Parliament gears up against Orbán

Опубликовано: Monday, 15 January 2024 17:12

What’s driving the day in Brussels.

By JAKOB HANKE VELA

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

Send tips here | Tweet @HankeVela | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser

RULE OF LAW

PRESSURE MOUNTS ON EU LEADERS TO REIN IN ORBÁN: MEPs are preparing for a frontal attack on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, as the country continues to block EU budget reform, including a €50 billion fund for Ukraine.

This week will determine how far Parliament wants to go — 120 MEPs from the five biggest political groups on Friday signed a petition by center-right EPP lawmaker Petri Sarvamaa urging the EU to take the next steps to limit Hungary’s voting rights.

How it works: While the EU can’t kick any country out, it can remove its voting rights to avoid further damage, via Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union. That mechanism allows EU leaders to strip another EU country of its membership rights — including voting rights — if that country is deemed to have strayed from the EU’s founding values.

On Wednesday, MEPs will debate with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel about why the Commission unfroze funds for Orbán’s regime, despite its own assessment that there’s a risk the funds could be misused due to corruption and rule-of-law concerns.

On Thursday, MEPs will vote on a resolution on Hungary. The text is still under negotiation, but could include a call on EU countries to move on with the next step — Article 7 (2). That would further increase pressure on EU countries to get tougher against Orbán’s blackmail, months before Hungary is due to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU in July.

Political hurdles: Back in 2018, Parliament voted by a two-thirds majority to trigger the first step of the procedure. But the political hurdles to remove Hungary’s voting rights remain high. The 26 other EU leaders would need to determine unanimously that Hungary is committing a “serious and persistent breach” of the EU’s founding values (such as democracy, the rule of law and the rights of minorities).

Limits of EU decision-making: The chances of Orbán actually losing any voting rights in the near future remain remote. According to several EU leaders, there is little appetite around the EUCO table to completely ostracize the Hungarian strongman — even though they also say that Orbán’s “illiberal” democracy clashes with the EU’s founding principles, and that his constant vetoes risk undermining the Union from within.

The likelier outcome is more muddling through. Leaders are already preparing to strike another compromise with Orbán to approve budget reform and Ukraine aid — even if it means giving him more veto chances in the future, diplomats and officials said.

Risky business: The risk, many of those diplomats and officials concede, is that with every short-term patch-up, the long-term problem just keeps growing. “They don’t think strategically, they just put out fires,” one critical official said about the approach of EU leaders.

Why Parliament’s vote matters: Orbán and his cronies often claim that an undemocratic Brussels is going against the will of the Hungarian people in an evil witch hunt (see below). But as this week’s initiatives show, the strongest voice against Orbán is coming from the EU’s only directly elected body.

HUNGARY SLAMS RULE-OF-LAW ‘WITCH HUNT’: A close ally of Orbán decried a “witch hunt” just before MEPs head to Strasbourg today.

Pot meet kettle: “Europe replaced democracy with hypocrisy and dialogue was replaced by a political witch hunt and blackmailing with European funds,” was how Hungarian MP Judit Varga, the country’s former justice minister, reacted to Sarvamaa’s push, in an interview with POLITICO reporter Eddy Wax on Sunday. “Article 7 is just a blackmailing tool,” she said, referring to the separate rule-of-law tussle, ongoing since 2018.

EU politics boring? Varga, who is poised to lead Orbán’s Fidesz party’s list at the June EU election, said other member countries are “even bored” of the Article 7 process involving Hungary, which is a “painful burden” for those countries’ diplomats. “If you don’t fit the [EU] line then you will be somehow blackmailed and this is a typical example of how Article 7 is functioning,” Varga argued.

On the fund for Ukraine: “The Hungarian government has introduced amendments which are constructive,” Varga said of the €50 billion fund for Ukraine. “One is to have a time span [that is] a bit more rational.” Hungary has signaled it could end its opposition to using the EU budget to send money to Ukraine ― but only on condition it be allowed to vote on disbursements annually.

Top jobs race: As for whether Varga — who spent nine years in the EPP group in the Parliament — could be in line to be Hungary’s next EU commissioner, she said: “I have no ambitions like this. This is a very honest answer to a newspaper like yours, which always distorts information.” Ouch!

ALSO KEY THIS WEEK: RESURGENCE OF FASCISM: Parliament will on Tuesday debate the resurgence of fascism in Europe — amid alarming developments in Germany, France and Italy.

In Germany: Tens of thousands, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, took to the streets over the weekend in protest against the far right. Politicians and activists across the political spectrum urged Germans to fight back against the far-right AfD party and its threats to the democratic system, after it emerged that leaders of the party attended a meeting with neo-Nazis, where they discussed how to push out people that they consider not to be German enough.

Polls show a surge of the far right in France and Italy too. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni recently refused to criticize members of her party for attending a meeting of fascists.

MORE ON UKRAINE

EU LEADERS STRIKE SECURITY PACTS: U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a multi-year security pact with Ukraine on a surprise visit to Kyiv on Friday. Britain will commit to £2.5 billion (€2.9 billion) in military aid to Ukraine for 2024.

