Parties in Germany’s ruling coalition projected to suffer big losses in state elections

In two German state elections that are seen as a bellwether for the national mood, the three parties that comprise the country’s coalition government on the federal level suffered significant losses, while insurgent parties, including the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained ground, according to early projections.

Conservative forces won clear victories in both the states of Bavaria and Hesse, according to early projections. In Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU), a sister-party to the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), won 37 percent of the vote, according to the projections, slightly less than the party won in the last state election five years ago. In Hesse, the CDU won 35.5 percent of the vote, marking a significant improvement over the last state election.

If the exit polls are accurate, the results will be seen as a sign of deep dissatisfaction with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition — made up of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) — at a time of growing economic and social insecurity.

In Hesse, the SPD appeared to be in a tie for second place with the AfD, with both parties projected at 16 percent. In Bavaria, the Greens came in second with 16 percent of the vote, only slightly ahead of the AfD, according to the projections.

The election results are particularly bad for the FDP, which is projected to get only 3 percent in Bavaria, meaning that it won’t make it past the 5 percent hurdle needed to get into the state parliament. That would make it the fourth state in which the FDP did not make it into parliament since the party joined the federal ruling coalition. In Hesse, the FDP is projected get 5 percent of the vote.

The upstart right-wing Free Voters party in Bavaria is projected win 14 percent of the vote, marking an improvement over the last state election in Bavaria in 2018.