Happy New Year from London Playbook

Опубликовано: Wednesday, 03 January 2024 04:16

What’s driving the day in London.

BY ROSA PRINCE

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Good Monday morning. This is Rosa Prince.

DRIVING THE DAY

HAPPY NEW YEAR: And welcome to 2024. Rishi Sunak is holed up in Downing Street having rung in the New Year in No. 10. There’s not a great deal happening today — but enjoy the peace while it lasts because this is going to be an election year like no other. Playbook brings you SW1’s predictions for the next 12 months below — but first let’s rattle through what’s occurring this week.

Dueling banjos: Sunak and Keir Starmer will deliver dueling speeches Thursday, setting out their priorities for the coming year. The PM will be in the East Midlands, where he will give a speech warning that an “economically illiterate” Starmer would raise taxes, followed by a Q&A. The Labour leader speaks in the South West.

Eyes emoji: Reform Leader Richard Tice holds a press conference Wednesday to set out his party’s election plans — might Nigel Farage join him to make clear his own intentions?

Also on the agenda: Junior doctors launch their longest, seven day, strike from Wednesday while, on the upside for the government, the cut in national insurance comes into force Saturday.

The big question: For the next six to nine months or so remains when Sunak will call the election, and whether Labour can hang on to its stonking lead. And it’s not just here in the U.K. that people will be going to the polls. As my colleague Nicholas Vinocur writes this morning — millions from the U.S. to Russia and Taiwan will be voting this year, yet the threat to democracy has rarely been greater.

Meanwhile: Westminster remains obsessed with the Sunday Times’ startling revelation that Sunak hosted Cummings at his Richmond constituency to discuss getting the band back together for the coming election. The Guardian’s Peter Walker and the Mail’s Claire Ellicott spoke to a number of Tory MPs who are furious at the news — with some pointing out that the PM had vowed to have nothing to do with the former Vote Leave boss. The Lib Dems questioned whether the ministerial code may have been breached, arguing the meetings should have been officially declared — one for tomorrow’s first Lobby briefing of 2024.

Problems afoot abroad: Further afield, the international picture is as unsettled as ever. Writing in the Telegraph, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps says the U.K. is prepared to launch air strikes on Houthi rebels in the Red Sea to protect international shipping.

HAVING A MOAN: In the last hour, confessed liar Michelle Mone’s husband Doug Barrowman issued a statement rejecting allegations that the couple cashed in by supplying duff PPE during the pandemic. He denied his wife profited from his firm, Medpro, and asked why other companies were not being targeted. “Michelle and I are being hung out to dry to distract attention from government incompetence in how it handled PPE procurement at a time of national emergency,” he said. Full statement on Mone’s X account here.

More follows: Tax lawyer turned investigator Dan Neidle, who brought down Nadim Zahawi last year, is promising to reveal info today on how Barrowman made his millions.

AND IF ALL THAT WASN’T WORRYING ENOUGH: In her New Year message, Liz Truss promised to make 2024 the “year of the conservative fightback for freedom, sovereignty and self-determination,” concluding “watch this space.” Ulp.

NEW YEAR PREDICTIONS

SPOT ON: The Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu said: “Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Well, the residents of SW1 sure proved him wrong last year. Playbook took a look back at the predictions made on the cusp of 2023 and found an impressively high hit rate. One even foretold the return of David Cameron (sort of). It’s almost like you guys … know what you’re on about.

Recap — and look forward: Here’s a reminder of what some of Westminster’s biggest brains predicted, how they feel they got on — and what they reckon will go down in 2024.

First up, Sky’s Sophy Ridge: In a column for the i, Ridge suggested Rishi Sunak’s prospects of turning the Tories’ fortunes around would depend on how he fared in resolving three issues: ending the strikes which were gripping us this time last year; tackling migration by stopping the boats; and keeping a lid on Reform. She told Playbook: “Predictions are always a total nightmare so will confess to being pretty relieved that my prediction that Rishi Sunak would spend 2023 leaning more hardline on immigration ended up being accurate.”

Prediction for 2024: “There’s only one prediction for 2024 that’s worth making and that’s the timing of the election. I have a two-pronged prediction. I think Rishi Sunak’s instinct is to go long — more time in office (hard to give that up) PLUS more time for those economic indicators to pick up (remember growth isn’t expected to improve much until January 2025.) BUT if he can’t get his Rwanda bill through he might not have that luxury. PMs who can’t get legislation passed are always done for. So if he fails on that I think it will be spring.”

Next up, Times’ Pol Ed Steven Swinford: In his 2023 prediction for the Times, Swinford forecast that Sunak would face unrest from his red wallers if he couldn’t get a grip on migration and calls from backbenchers for tax cuts, both strikingly apt.