More, more I say: The promise comes after Germany vowed to double its military aid to Ukraine this year to €8 billion. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier this month issued an unusually stark warning that EU countries were not delivering enough aid, calling on his counterparts to do more.

Séjourné’s trip: France’s new Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said on Saturday in Kyiv that Ukraine will remain “France’s priority” hailing a “new phase” of joint weapons production with Kyiv during a press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba. France has also been negotiating a security pact with Ukraine but the details have yet to be announced.

Who’s next? Poland’s Donald Tusk is expected to visit Kyiv this week, possibly on Monday. Clea Caulcutt has more on the various pledges to Ukraine.

Reminder: According to the Kiel Institute, which tallied up military aid to Ukraine in the public domain, Germany was the second-highest donor last year after the U.S., with €17.1 billion; it was followed by the U.K. with €6.6 billion and by Nordic and eastern EU countries. France, in comparison, has only contributed €0.54 billion, Italy €0.69 billion and Spain €0.34 billion.

TAIWAN’S ELECTION

CHINA-SKEPTIC LAI WINS TAIWAN PRESIDENCY: William Lai, an advocate of maintaining distance from mainland China’s communist regime to protect Taiwan’s democracy, won the presidential election on Saturday — setting the country on track to intensify efforts to diversify trade and investment away from mainland China.

ICYMI: Here are five things to know about the new president, from my colleague Stuart Lau in Taipei.

Diversifying Taiwan’s economy: The 64-year-old is likely to “accelerate” efforts to invest abroad and diversify the economy to protect it from a potential Chinese attack, Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis and a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, told POLITICO following Lai’s victory.

What it means for the EU: In remarks to Playbook, García-Herrero pointed out that Taiwan “is becoming a relevant investor globally, but invests comparatively little in Europe. The EU should seek a framework to promote investment with Taiwan.”

DAVOS DEALINGS

THE DAVOS DIRTY DOZEN: It’s that time of year again: Leaders, business titans, philanthropists and celebs descend on the Swiss ski town of Davos to discuss the fate of the world at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. As always, the Davos great and good will be rubbing shoulders with some of the world’s absolute top-drawer dirtbags. Playbook’s Zoya Sheftalovich has put together a helpful guide to the worst of the worst on the guestlist.

Zelenskyy’s mission: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is heading to Davos, with one thing top of mind — trying to make the case that Ukraine deserves continued backing because its fight for democracy will affect the entire free world. Nahal Toosi has more on Zelenskyy’s quest. He is expected to address the forum on Tuesday.

SPEAKING OF DAVOS DIPLOMACY — CHINA FREAKOUT: POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi has this killer scoop this morning: U.S. officials are worried about the size — and the intent — of the Chinese delegation hitting Switzerland this week. Though President Xi Jinping is skipping Davos, the Chinese are back in full force as they try to charm global investors, seeking to boost their sluggish economy. Premier Li Qiang, who delivers a keynote speech Tuesday, leads the delegation.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE: Global Playbook has all the details for you this morning. Sign up to get the latest news, gossip and drama from Davos, every day, by Suzanne Lynch.

**Grab your skis, winter jacket and Global Playbook — you’re coming to Davos with us. Listen in on the inside chatter of the World Economic Forum with our global newsletter, anchored by Suzanne Lynch. Be in the know — and never miss a beat. Register here.**

IN OTHER NEWS

TODAY’S MUST-READ: CAN ANYONE STOP VDL? For a brief moment last year, it looked like Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second term as Commission president might be in trouble. Not so now, my colleagues Barbara Moens, Carlo Martuscelli, Clea Caulcutt and Jacopo Barigazzi write in a tour de force out this morning. As the race for the EU’s top jobs kicks off, the “queen” in the Commission is the woman to beat — though as my colleagues report, the trouble for von der Leyen is that her key strength (her decisiveness), is turning out to be one of her biggest vulnerabilities.

PLENKOVIĆ FOR COUNCIL CHIEF? Meanwhile, Croatia’s President Zoran Milanović on Friday accused the country’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenković of secretly aspiring to “take Charles Michel’s place” as European Council president and keeping secret the date of the country’s parliamentary election — which is due by September, but could be held earlier — as part of his bid. “The EU is in a problem because the majority do not want Orbán to be the temporary head of the Council … which is ideal for Plenković,” Milanović said, adding the PM should be open about his ambitions. H/t Seb Starcevic.

DRAGHI WARNING: Former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi warned commissioners at a seminar on Friday that the EU now lags behind competitors — including the U.S. and China — in both geopolitical and economic terms, according to a readout from one of his aides, my colleague Giovanna Faggionato writes in to report. Draghi cited game-changing factors, such as the 2016 election of Donald Trump, the green transition and the advent of artificial intelligence. The war in Ukraine has only confirmed the Continent’s weaknesses, he said. He also said that he’s open to input for a report on competitiveness he’ll deliver later this spring.

