Global Playbook: Beijing descends on Davos

Опубликовано: Monday, 15 January 2024 21:05

Presented by IBM

By SUZANNE LYNCH

PRESENTED BY

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GREETINGS from the snowy peaks of Davos, where the schmooze-fest known as the World Economic Forum kicks off later today. I’m Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook author, bringing you an essential daily diet of news, analysis and gossip.

TRAFFIC REPORT: Davos is at a virtual standstill as figures from the business, tech and political world make the two-hour drive from Zurich. But if you’ve got money to burn, why not hitch a ride on a chopper? Charter helicopter firm Blade is offering 20-minute flights from Geneva — featuring “stunning mountain views” of the Matterhorn — which’ll drop you off a 5-minute drive from the conference center. Sadly, Playbook has chopper tastes, but a minibus budget.

Not going to make it to the WEF slopes this year? Don’t worry — we’ll be in your inbox each morning, right through till Saturday, giving you the inside track on what the movers and shakers are up to, on and off the slopes. More on last night’s parties below — but before that …

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK

CHINA FREAKOUT: POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi has this killer scoop this morning: U.S. officials are worried about the size — and the intent — of the Chinese delegation hitting Switzerland this week. Though President Xi Jinping is skipping Davos, the Chinese are back in full force as they try to charm global investors, seeking to boost their sluggish economy. Premier Li Qiang, who delivers a keynote speech Tuesday, leads the delegation.

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Influence battle: Beijing “will have 10 state ministers in attendance,” according to a State Department document dated January 12 and obtained by Nahal, noting that China’s No. 2 will meet Swiss leaders. “Amb. Miller characterized it as a ‘pseudo state visit,’” the document states. (That’s apparently a reference to Scott Miller, the U.S. ambassador to Switzerland.)

Charm offensive: As a result, the U.S. State Department is trying to snag a meeting between Secretary Antony Blinken and Switzerland’s President Viola Amherd, to ensure Washington doesn’t lose ground to Beijing when it comes to the notoriously neutral Swiss. “Amb Miller believes it would be bad optics if S doesn’t at least have a handshake with new Pres of Swiss Confederation, Viola Amherd, who has made herself completely available for a meeting.” (For those of you not familiar with the Netflix series “Madam Secretary,” S is Foggy Bottom’s shorthand for the secretary of state. Playbook recommends tuning in, it’s quite fun.)

Timing is everything: It all comes as William Lai, a China-skeptic with a track record supporting independence, won the Taiwanese presidential election on Saturday, in a result that risks inflaming tensions between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea, as POLITICO’s Stuart Lau reports.

Zelenskyy-watch: Meanwhile, U.S. and EU officials are also watching nervously to see if Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Chinese officials in Bern, the Swiss capital, today, before he heads up to the Alps ahead of a keynote in Davos on Tuesday. Let’s see if he raises Beijing’s cozy relationship with the Kremlin, and its bankrolling of President Vladimir Putin’s economy as China continues to guzzle Russian gas and oil.

In from the cold: China wasn’t represented at Sunday’s meeting of national security advisers to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine at Davos. But many Kyiv-watchers believe it should play a more central role in any discussions about Ukraine’s future. “China plays a significant role. We must find ways to work with China on this,” Switzerland’s Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said after Sunday’s meeting.

VYING FOR FACE-TIME: Meanwhile, Zelenskyy faces an uphill battle to keep international attention on the war in Ukraine, particularly as focus turns to the Middle East following the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel. As Nahal writes in this walk-up piece, while Zelenskyy was once the darling of the global elite, now he’s trying to avoid being just another bystander at their party.

POLITICO MUST-READ

DAVOS DIRTY DOZEN: While there’s been a distinct dearth of Russian oligarchs in attendance at the WEF since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Donald Trump is tied up with the Iowa caucus, there are still plenty of would-be autocrats, spoilers and political pariahs on the Davos guest list, writes Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

WEF problem kids: High up the list of the Davos “dirty dozen” is Argentine President Javier Milei, the former shock-jock and Davos regular whose unorthodox economic policies have sent shivers up the spine of the financial world. (He’s due to address the forum Wednesday.)

Also on the list: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is reportedly going to make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event, accompanied by a giant posse of his top officials. The Saudis are continuing their Davos takeover, nabbing a prominent spot on the promenade again this year.

Speaking of MBS: Maybe he’ll catch up with his old pal Jared Kushner on the ski slopes. The two struck up a friendship during the Trump presidency — and quelle surprise, Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners, landed a $2 billion investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund led by MBS (pushed through despite objections by the Saudi leader’s advisers). All that and more in Zoya’s story.

LET THE SCHMOOZING BEGIN

WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT: With more than 60 heads of state and government in attendance, Davos still manages to attract a top-tier crowd. But there are also some noticeable absences.

