The next Tory leadership contest has already begun

LONDON — Rishi Sunak is the ruling U.K. Conservatives’ third leader inside a year. But already, Tory MPs are thinking about who comes next.

A drubbing for the Tories in local elections across England earlier this month, and a stubbornly high poll lead for the opposition Labour Party, has left Tory MPs mulling the prospect of a general election defeat next year — and the likelihood of yet another bloody leadership contest in the aftermath.

Sunak, who recently marked his 200th day in office, has little time to turn things around. Under U.K. law, the next general election must be held no later than January 2025.

“It’s suddenly become real to people that they’re f*cked,” one former Cabinet minister said, reflecting on private conversations in Tory WhatsApp groups over the past few weeks.

In Westminster, high-profile speeches and public appearances by senior Tories are starting to be seen through the lens of future leadership bids. Different factions of backbench MPs are starting to cluster around potential frontrunners.

“Clearly some candidates are putting down a marker for a leadership election which may take place in 18 months,” another former minister groaned. The contest was “too early,” they complained, and “not particularly welcome.”

But welcome or not — here is POLITICO’s guide to the Tory MPs already pitch-rolling for power in the beleaguered Conservative Party.

Kemi Badenoch

Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch has long been considered a Tory dynamo to watch and remains the current favorite with bookmakers to be the next party leader.

As the Conservatives’ most prominent culture warrior — don’t mention gender neutral toilets in her presence — Badenoch is popular among those parts of the Tory party that matter these days: chiefly the Brexiteer right.

When she first ran for leader in 2022 while still a little-known junior minister, Badenoch boasted support from Michael Gove, a Tory grandee who remains one of her biggest fans. Badenoch outperformed expectations and her star has been on the rise ever since.

However, a recent row over the U.K.’s plans to scrub thousands of retained EU laws from the statute book has risked her position as the leading candidate of the Tory right.

Badenoch’s department last week announced it would water down the much-hyped Brexit bonfire bill — infuriating her party’s hardline Brexiteers. And her impatient response to their criticism in the Commons did not go down well.

“This will not have helped her leadership aspirations,” one Tory MP said, following the spiky parliamentary debate last week. “Not because of the actions she’s taken regarding the legislation, but because of the way she handled herself in dealing with the speaker and Conservative MPs.”

Despite the noisy reaction from some Brexiteer backbenchers, however, plenty of Tories quietly supported her decision. One former Tory leadership strategist said the row may even have “broadened her appeal.”

Suella Braverman

One key Tory figure stands to benefit if Badenoch does lose support from the Conservative right.

Suella Braverman has emerged as a siren of the party’s hardline Brexiteers, having risen to the post of home secretary under first Truss and then Sunak. One of her closest allies is John Hayes, a veteran Tory backbencher from the traditionalist wing of the party.

On Monday she addressed the National Conservative Conference gathering of socially conservative figures, calling for deep cuts to immigration in a speech widely seen as a leadership pitch.

Braverman is likely to boast the support of what’s left of the European Research Group of hardline Brexiteer MPs in any leadership contest, after they rowed behind her in last year’s election (she finished sixth).

However, some doubt her support would hold up among the wider Tory right. “When the time comes, they will find someone else,” another Tory MP claimed. “She’s not endearing herself to her colleagues … She’s not good at the despatch box, she’s not good out and about, she’s not good at a round table.”

Penny Mordaunt

Any Brits not already familiar with Penny Mordaunt cannot fail to have noticed her take center stage for the government in the coronation of King Charles III.

Her sword-wielding exploits won the hearts of MPs from across the House of Commons, with several lining up to dish out praise when she returned to her day job of setting out parliamentary business as Commons leader.

Her odds of taking the Tory leadership after Sunak were slashed in the aftermath. Mordaunt now sits as third favorite, behind only Badenoch and Boris Johnson (more on him shortly), with clear Brexiteer credentials in her favor.

Tory MPs, however, opted not to make Mordaunt leader in either of 2022’s leadership contests, and questions remain about where she sits politically as well as her likely policy platform. Watch for how she positions herself post-coronation as a clue to whether she hopes to make it third time lucky after the general election.

Boris Johnson

No list of future Tory leaders since about 2001 has been complete without Boris Johnson — even though he’s now held (and largely failed in) the top job.

Plenty of Tories still hold a candle for Johnson. That fact was illustrated by last weekend’s Conservative Democratic Organization conference, where a collection of disgruntled Tories gathered to moan about the defenestration of Johnson against the will of grassroots Tory members. Johnson himself wasn’t actually present.

The former Cabinet minister quoted at the top of this piece joked that Johnson could “walk naked” through their constituency and still win votes.

“The membership are angry. They voted for Boris, they voted for Liz [Truss], and now they have a leadership they didn’t vote for and that is repudiating a lot of what Boris and Liz tried to do — these are the people they f*cking voted for,” they said.

However, a different former Cabinet minister, formerly a Johnson supporter, said it would be “madness” to bring him back now. A serving minister said simply there was “no route back” for the ex-PM in light of the struggle he faces even to remain as an MP given his precariously marginal Uxbridge seat.

“Either Rishi wins the next election and keeps the leadership, or Rishi loses the election and Boris loses his seat with it,” the minister said.

Other barriers remain to the Winston Churchill-style triumphant return Johnson dreams of. One is that he is largely unpopular with the British public following the Partygate scandal. Certainly, plenty of Tory MPs remember his turbulent time in office less fondly than his supporters do.