POLAND’S RULE OF LAW: Poland’s new Justice Minister Adam Bodnar is in the hot seat when it comes to undoing eight years of policy by the Law and Justice party. Jo Harper sat down with him in Warsaw, with Bodnar telling him: “We must tread carefully and legally.” Read the interview here.

MICROPLASTIC GETS POLITICAL AS IT WASHES ASHORE IN SPAIN: In Northern Spain’s Galicia, the ruling conservative Popular Party is facing a toxic election challenge from another “PP” — plastic pollution. Since mid-December, millions of microplastics have washed up on the coast of Galicia in the form of plastic pellets — the raw plastic beads used to make new products — after a ship spillage in the Atlantic last month. Read more from my colleague Leonie Cater.

BRITAIN UNDER PRESSURE IN CYPRUS FOR HOUTHI BOMBINGS: Activists protested on Sunday outside the British Akrotiri military base in Cyprus, demanding its closure. British jets that took part in bombing raids in Yemen against the Houthi militia took off from the Cypriot base. Activists accuse Britain of turning Cyprus into a potential target, my colleague Nektaria Stamouli reports. The British government said the planes based in Cyprus were also helping to deliver aid to Gaza.

AGENDA

— The World Economic Forum takes place in Davos, Switzerland. Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson participates in a panel on “Accelerating the Transition to Sustainable Infrastructure” … Innovation Commissioner Iliana Ivanova participates in the session “Energy Innovation Ecosystems” and “Open Forum: Liberating Science.” Sign up to POLITICO’s Global Playbook for daily coverage.

— High Representative Josep Borrell is in Guatemala; visits the Petén Department … meets local civil society leaders, local associations, and implementing partners of the EU working to preserve the rainforest … gives a press conference regarding new EU cooperation projects in the area at 8:30 p.m. (CET). Watch.

— Informal meeting of environment ministers. Doorsteps at 9:15 a.m. Watch. Full agenda.

— Eurogroup meeting. Arrivals and doorsteps at 2 p.m. … press conference at 5:30 p.m. Watch.

— The European Parliament’s plenary session starts in Strasbourg. Resumption of session at 5 p.m. with introductory remarks by President Roberta Metsola … debate on gas emissions at 5:30 p.m. … debate on markets in financial instruments regulations at 6:30 p.m. Full agenda. Watch.

— Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas is in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; meets President Sadyr Japarov, Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov and Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev. Press conference, timing TBC. Watch.

— Crisis Management Commissioner Janez Lenarčič receives Director of Al-Mezan Center for Human Rights in Gaza and Commissioner General of The Palestinian Independent Commission for Human Rights Issam Younis.

— Financial Services Commissioner Mairead McGuinness attends the launch ceremony of a commemorative coin celebrating the Belgian presidency of the Council of the EU … meets with President of the European Investment Bank Nadia Calviño … meets with Micheal O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: Rain with possible snow, and a high of 2C.

(NOT) MAKING THE TRAINS RUN ON TIME: Train punctuality in Belgium reached a five-year low in 2023, according to data published by railway infrastructure manager Infrabel on Friday. Just 87.5 percent of trains ran on time last year.

BRUSSELS-LUXEMBOURG TICKET OFFICE: The ticket offices at the Brussels-Luxembourg and Etterbeek train stations will only be open on weekends as of March 1. The SNCB decided to reduce the opening times as 90 percent of passengers buy their tickets online.

POSSIBLE VISA-FREE TRAVEL TO CHINA: Belgians could soon be exempt from visa requirements for short-term travel to China, Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib announced Friday, following her visit to the country. Citizens from France, Italy, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands can currently travel visa-free to China.

CHRISTMAS-TREE THROWING CHAMPIONSHIP: Around 800 people participated in the eighth Christmas-tree throwing championship held in Brussels’ municipality of Auderghem on Saturday. This year’s champion Alexandre Rossini won with an 8.72 meter throw.

PILOT STRIKE: Two-thirds of the 112 flights scheduled to take off on Saturday from Brussels Airport were canceled due a pilot strike announced a day before.

BRUSSELS WOMEN100 INITIATIVE: The next edition of restless.brussels — a series of discussions in English on various Brussels-related topics — will focus on the role of the W100 initiative, a community of women based in Brussels. The event takes place on Thursday, and you can register here.

BIRTHDAYS: MEP Markus Ferber; Former MEPs Michel Dantin, Fernando Ruas, Catherine Trautmann and Daciana Sârbu; Belgian politician Sophie Wilmès; Portugal’s Ambassador to the EU Pedro Lourtie; Richard Hudson from Science|Business; Borderlex Publishing’s Robert Francis; Former U.S. Ambassador to the EU Stuart E. Eizenstat; European Commission’s Lorena Boix Alonso; Princess Michael of Kent; Former head of communications at IPCC Jonathan Lynn; CBS News’ Sarah Svoboda; Serbian Ambassador to Croatia Jelena Milić, a POLITICO 28 alum; Amanda Sloat, former senior director for Europe at the National Security Council and former Robert Bosch senior fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings.

THANKS to Eddy Wax, Giovanna Faggionato, Antonia Zimmermann, Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová, editor Jack Lahart and producer Seb Starcevic.