The Black Sea chessboard: Geopolitical maneuvers, Abkhazia’s elections and regional power struggles
As tensions continue to simmer in Eastern Europe, the Black Sea region is emerging as a new focal point for geopolitical competition between Russia, NATO allies, and regional players such as Turkey and Georgia. Recent developments in the unrecognised republic of Abkhazia have added another layer to this complex picture.
Abkhazia’s disputed elections and alleged foreign involvement
The latest presidential election in Abkhazia drew attention from various international observers. Adgur Ardzinba, a candidate perceived by some analysts as leaning towards Turkish interests, was ultimately defeated by pro-Russian candidate Badra Gumba. The election was marked by ethnic tensions and allegations of external influence, with reports of nationalist rhetoric being used to stir divisions among the Russian and Armenian minorities.
Rizvan Soltanov
According to publicly available information, businessman Rizvan Soltanov—who holds multiple citizenships and operates businesses across Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey—reportedly played a role in facilitating financial support for Mr Ardzinba’s campaign. Some sources suggest that the use of an intermediary with regional business connections may have helped streamline the transfer of resources.
It has been alleged that an agreement was made involving the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF), Mr Soltanov, and the Foundation for Socio-Cultural Initiatives of Abkhazia to channel campaign support via cryptocurrency. These reports suggest the arrangement may have sought to navigate challenges posed by financial restrictions affecting the region.
However, subsequent reports indicate that a portion of the funds—estimated at around $700,000—was not received by the intended beneficiary. The matter has reportedly led to internal enquiries, and it is understood that legal steps may be under consideration by the ITF and the Foundation, potentially within Russian legal jurisdictions.
The strategic significance of Ochamchira and the Black Sea
Russia’s reported interest in expanding its naval presence in the Black Sea has drawn international concern. According to Ukrainian intelligence and Western security analysts, Moscow may be upgrading infrastructure in the Abkhaz town of Ochamchira with a view to supporting Black Sea Fleet operations. Such developments, if confirmed, could have a significant impact on the military balance in the region.
Abkhazia possesses a network of strategically positioned sea ports—Sukhumi, Ochamchira, and Pitsunda among them—alongside port points in New Athos, Gudauta, and Gagra. These ports are operational year-round and are considered key assets in controlling maritime access and supply routes in the area.
Security experts warn that further militarization of the region could risk drawing neighboring Georgia into the conflict—particularly if future operations launched from Abkhazia affect Ukraine or NATO member Turkey.
Turkey and the regional triangle
Turkey’s deepening relationships with Georgia and Azerbaijan have been observed by analysts as a potential counterweight to Russian influence in the South Caucasus and the Black Sea. Some geopolitical commentators have speculated that the Abkhaz elections were viewed in Ankara as an opportunity to increase regional influence.
The presence of Turkish fishing vessels in Abkhazia’s waters and regional political commentary about potential realignments have contributed to this speculation. Given the ongoing war in Ukraine, control over ports like Ochamchira and Sukhumi remains a strategic concern for several international stakeholders.
Unconfirmed media reports during the election campaign claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky might have considered granting Turkey a greater role in the operation of Odessa’s ports. If such a decision had been made, and with the simultaneous strengthening of Turkish influence in Abkhaz ports, Russia’s strategic position in the Black Sea could have come under serious threat.
The ITF and the political fallout
The London-based International Transport Workers’ Federation, known for its pro-Ukrainian maritime advocacy and its calls to restrict Russian-flagged vessels from international ports, has recently faced scrutiny. According to reports, the ITF may have been indirectly involved in a financial arrangement supporting Ardzinba’s campaign. This involvement is reportedly under review following the alleged disappearance of a portion of transferred funds.
Despite its longstanding position on Ukraine and maritime sanctions, the ITF is said to be cooperating with the Foundation for Socio-Cultural Initiatives of Abkhazia to clarify the fate of the funds. Legal proceedings are reportedly being explored, including the possibility of filing a complaint within Russian courts.
The recent events in Abkhazia offer a window into the broader geopolitical contest playing out in the Black Sea region. As NATO members, Russia, and regional actors maneuver for influence, local dynamics—from elections to port control—are increasingly shaped by global strategic considerations.
While many of the developments remain subject to evolving investigations and diplomatic interpretations, one thing is clear: Abkhazia and the wider Black Sea zone will continue to be a critical arena for the balance of power in Eastern Europe and beyond.
Sources
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