide whether or not to arrest a leader wanted by the International Criminal Court, Deputy Minister Obed Bapela has told the BBC. The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over his war in Ukraine — and Putin has been invited to visit South Africa in August. Assuming he turns up, this change would remove South Africa’s obligation to arrest him (the country wants to remain neutral and has refused to condemn the invasion).

KOSOVO UPDATE: NATO will deploy an extra 700 troops to Kosovo amid rising tensions with ethnic Serbs. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said an additional battalion of reserve forces have also been put on high alert to be deployed if needed. Sky News has the story.

CASH CUT-OFF: Today is the deadline for the SNP Westminster group to submit audited accounts, or lose £1.2 million of Short Money.

IN THE TEES VALLEY: Tory Mayor Ben Houchen faces more accusations of secrecy after plans for a third transfer of public assets in his northeast England region were leaked to the Financial Times’ Jen Williams. Houchen struck a secret deal with Hartlepool council to take control of civic buildings including the town hall.

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MEDIA ROUND

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride broadcast round: GB News (6.45 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.).

Shadow International Trade Secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds broadcast round: Today program (6.50 a.m.) … LBC News (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … TalkTV (8.20 a.m.) … GB News (9.05 a.m.).

Also on GB News Breakfast: Political analyst Leon Emirali (6 a.m. and 7 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Former Metropolitan Police Chief Superintendent Dal Babu (7.20 a.m.) … British Dental Association Chair Eddie Crouch (7.35 a.m.) … Former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General for Emerging Challenges Jamie Shea (7.45 a.m.) … ASLEF General Secretary Mick Whelan (8.15 a.m.) … Former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey (8.45 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Breakfast: Mick Whelan (7.30 a.m.) … Former Boris Johnson Adviser Alex Crowley (9.20 a.m.) … Former Royal United Services Institute Director General Michael Clarke (9.35 a.m.) … NHS Charities Together Chief Executive Ellie Orton (9.45 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: U.K. Hospitality Chief Executive Kate Nicholls (8.45 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Labour peer Charlie Falconer (7.10 a.m.) … Mick Whelan (7.20 a.m.) … Amnesty International U.K. Program Director Oliver Feeley-Sprague (7.40 a.m.).

Also on TalkTV Breakfast: Tory peer Robert Hayward (7.20 a.m.) … Author Anthony Seldon (8.30 a.m.).

Nicky Campbell’s political phone-in (BBC Radio 5 Live 10 a.m.): Tory MP Kieran Mullan … Nick Thomas-Symonds … Green Party Co-Leader Carla Denyer.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: ChatGPT boss kicks off EU charm offensive.

Daily Express: Civil servants threaten to strike over migrants.

Daily Mail: AI ‘could wipe out humanity.’

Daily Mirror: Running & hiding.

Daily Star: Spy who came in from the cod.

Financial Times: Western nations raise pressure on Erdoğan to admit Sweden into NATO.

i: AI creators fear the extinction of humanity.

Metro: Teacher lost job for taking on teen yobs.

The Daily Telegraph: Cover-up row over ministers’ WhatsApps.

The Guardian: Government accused of cover-up over battle for Covid evidence.

The Independent: Boris’s WhatsApps — who’s telling the truth and who’s bluffing?

The Sun: Defiant Holly back on Monday.

The Times: AI pioneers fear extinction.

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LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sunny intervals and 21C highs.

NEW GIG: Former Labour Party policy chief and election manifesto-writer Claire Ainsley has been snapped up by WPI Partners as a senior adviser. She will focus on its BizUK initiative inviting businesses to contribute long-term ideas to major political parties ahead of the next election. Ainsley left LOTO in December.

More new gigs: The Climate Change Committee has hired James Richardson as its chief economist (he joins from the National Infrastructure Commission where he has been chief economist for the last seven years) … Jamie Hanley is joining the GMB union as national legal director from June 1 … and Ella Cotton joins the Jeremy Vine team on Radio 2 one day a week for the next few months.

MOVING ON: Federica Cocco bids farewell to the FT and is moving abroad for a new role.

JOB ADS: The Council on Geostrategy is hiring a research fellow in science, technology and economics … Thomson Reuters Foundation is looking for a head of programs … and News U.K. is hiring a senior software engineer.

FUN FOR HACKS: Drop the Dead Donkey returns to the stage 25 years after concluding on TV. Reuniting seven of its original cast members, the sitcom will tour the U.K. from January to June, opening at Richmond Theater.

HIT THE HAY: The Hay Festival continues with a mixture of guests including Transport Minister Jesse Norman … Former Tory MP Justine Greening … Broadcaster Peter Snow … Barrister Jolyon Maugham … Financier Ben Goldsmith … and author Jonathan Coe.

Tune in today: At 4.30 p.m. the BBC Radio 4 Media show airs an episode on Westminster journalism recorded at the Hay Festival on Friday with Sunday Times pol-ed Caroline Wheeler, author Ian Dunt, former No. 10 director of communications Guto Harri and your Playbook author Eleni Courea.

CULTURE FIX: Explore the life and work of painter William Hogarth in an online session run by the National Gallery from 5.30 p.m. … or listen to Jeremy Deller reflect on the politics and history that has inspired the key works of his career at the Queen Elizabeth Hall from 7.30 p.m.

TV LISTINGS: The 2017 film The Death of Stalin, directed by The Thick of It creator Armando Iannucci, is on BBC Two at 11.45 p.m.

CONGRATS TO: Tiffany Sweeney, a journalist and a BBC alum, who married Myles Bull, a franchisee, in Budapest earlier this month.

BIRTHDAYS: Former Deputy PM John Prescott … No. 10’s deputy head of news Camilla Marshall … Former Sedgefield MP Phil Wilson … V&A director and former Stoke-on-Trent Central MP Tristram Hunt … The Telegraph’s Dominic Penna … TalkTV senior producer Gareth Milner.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Joe Stanley-Smith, reporter Noah Keate and producer Dato Parulava.

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