London Playbook PM: Making excuses for Nigel

Опубликовано: Wednesday, 03 January 2024 16:08

What’s driving the day in London.

By EMILIO CASALICCHIO

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Good afternoon.

WEDNESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Nigel Farage kept Westminster guessing as he failed to turn up to the big Reform U.K. press conference.

— Leader Richard Tice insisted Reform will stand in all constituencies at the next election and target both the Conservatives and Labour.

— Former UKIP MEPs tell Playbook PM Reform needs Farage to make proper progress.

— The Lib Dems promised a Westminster wheeze to pile pressure on the government about calling a spring election.

— Conservative peer Shaun Bailey and anti-Conservative math pro Carol Vorderman are having a fight.

TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

SOMETHING MISSING: Reform U.K. Leader Richard Tice delivered some fun slides attacking his opponents this morning — but Nigel Farage was a no show.

A plague on both their houses: Tice said Rishi Sunak had failed on four of his five pledges (the IfG all but agrees in its own tracker) and warned against “Starmergeddon” if Labour gets into power — arguing the opposition would do all sorts of horrible things like increase regulations.

Big talk: He said the nation wanted to “punish the Tories for breaking Britain” and vowed no “special deals” on seats at the next election. Farage stood his troops down in Conservative held seats in 2019, don’t forget. “You’ve all broken Britain, you are all responsible,” Tice told Conservative MPs.

But but but: Farage himself was nowhere to be seen at the central London press conference — an issue Tice insisted wasn’t an issue. “A good poker player doesn’t show their hand too early,” he said, while admitting: “The more help Nigel is able to give in the election campaign, frankly, the better.”

Indeed: Conservatives aren’t too fussed about Reform unless Farage is involved, as he’s catnip for a certain cohort. So it was a relief to them he didn’t attend, and they’ll hope Tice’s attempts to land blows on immigration, high taxes and crime will fail, given some Tories in the red wall see these as their weak points.

The upshot: The continued will he/won’t he around Farage was the dominant theme of the event. And it got worse afterwards when Tice told GB News’s Christopher Hope in an interview Farage is not expected to stand for a seat.

Ouch: “If Nigel isn’t one of the candidates, it means he doesn’t believe they can win a seat,” former UKIP and then Brexit Party MEP Bill Etheridge told Playbook PM. “Nigel is lending a little support to them while keeping his options open.” (Tice dismissed questions about Farage mulling a move to the Tories.)

Just for good measure: Etheridge added that:”Reform seem to think they can win an election by spouting opinions on GB News into an echo chamber.”

Speaking of echo chambers: Others who hold Farage in high regard admit Reform will struggle to win more than a few protest votes without him. Jonathan Arnott — also a former UKIP and Brexit Party MEP, but neither a supporter or opponent of Reform — argued Tice needs fired-up grassroots activists and a clear singular cause.

If Tice builds it, Farage will come: “We need to know that Reform has a soul, that it means something,” he told Playbook PM. “Nigel Farage is savvy. His experience can guide Reform through a general election, but he’ll only put his head above the parapet if he’s convinced Reform can become a long term major player in British politics.”

Farage will come regardless: Another former UKIP MEP, Patrick O’Flynn, wrote on his Substack this week Farage will “take the helm of Reform” and until then will “be free to launch salvo after salvo against this Tory shower on GB News every evening.” (h/t Alex Wickham.)

It’s not all about the Tories: Don’t forget, Tice was explicit that Reform is targeting Labour at the next election too. But the received wisdom is the group poses a greater threat to the Conservative vote, splitting it and “letting Labour in by the back door,” as polling guru John Curtice put it to the Tele’s Dominic Penna.

Driving it home: “A vote for Reform will only strengthen Labour’s hand — that means a vote for Labour’s £28 billion a year spending splurge, driving up taxes for hardworking families,” Conservative Chair Richard Holden said in a statement.

Fried Tice: The Reform leader will appear on Radio 4 at 5.30 p.m. after a whole string of interviews this afternoon, and is also due to be on Newsnight tonight

ON THE SUBJECT OF ALL THINGS FARAGE: Former UKIP Leader Henry Bolton (readers will be forgiven for not remembering who that is) was blocked from becoming a Conservative member, Chris Hope revealed this afternoon. Bolton later appeared on GB News to discuss the matter.

