Orbán’s push to sink Ukraine plans

Опубликовано: Monday, 23 February 2026 04:48

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By NICHOLAS VINOCUR

PRESENTED BY

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On today’s Brussels Playbook Podcast: Zoya and Nick discuss a high-stakes meeting of EU foreign ministers.

WELCOME TO THE WEEK. This is Nick Vinocur.

DRIVING THE DAY

SPOILER ALERT: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is threatening to blow up the European Union’s entire support package for Ukraine amid a spat over energy deliveries on the eve of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The threat looms over a trip to Kyiv tomorrow by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa to mark the war’s anniversary. (Our Chief EU Correspondent Zoya Sheftalovich will be along for the ride — stay tuned).

**A message from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion: The European Employment and Social Rights Forum is back on 3-4 March, at The EGG in Brussels and online. This year’s focus: how to empower people in times of change. Register now to take part.**

Von der Leyen and Costa had hoped to come bearing gifts: a 20th package of sanctions against Russia agreed by the EU’s foreign ministers, along with the promise of EU financial aid in the form of a €90 billion loan. But now, in a twist that may delight Russian President Vladimir Putin, the pair may show up in the Ukrainian capital empty-handed.

Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó warned in a post on X over the weekend that Budapest would block the EU’s latest package of sanctions against Russia at a gathering of foreign ministers today unless Kyiv allows Russian oil to flow to Hungary and Slovakia.

Hungary is also threatening to block the €90 billion loan for Kyiv agreed by EU leaders in December (except for Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic), which is key to Ukraine’s wartime survival, as my colleagues Gregorio Sorgi and Bjarke Smith-Meyer reported on Friday.

Diplomats had sounded upbeat in the run-up to today’s gathering of foreign ministers in Brussels (more on that below) about the chances of getting a deal on the sanctions package before Tuesday’s anniversary of the war. But that was before Hungary’s blowup over the weekend. Now they’re uncertain.

“I’m not sure they will resolve it tomorrow,” one senior diplomat tracking the issue told Playbook late on Sunday. Another diplomat said the sanctions package is likely to win approval — but not in time for von der Leyen and Costa’s trip to Ukraine.

We’ve seen this movie before: “Whenever we are about to close negotiations on a sanction package, Hungary jumps up and says, ‘Wait a minute. We can’t approve this,’” said an EU diplomat. This time, diplomats “are like, here we go again.” EU ambassadors are expected to meet for a special Coreper II session today, after the Foreign Affairs Council, that diplomat said.

Orbán is practised in the art of brinkmanship, repeatedly using threats of blockage to his advantage in recent years. “We’ve always been able to resolve it,” said another EU diplomat. “So far so good.” This time, though, the Hungarian prime minister is putting himself at the center of the European conversation as he faces an uphill reelection battle at home.

Most worrying to the diplomats is that Hungary is also threatening to derail the loan to Kyiv, having agreed to it in December and again at Coreper in February. “Going back on his word is not something we know from Orbán,” one said. “In fact it’s the one thing we’ve been able to rely on with Budapest. If that’s no longer the case, then we’re approaching new territories.”

The bottom line: With elections approaching in April, Orbán seems willing to take ever bigger risks stoking confrontation with Kyiv and Brussels. The question is whether it will pay off at the ballot box. So far, polls suggest that Orbán’s approach isn’t tracking with voters, who are leaning toward his rival in the race, Péter Magyar.

NOW READ: U.S. Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder and Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker have published a joint op-ed on POLITICO Europe this morning urging the EU not to exclude American defense companies from procurement programs as it pushes to rearm the continent.

“We welcome member countries’ efforts to ramp up their defense budgets and the EU utilizing financial levers to encourage more defense spending,” the ambassadors write. “But not at the cost of decades of cooperation by fragmenting the defense market and reducing the effectiveness of joint efforts.” Read the full piece here.

ICELAND AND EU

ICELAND PONDERS EU EMBRACE: As U.S. President Donald Trump revives his interest in Greenland, neighboring Iceland is considering a vote to restart EU membership talks as early as August, Zoya Sheftalovich reports in a story out this morning. The renewed EU membership talk coincides with growing concerns about security for a country that does not have its own army and relies on NATO for its defense.

