Timmermans hunts for allies in knife-edge Dutch election race

During the last four elections, it was pretty simple in the Netherlands: The campaign was heated, the number of parties grew infinitely, political one-hit wonders came and went, and in the end Mark Rutte won.

But now that the record-holding Dutch prime minister is quitting after 13 years in office, nothing is certain anymore in The Hague.

Cue Frans Timmermans, the EU heavyweight who is leading the ticket for the Labour and Green Left alliance after these two parties joined forces in a bid to stem a decline in support for left-leaning politicians.

Timmermans is campaigning on a green and social agenda. He wants to reduce Dutch greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent by 2030 – above the 55 percent EU target – increase the minimum wage and introduce a new top rate income tax.

But he is facing fierce competition from Rutte’s successor at the the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Dilan Yeşilgöz, as well as centrist outsider Pieter Omtzigt, who is narrowly leading in polls after launching a new party just a few months ago.

The latest POLITICO Poll of Polls shows that Omtzigt’s New Social Contract is leading with 19 percent, followed by the VVD with 18 percent and the green-left alliance at 16 percent — minor differences that are likely to change as many Dutch voters tend to make up their minds in the final days before an election, according to experts.

Although the green-left alliance is currently polling third, Timmermans may still have a shot at the top job, according to the math of the fractured Dutch parliament. With more than 20 parties vying for the 150 parliamentary seats, no party is expected to win more than 30 seats.

The 62-year old is trying to lead his left-wing alliance to victory by excluding the VVD, while wooing Omtzigt, who has so far been unclear on whether he wants to be the next prime minister.

Timmermans said after a recent self-organized debate with Omtzigt that he thinks he can work with Omtzigt’s party in a coalition. “I haven’t really heard anything that we couldn’t compromise on,” he said.

However, Omtzigt was more hesitant about cooperating with the left-wing alliance, emphasizing that there are things he and Timmermans disagree on, including migration, climate policy, and nuclear energy. On migration, Omtzigt said he expected to achieve results more easily “on the right,” which includes the VVD.

The Timmermans effect

The Dutch Greens and the Labour Party have a history of cooperating. The two parties participated jointly in the 2021 coalition formation and formed a bloc in the Senate in the summer.

After the cabinet fell in July, the two parties decided to present a joint electoral list and shared policy program during the upcoming election in order to turn the tide on years of setbacks and right-wing government in the Netherlands.

Timmermans, who had already served two years as foreign minister, three years as junior minister for Europe and nine years as European Commissioner, was the dream candidate to lead the new alliance.

In 2019, he led the Labour Party to a major victory in the European Parliament elections. That was a significant win coming just two years after Labour suffered a historic electoral defeat following five disastrous years spent sharing power in government with Rutte’s party.

Timmermans got more personal votes in 2019 than any of the other parties got for their entire election list and he doubled the number of seats for his party, from three to six. For the first time since 1989, the social democrats were the largest Dutch party in Brussels.

The hope in left-wing circles now is that Timmermans can replicate this result in the national elections.

He is well-liked by the voters on the left, according to Simon Otjes, assistant professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, who said that Timmermans is valued for his multilingualism, international experience and his work on climate.

“For more right-leaning voters, however, Timmermans and his perceived arrogance and distance from the common voter symbolizes everything that is wrong with Dutch politics,” Otjes added.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing for Timmermans.

“The green-left alliance is keen to make this election a referendum on the future prime minister by creating a horse race between Timmermans and liberal leader Yeşilgöz,” Otjes said.

The hope is that Timmermans would pick up left-wing, environmentalist, progressive and pro-European voters from smaller parties like the social-liberal D66, the Euro-federalist party Volt and the deep-green Party for the Animals.