OH DAMN, WE BURIED THE LEAD: Playbook PM almost forgot to mention that the massive, unmissable, groundbreaking news from the Tice presser was of course that Ben Habib will be the Reform candidate in the upcoming Wellingborough by-election.

Who dat, readers ask? An ex-Brexit Party MEP and commercial property tycoon.

LIB DEM LAND

LEST WE FORGET: Lib Dem leader Ed Davey was out and about in southern seats this morning, unveiling this fetching poster about being Rishi Sunak’s removals man in the so called Blue Wall. Lib Dems in orange jumpsuits and removals boxes added to the mise-en-scène.

Latest cunning plan: He told PA the Lib Dems will propose a return of the fixed term parliament act next week, allowing MPs to dictate the next election date instead of the prime minister. Don’t go out and get a new hat for its royal assent.

Calling the shots: “People are fed up of waiting for a general election, they want change,” Davey said while wearing an orange high vis jacket, accusing the prime minister of “clinging on to power, desperate for something to turn up.” The Lib Dem leader wants the election on May 2, which is “when it should be,” apparently. Clip here.

After all that: Ed popped into the poster-sporting van for a drive around Surrey, with stops in both Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove’s seats this afternoon.

Getting a telling off: Conservative chair Richard Holden said: “The Liberal Democrats’ short-term political game playing does not address the priorities of the British people.”

More calling the shots: PolHome’s Caitlin Doherty reports local Lib Dems have business-like KPIs to meet, including numbers of doors knocked, in order to unlock election funding from HQ. “If you want to win you’ve got to prove yourself, and then you get more HQ resource,” a Lib Dem “source” told her.

Local angle: The Lib Dems also makes page 4 of the Standard this afternoon with its sums on 550,000 more Londoners being dragged into income tax as a result of frozen thresholds.

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

BREAKING: A new statement from the government and allies on the situation in the Red Sea should be landing around now.

NOT LOOKING GOOD: The Office for Statistics Regulation revealed Rishi Sunak faces a possible sanction over his claims about clearing the asylum backlog. The stats watchdog confirmed to Playbook PM it was looking into the government announcement, which faced criticism this week.

MORE ELECTION VIBES: The FT’s Jim Pickard and the Guardian’s Kiran Stacey got hold of the slides top Labour aide Morgan McSweeney presented to the shadow Cabinet last month to argue the Labour poll lead isn’t in the bag. Pickard tweeted some of them in this thread, including a visually pleasing poll from Australia, and the classic 2016 U.S. election chart, to highlight large and long-standing poll leads that were wrong or evaporated during election campaigns.

And lo … it’s little surprise Labour is being so cautious when it comes to its fiscal plans. Shadow Cabinet member Nick Thomas-Symonds was out on the broadcast round this morning complaining about Conservative “stealth” taxes but refusing to state whether Labour would reverse them. The Conservatives said Labour were “not being honest with the British people.”

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: A new review has been launched to consider how listed buildings can become more fuel efficient while preserving their heritage.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOESN’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT: Health Secretary Victoria Atkins and doctors urged each other to continue negotiating in good faith, as doctors began a lengthy strike over wages. The 337,000 operations axed in London alone due to industrial action makes page 2 of the Standard.

WHAT LABOUR WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: The opposition is accusing the government of withholding £227 million in promised funds to farmers, with Shadow DEFRA Secretary Steve Reed arguing ministers have “abandoned” agricultural businesses. The department said the claims were “untrue” because it plans to hand out bigger sums in 2024 to meet a wider funding pledge averaging £2.4 million a year. Helena Horton got the row in the Guardian.

DIY FUNDING: The family of Leonard Farruku, the man who died aboard the Bibby Stockholm, has raised more than £18,000 to transport his body back to Albania, amid a row with the Home Office over the repatriation.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

FIXED IT FOR YA: The Conservatives have turned the New Year fireworks show crediting Sadiq Khan into a political attack ad. No surprise lots of the replies point out Boris Johnson taking the credit while he was running London.