Prediction for 2024: “The Tories’ flagship legislation on small boats gains royal assent in late spring but Sunak faces a potential revolt from centrists over Strasbourg injunctions. He has to decide whether to split the party by ignoring them to get flights off to Rwanda. The economy begins to improve but the Tories struggle to get credit with voters. The NHS becomes an increasingly pressing issue. General election likely in October, as senior Tories predict Labour victory unless there is an “extraordinary” turnaround by Sunak. If Labour wins, will scale of victory be enough to secure an outright majority?”

Soothsayer James Kirkup: In an amazingly on-the-nose prediction, Kirkup wrote in the Spectator that “Yesterday’s men will loom large in the politics of 2023,” under a pic of … David Cameron. He wrote of the new Lord C … “[T]here are people keen to recall him as a calmly competent technocrat who can teach others to rule well.” Kirkup said of his almost spooky foresight: “I predicted that David Cameron would lose the 2015 general election and win the 2016 referendum, so it’s very kind of him to finally prove me right about something.”

Prediction for 2024: “I’m doubling down on my prophecies about inheritance tax and forecasting that the Conservatives will fight the general election promising to abolish it outright if re-elected. I’m also glumly predicting that the underfunding of state education will continue to be given insufficient attention by politicians or an electorate that has changed — aged — a great deal since the era of education, education, education.”

BBC Political Editor Chris Mason: Of his 2023 predictions, Mason told Playbook: “I’m not a fan of predictions, firstly on the grounds of dignity preservation and secondly because if politics was predictable I’d want to work a different patch – the joy is it isn’t! Looking back at my 2023 lookahead I am relieved to see I was judiciously vague. No general election expected, strikes and inflation making news, Labour facing more scrutiny, SNP troubles, Lib Dems chipper and keep an eye on Reform. But I didn’t see David Cameron coming. Not even when the car pulled into Downing Street, at least until the door opened.”

Prediction for 2024: Noisy. I think I’ll stick with that.

Christopher Hope of GB News: In predictions for the Telegraph a year ago, Hope “hedged his bets” on whether Boris Johnson would survive the partygate investigation and reckoned the Tory right would have to wait for tax cuts. But his guess that Rishi Sunak would clear the “low bar” of equalling previously dire local election results was wide of the mark, as was his prediction of a Johnson comeback. Of his speculation that Labour would need to press home its advantage in the polls, Hope told Playbook: “Labour hasn’t really, and still has not produced its pledge card or any real consumer offer. The wait goes on.”

Prediction for 2024: “Tories will cut income tax in the Budget; Tories will lose Wellingborough and Blackpool South by-elections; general election will be in the Autumn — and (to guess) November 7, 2024; Labour should win the election judging by the polls but it will be close and a hung parliament (Labour biggest party) is possible I think; Boris Johnson will not stand to be a candidate; Reform will get its first MP.”

The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire: Maguire forecast a year of strikes, NHS collapse, the failure of the Rwanda scheme and more Tory sleaze. He says: “I thought 2023 would be bad for the Conservatives but never as awful as it proved and I, like just everybody else, didn’t foresee the wheels coming off the SNP so spectacularly.”

Prediction for 2024: “Mystic Mag’s 20p in 2024 is on a November election after the party conferences, the Tories getting the last word this autumn, with Starmer and Labour coming out on top. T&Cs apply.”

Miranda Green of the FT: Green thought it would be a rocky ride for Rishi Sunak with his backbenchers becoming ever more erratic and politically self-harming. She told Playbook: “Honestly I feel as if the PM and I have both proved we can survive that prediction but possibly not much more.”

Prediction for 2024: “No gloating for anyone or any party leader because next year is going to be a rollercoaster.”

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Nah. The Commons is in recess until Monday; the Lords don’t come back til Wednesday the 10th, the tinkers.

LOOK AWAY NOW, RISHI: As we enter an election year which the Tories are slated to lose badly, ConHome is bringing back its survey of who the Tory grassroots would like to see become leader, for the first time in two years. And it looks like the contest will be an all female affair, with Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, with 38 percent of the vote, ahead of Penny Mordaunt (23 percent) and Suella Braverman (14 percent).

Close the loophole: Badenoch is considering closing a loophole to make it harder to change gender on official documents including passports — the Mail splashes on the news.

RIGHT TO DIE: Seven out of 10 Brits favor assisted dying, with a similar number wanting MPs to have a free vote, according to a new Deltapoll survey in the Mirror.

FAMILY VALUES: Visa rules come into force today meaning most international students will no longer be able to bring dependents with them, as part of the government’s package of measures to reduce migration by 300,000. Home Sec James Cleverly said: “We have set out a tough plan to rapidly bring numbers down, control our borders and prevent people from manipulating our immigration system, which will come into force throughout this year.”

PERIOD PAINS: VAT on period pants is abolished from today, bringing them into line with other sanitary products.

WHITEHALL’S PESTMINSTER SCANDAL: Grim reading in the Guardian: Rowena Mason reports that a civil servant at the MoD has informed the Prospect trade union of sexual assaults by three separate male colleagues.