WHO’S HERE: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Argentinian President Javier Milei, former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon, PM of South Korea Han Duck-soo, PM of Spain Pedro Sánchez, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister of Vietnam Phạm Minh Chính, Open AI chief Sam Altman, U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron, Polish President Andrzej Duda.

WHO’S NOT: U.S. President Joe Biden, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian PM Narendra Modi. And X boss Elon Musk, who isn’t invited, according to the WEF — not that he’s bitter about it.

WHO KNOWS? Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador — though originally on the guest list, he’s dealing with an eruption of violence in his country which has seen gang leaders escape from prison. Greta Thunberg — the climate activist has brought her brand of protest to the WEF in previous years. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — will the de-facto Saudi leader make his first appearance at the forum this year?

WE’RE STILL DOOMED

A LITTLE LIGHT READING: It wouldn’t be the World Economic Forum without a slew of economic reports. Here’s a digest of the top findings out today …

The rich are getting richer: The EU’s five richest billionaires saw a 76 percent rise in their wealth since 2020, to €429 billion last year — that’s a whopping €5.7 million per hour, according to Oxfam. The NGO again floated the idea of a wealth tax on high earners. Which isn’t likely to go down well among the Champagne-quaffing global elite here at Davos.

Innovation sucks: It looks like the world has a new enemy: innovation. According to Edelman’s Trust Barometer, most respondents believe innovation is being poorly managed and is driving polarization. The trend is particularly notable in the U.S. — where more than two-thirds say science is too politicized. Great start to the election year, then.

Gen Z hearts Davos? The world’s rich and powerful have found an unlikely fan base: Gen Z. According to research from Salesforce, those born from the mid-late 90s onwards are more optimistic than any other generation about the power of global leaders to effect change. (Pity Gen Z has virtually zero representation on the official program at Davos.) Write-up here.

C-SUITE CORNER

WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN: After U.S. stock markets made a dazzling comeback in 2023, some of finance’s biggest names are arriving in Switzerland to bask in the glory and do deals on the sidelines. But it’s not all rosy.

Good times: BlackRock announced a massive $12.5 billion deal to buy Global Infrastructure Partners as it makes a bet in alternative assets. And Chase’s Jamie Dimon will have a spring in his step after the lender reported its best-ever annual profit last week.

Bad times: Citigroup announced plans Friday to cut 20,000 jobs by 2026. Not surprisingly, CEO Jane Fraser is not an official participant this year. Google also announced a new wave of layoffs last week. But things mustn’t be too bad — there’s still enough dosh to splurge on a splashy Google presence this year.

AROUND TOWN

WEATHER UPDATE: High of -6C/22F; low of -15C/5F.

GET A GRIP! While the sky may be blue and the snow levels on the promenade low to moderate, don’t be fooled by the seemingly benign conditions. Delegates are being given special shoe grippers this year in their welcome packs — might be a good idea to use ’em.

REPORT FROM THE TRENCHES: Scores of people, many juggling ludicrously capacious bags (h/t Tom Wambsgans), stood in line last night as darkness fell near Davos Platz, waiting to collect their hotel badges, which give WEF wannabes access to the town’s hotels. Let’s face it — that’s where all the action happens anyway.

Snow-shaming: But the plight of these not-quite-so-Davos-elite is nothing compared to the -23C/-9F temps gripping the U.S. state of Iowa right now, as Republicans gather for the Iowa caucus tonight, where the U.S. presidential election season really begins.

THE INCREDIBLE VANISHING MEDIA CENTER: Nothing says “we’ll tolerate your presence — but don’t get too comfortable,” better than the decreasing space allocated to journalists at the WEF with every passing year. (Was it something we said?) Reporters will have to make do with just the first floor of the media village.

SPOTTED

— John Kerry in the United Airlines lounge in Dulles Airport working hard on his iPad after news broke that he was leaving his climate czar post. The climate-conscious Kerry flew commercial (though he did take a private car from Zurich airport to Davos).

— Senior Microsoft officials waiting over an hour to collect their WEF badges after a computer malfunction. Should’ve called in tech support?

— At last night’s CloudFlare Techies Dinner at Barry’s Piano Bar: CEO of CloudFlare Matthew Prince, venture capitalist Mark Gorenberg, Formlabs co-founder Natan Linder, Nickel Digital Asset Management CEO Anatoly Crachilov, Link Ventures’ John Werner, Yale’s Dan Esty, EverQuote’s Dave Blundin, WISeKey’s Philippe Monnier, Shantanu Surpure, Mark Mueller-Eberstein, Vince Chadwick, Pretiosum Ventures’ Yana Abramova, Jonathan Cardenas.

— Vote Latino chief María Teresa Kumar, Devex boss Raj Kumar and their kids on the train to Davos on Saturday.

THANKS TO: Nahal Toosi, Alex Ward, Zach Warmbrodt, Jamil Anderlini and Cristina Gonzalez.

Global Playbook could not happen without Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

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