THIS WENT DOWN WELL: Conservative peer Shaun Bailey had a take on Carol Vorderman, and she had a few responses.

WEB WOES: Independent MP Andrew Bridgen (no longer of Reclaim or the Tories) appears to have lost ownership of the domain bearing his name (andrewbridgen.com,) my POLITICO colleague Bethany Dawson writes in. The website, which the North Leicestershire MP regularly updated with every one of his addresses in the House of Commons, now redirects to … an Indonesian betting site.

Check his register: Whilst Playbook PM would never want to second guess the intentions of an MP, we put money on this not being the goal, especially since Bridgen expensed more than £1,000 for website maintenance and his domain in April 2023. An alternative domain, andrewbridgen.co.uk, sends web surfers to a parliamentary standards report into the MP’s conduct. Someone get IT on the line.

AROUND THE WORLD

IN IRAN: More than 100 people were killed and dozens more injured in the Iranian city of Kerman after two explosions went off near the tomb of the late Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, where people were commemorating his death four years ago — my colleague Claudia Chiappa has a writeup.

ISRAEL-GAZA LATEST: The Israeli military increased its air defense capacity on the border with Lebanon after the killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri in the Lebanese capital Beirut, with Israel still not officially claiming responsibility. The U.N. called on all sides to deescalate as it expressed concerns about rising tensions — the BBC has a liveblog.

UKRAINE UPDATE: Ukraine launched a fresh wave of missile strikes on the Russian border city of Belgorod as Russia said it shot down 12 missiles. NATO meanwhile announced it would help buy up to 1,000 Patriot missiles so allies can better protect their territory — the Independent has more.

IN AMERICA: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. collected the required 1,000 signatures to appear on the 2024 presidential ballot in Utah, marking the first state where the independent candidate and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist has qualified — via AP.

TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: BBC News at Six leads on the first day of the junior doctors’ strike … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) focuses on developments in the Middle East including the explosions in Iran.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 7 p.m.): NHS England Medical Director for Transformation Vin Diwakar (5.05 p.m.).

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Reform UK Leader Richard Tice (5.30 p.m.) … East Suffolk and North Essex NHS Foundation Trust Chief Executive Nick Hulme.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): BMA Junior Doctors Committee Co-Chair Vivek Trivedi (5.30 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): NHS Providers Chief Executive Julian Hartley (5.10 p.m.) … Palestinian Legislative Council member Mustafa Barghouti (5.40 p.m.) … the FT’s Lucy Fisher and the i’s Paul Waugh (both after 7 p.m.).

Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Former Health Minister Ara Darzi.

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Tory MP Tobias Ellwood … former BMA GP Committee Chair Laurence Buckman.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): LabourList’s Tom Belger … Onward’s Phoebe Arslanagić-Little … political strategist Jo Tanner.

Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Richard Tice … Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper … Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Allie Hodgkins-Brown.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Former Labour MP Mary Creagh and Deltapoll’s Joe Twyman … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and the Mail’s Claire Ellicott.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

ELECTION YEAR: Labour Leader Keir Starmer will deliver a speech in the West of England from 10 a.m.

MORE ELECTION YEAR: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is holding a regional town hall event in the morning, at which regional journalists will be present.

LIVESTOCK SQUARE OFF: DEFRA Secretary Steve Barclay and his shadow Steve Reed both appear at the Oxford Farming Conference, between 10.10 a.m. and 11.15 a.m.

BROKEN BRITAIN: Junior doctor strikes continue.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PARL LUNCH: The lunch menus will return next week. Tomorrow the Despatch Box will be open from 7.30 a.m. to 5 p.m. … the Terrace Cafeteria will be open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. … and the Debate will be open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.

NEW GIGS: Onward has recruited Conservative MPs Jesse Norman and Tracey Crouch to its advisory board. Details here.

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: On her Substack, Labour activist and political consultant Emma Burnell sets out how the opposition must behave ahead of the 2024 election.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On January 3 1883 future Labour Prime Minister Clement Attlee was born, while on the same date in 1988 Margaret Thatcher became the longest serving British prime minister of the century.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.