Another is the Commons privileges committee investigation into his conduct, which still hangs over the former PM. If the investigation finds he misled parliament and recommends a suspension of more than 10 days, Johnson faces the specter of a potentially career-ending by-election in Uxbridge.

If he doesn’t survive the investigation or doesn’t fancy another tilt at the top job, maybe his close ally Priti Patel will. The former home secretary has been around the block recently, stressing her true blue credentials. Patel hasn’t been afraid to have a pop at the current administration’s record either.

David Frost and the new Nat Con kids on the block

Having famously morphed from a Remain-supporting whisky lobbyist into a Brexiteer Tory peer, David Frost is now vying to be an MP — and would eye a future leadership contest with interest.

Since he left his position as a Brexit minister in Johnson’s Cabinet in 2021, Frost has used his column in Tory bible the Daily Telegraph to call for tax cuts, the rollback of devolution and an end to the government’s drive for net-zero emissions — all hobby horse causes of the Conservative right. Frost is set to address the National Conservative Conference on Wednesday.

Also seeking to plant their flag on the right of the party are 2019 intake MPs Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger, who both addressed the conference Monday.

Cates, who is becoming increasingly visible on the right-leaning think tank speech circuit, used her speech to argue that the U.K.’s low birthrate is now the most pressing issue facing the country. She blamed this in part on “cultural Marxism,” prompting the government’s independent adviser on antisemitism to accuse her of using an antisemitic term.

Kruger meanwhile blamed the U.K.’s issues on a “new religion” of “progressive liberalism.”

Ben Wallace

Ben Wallace was conspicuous by his absence in both of last year’s Tory leadership contests. In short, he opted not to run.

The defense secretary remains a consistently strong-performing figure at the top of the Conservative Home website’s Cabinet league tables — still the most reliable method of taking the temperature of the Tory grassroots. His impressive response to the war in Ukraine has helped his stock to rise.

Whether he would actually stand next time remains the unanswered question. The other fly in the ointment for Wallace fans is that he has also been linked with the soon-to-be-vacant role of NATO secretary-general. He gave a strong indication in February that he would be interested in the job.

Were he to win the support of NATO’s 30 members, running the Western transatlantic alliance may be a more appealing prospect than leading the U.K. opposition after a crushing Tory election defeat.

James Cleverly

Two of Britain’s last five foreign secretaries rose further to become Tory leader and prime minister. James Cleverly has the potential to become the third to do at least one of those things.

As a reliable and loyal media performer for first Johnson and then Sunak, Cleverly is well-liked across the Tory party.

He initially came into politics as a close ally of then-London Mayor Johnson, before becoming an MP in 2015. Cleverly kept his Cabinet position when Sunak entered Downing Street last year, despite his previous proximity to Johnson, and his key role in the Liz Truss administration. She elevated him to the great office of state.

Liz Truss

She couldn’t, could she?

Liz Truss has kept herself busy since her traumatic spell in Downing Street came to an end after just 49 days.

The former PM has retained staff and remains an active — and noisy — backbench MP.

Most recently, she has been weighing in on geopolitics with a string of hawkish speeches on China. Truss is currently in Taiwan, where she’s making a speech Wednesday in support of the self-governing island.

That Taiwan trip follows an appearance at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, where, in an interview with POLITICO, she insisted she had “no ambitions” to be prime minister again.

But when she returns from her world tour, Truss will find plenty of Tories who agree with her hawkish views on China and continue to hold a candle for her stridently free-market, low-tax brand of Conservatism.

Just don’t mention her (lack of ) popularity with the general public.

Tom Tugendhat and the one nation pretenders

Where are the heirs to (Call Me Dave) Cameron?

The once dominant “one-nation” liberal wing of the Conservatives has been dormant since the former prime minister whistled his way out of Downing Street after losing 2016’s Brexit referendum.

Current Security Minister, Remain-supporter and Iraq war veteran Tom Tugendhat came closer than anyone else from that faction in last year’s contest to replace Johnson, finishing fifth in a crowded field.

However, Tugendhat is being talked of as a potential candidate for the London mayoralty, up for grabs next year.

If he doesn’t vie for the “one nation” crown in the next Tory contest, other candidates could emerge.

The former Tory leadership strategist quoted above said Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, could be one to watch.

“People like her, she is ballsy and has a Scouse accent, which could play well with the public,” they said.

Rishi Sunak

Of course, there need not be a contest at all — if Sunak arrests the Tories’ alarming polling and snatches victory from the jaws of defeat at the next election.

With potentially 18 months still to go until that vote, the prime minister does have relatively decent personal poll ratings on his side.

To stay on beyond 2024, Sunak wouldn’t necessarily need to win the next ballot outright, some think.

“If Rishi overachieves, and Labour doesn’t win an outright majority, there may be a case for keeping him,” the former Tory leadership strategist quoted above said.

A third former Cabinet minister agreed, suggesting there could be support for Sunak fighting on if the Conservatives lose the 2024 election narrowly — not least because a hung parliament could lead to another snap election, a few months down the line.

On hearing POLITICO’s list of would-be Tory leadership pretenders, the ex-minister was in no doubt. “If that’s the offering,” they said, “then God — we’ve got to keep Rishi.”

Emilio Casalicchio contributed reporting.