EAT BRIT: Half of all food served in schools, prisons and hospitals would have to be sourced from the U.K. under Labour plans for a “new deal for farmers.” Shadow Defra Secretary Steve Reed said the pledge would also include a new veterinary agreement with the EU and a flood taskforce. It comes as the party unveiled stats showing 6,000 agricultural businesses have gone under since 2017. Reed said: “This Conservative government has wrecked our farmers.” The Telegraph has a writeup.

What else Labour wants to talk about: Deputy Leader and Shadow Leveling up Secretary Angela Rayner highlighted stats showing another 197,000 families will come off their fixed rate mortgages this morning, and be hit with an average hike to their monthly bill of £240. She said: “Labour will get Britain building again and treat the public finances with the respect they deserve.”

FREE RECYCLING: In big state news, households will no longer have to pay to leave DIY waste at council recycling centers. Recycling Minister Robbie Moore said: “We have delivered on our promise to make it easier and cheaper for people making home improvements to get rid of their waste properly.”

PRESSURE ON: Pressure is growing on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to ditch a 20 percent levy on taxi rides, due to come into force in March. The Sun says the tax is opposed by nearly seven in 10 voters in a new poll.

BEYOND THE M25

IN DENMARK: In an announcement which shocked her people, the queen of Denmark, Margrethe II, announced during a live New Year message that she will abdicate in two weeks’ time.

UKRAINE UPDATE: Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s New Year message was absolutely nails.

GAZA UPDATE: Israel’s Defense Force said the war in Gaza could go on throughout 2024, with “prolonged fighting,” as Hamas rockets were fired across the border into Israel minutes into the new year. The Guardian has a live blog.

ONE CHINA: Chinese President Xi Jinping said his country’s reunification with Taiwan was “inevitable” in his New Year’s address Sunday — my POLITICO colleagues have more.

TSUNAMI WARNING: Evacuation alerts have been issued in Japan along with a tsunami warning following a 7.4 magnitude earthquake.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Democracy is in peril in the world’s bonanza year of elections.

Daily Express: The doctor will see you now but only for five minutes.

Daily Mail: Revealed: gender change loophole on UK passports.

Daily Mirror: Give us the choice.

Daily Star: We’re all doing wet January.

i: Police forces’ growing use of lie detectors may be illegal.

The Daily Telegraph: Shapps: UK ready to attack Houthi rebels.

The Guardian: Doctors told to consider risk of air pollution when assessing patients.

The Independent: No wonder so many women are attacked by violent partners.

The Sun: Happy Sogmanay.

The Times: No need for a passport under new border plan.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Dry start with outbreaks of rain, some heavy, in the afternoon.

SPOTTED: Tony Blair’s former Chief of Staff Jonathan Powell in the Costa at Tibshelf Services on the southbound M1 Saturday.

CONGRATS TO: Think tankers Elliot Keck of the TaxPayers’ Alliance and Morgan Schondelmeier, formerly of the Adam Smith Institute, now at the Beer and Pub Association, who got engaged during Betixtmas. Here’s the tweet.

CONDOLENCES: To the family of legendary journo John Pilger, who died Saturday. The Mirror, where he worked for many years, has a nice tribute.

NOW LISTEN TO: The Political Currency podcast — the one with Ed Balls and George Osborne — has a couple of festive specials. In the first, on the 2010 coalition talks, the lads chat to Lib Dem lead negotiator Danny Alexander. Also, on BBC Radio 4 at 9 p.m., crossbench peer Louise Casey explores the challenge of tackling rough sleeping.

THANKS, GUYS: Jenny Symonds of the GMB union has been running her own, alternative awards for parliamentary staffers on X, with categories including breaking the glass ceiling award, won by the helicopter which smashed the PCH roof.

NOW WATCH: There are loads of top films to curl up with this New Year’s Day. Check out: Babe (ITV1 10.30 p.m.) … The Wizard of Oz (Channel 5 12 p.m.) … Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (BBC2 12.45 p.m.) … Singin’ in the Rain (Channel 5 2.05 p.m.) Moana (BBC1 2.20 p.m.) The Magnificent Seven (BBC2 2.30 p.m.) … Mrs Doubtfire (Channel 4 2.55 p.m.) … My Fair Lady (4.15 p.m.) … The Witches (5.55 p.m.) … Bonnie and Clyde (BBC2 10 p.m.) … Ghostbusters (BBC1 10.55 p.m.)

WRITING PLAYBOOK TUESDAY MORNING: Dan Bloom.

BIRTHDAYS: Shadow Immigration Minister Stephen Kinnock … President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde … Downing Street Deputy Head of News Georgie Barker … Times’ Pol Ed Steven Swinford … BuzzFeed CEO Jonah Peretti turns 50 … Tory peer Nick Bourne … POLITICO’s Giulia Chiatante.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Douglas Busvine and producer Giovanna Coi.