Picking up the pace: Reykjavík’s governing coalition had vowed to hold a referendum on restarting EU accession talks by 2027, but that timeline is now being sped up after American decision to impose tariffs on Iceland and Trump’s threats to annex Greenland. The move to hold the ballot comes after a flurry of visits by EU politicians to Iceland and by Icelandic politicians to Brussels. It also follows Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum last month in which he mentioned Iceland four times — albeit, by mistake.

If Icelanders vote yes, the country could join the EU before any other accession candidate, a person familiar with the preparations said. The Icelandic parliament is expected to announce a referendum date in the next few weeks.

“The conversation on enlargement is shifting,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told POLITICO. “It is increasingly about security, about belonging and about preserving our ability to act in a world of competing spheres of influence. This concerns all Europeans.” Kos met Iceland’s Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir in Brussels last month.

MORE ON THE FAC

WHAT’S IN THE PACKAGE? One reason EU diplomats were so keen to get the 20th Russian sanctions package approved is a new instrument that promises to pack a punch against Russia’s oil and gas revenue. The bloc’s proposed maritime services ban aims to deny crucial maintenance and insurance services to ships carrying Russian hydrocarbons, further tightening the noose around Moscow’s energy exports.

In briefings ahead of today’s Foreign Affairs Council, diplomats pointed to objections from Greece and Malta, which both have substantial shipping sectors, as potentially holding up the deal. But the diplomats were positive about reaching an agreement — until Hungary’s objections over the weekend.

No dillydallying: Two diplomats said the EU wouldn’t wait on the G7 meeting in June to act on the maritime services ban.

ALSO HAPPENING: Foreign ministers will start the day with a breakfast on the Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference — that’s FIMI to you. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will be present via video link, as has been the custom. Ministers will also discuss Donald Trump’s Board of Peace initiative with Nikolay Mladenov, a former Bulgarian diplomat whom the U.S. president has named high representative for Gaza.

Who agreed to this? The envoys will chew over the European Commission’s decision to send Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica as an observer to the Board of Peace in Washington — a move that came in for sharp criticism from several EU capitals.

Still on the Middle East, foreign ministers are expected to talk about Israel’s activity in the West Bank following a statement from 85 countries condemning Israeli settlements in Palestinian areas. Iran will also feature amid increased concern the U.S. and Israel could launch strikes against Tehran in coming days.

TRADE TROUBLE

TRUMP’S NEW TARIFFS THROW EU-U.S. DEAL INTO PERIL: The European Parliament is poised to freeze the EU’s trade deal with the U.S. this afternoon, Camille Gijs writes in to report, as tariffs imposed in response to Friday’s blockbuster Supreme Court ruling threaten to unravel last summer’s transatlantic agreement.

The fresh tariff uncertainty has pushed the EU’s top trade lawmaker, Bernd Lange, to pause the vote on legislation implementing the EU’s side of its transatlantic trade agreement, scheduled for tomorrow. In a meeting this afternoon, Lange will propose suspending a vote “until we have a proper legal assessment and clear commitments from the U.S. side.” The call by Lange, a Social Democrat, was supported by the Greens.

The European People’s Party (EPP) was initially cool to the proposal to delay the vote, but its top negotiator, Željana Zovko, appeared to support a pause, saying the EU “cannot take any abrupt decisions.” Without a detailed assessment of the new tariff’s legal implications and its economic impact, it would be “irresponsible to react prematurely,” Zovko told Camille Sunday.

The move by the lawmakers comes after the European Commission put out an unusually blunt statement Sunday demanding “full clarity on the steps the United States intends to take” following the Supreme Court decision. One day after the ruling, Trump announced he would impose a new global tariff rate of 15 percent, escalating the 10 percent rate he announced immediately after the ruling.

Turning on Turnberry? That new tariff rate, due to apply from Tuesday, throws uncertainty over a deal struck last July at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. European negotiators, aware of the legal risks to Trump’s sweeping International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs, locked in a U.S. tariff of 15 percent.

Trust us, it’ll be fine: The U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Friday that the administration was “confident that all trade agreements negotiated by President Trump will remain in effect.” But officials and experts aren’t so sure. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned Sunday it is “critically important” to have clarity about the future of the trade relationship.

IN OTHER NEWS

PUSHBACK ON TRAVEL BAN: French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Trump to lift the sanctions imposed by the U.S. last year against former EU tech czar Thierry Breton, International Criminal Court judge Nicolas Guillou and other Europeans involved in curbing hate speech online. Macron made the request in a letter to the White House last week, my colleague Ben Munster reports.

SOUTH PUSHES FOR RETURNS: Migration ministers from Italy, Greece and Spain are meeting in Rome Tuesday with a delegation from Pakistan to push for better cooperation on the repatriation of migrants, according to a senior Greek official. The ministers will then meet delegations from Bangladesh and Egypt, Nektaria Stamouli writes in to report.

AGENDA

— Foreign Affairs Council at 10 a.m. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas chairs. Agenda.

— Agriculture and Fisheries Council at 10 a.m. Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen attending. Agenda.

— Culture Commissioner Glenn Micallef visits Slovenia to meet Economy Minister Matjaž Han.

— Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall meets Austrian Agriculture Minister Norbert Totschnig in Vienna.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: High of 12C. Cloudy.

REDUCTIO AD HITLERUM: U.S. Ambassador to Belgium Bill White has doubled down on his threat to ban Belgian socialist leader Conner Rousseau from the U.S. unless the Flemish lawmaker apologizes for comparing Donald Trump to Hitler. “There is no reason for [Rousseau] to travel to America and he will not be doing so anytime soon — until he issues a retraction. Period,” White posted Saturday on X. Belgian Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Prévot reacted by condemning “the very idea that an MP and party leader could face an entry ban for exercising his freedom of speech.”

De Wever for president: Bart De Wever would be a “good president for Europe,” White said in an interview with De Tijd, arguing the Belgian prime minister reconciles different camps and isn’t easily intimidated. “Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tried with her proposal to seize the frozen assets at Euroclear, but he stood his ground,” White said.

Euroclear role: White also revealed he intervened in De Wever’s Euroclear standoff, in which the Belgian leader stared down moves by the European Commission to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s military response to Russia’s invasion. “I called Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She then spoke with our president and decided to support Belgium,” White said.

WATER WOES: Staff in DG COMP’s Madou Plaza Tower office have been experiencing “less than optimal” working conditions, with the heating, sanitary system and now the water “not functioning to the level we should expect,” according to an email last night from Acting Director-General Linsey McCallum seen by Playbook’s Gerardo Fortuna. For now, employees have been told to drink water from fountains in meeting rooms rather than the kitchenettes or cafeteria, for “precautionary” reasons. McCallum said she’s in contact with the Commission’s Office for Infrastructure and Logistics to get a full assessment of the building’s condition.

BLOW FOR HOMELESS SUPPORT: The medical post of the “Humanitarian Hub,” which allows homeless people and undocumented migrants in Brussels to receive medical care, is threatened with closure in March, according to De Standaard. Volunteer doctors fear the closure will claim lives if people with easy-to-treat conditions fail to seek help until their illnesses become life-threatening, with the number of tuberculosis cases already on the rise.

BIRTHDAYS: Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski; MEPs Pascale Piera and Kira Marie Peter-Hansen; New Statesman’s Tom McTague; Anne-Claude Martin of Fourtold.

THANKS TO: Hanne Cokelaere, Camille Gijs, Victor Goury-Laffont, Playbook editors Alex Spence and James Panichi, reporter Ferdinand Knapp and producer Dean Southwell.

**A message from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion: The European Employment and Social Forum is back. This year’s edition will address the EU’s response to the challenges many people face today: the rising cost of living, job insecurity, and changes in the labour market. Opinion leaders, policymakers, businesses, academics and civil society will be invited to explore bold ideas to support Europe’s greatest strength: its people. Across two days, expect high-level discussions and working-level exchanges on quality jobs, fair labour mobility, poverty and the cost of living. Join us on 3–4 March at The EGG in Brussels and online.**